Starmergeddon! The key House of Commons seats where just a handful of votes for Nigel Farage’s Reform would hand Labour a ‘super-majority’

The rise of Nigel FarageThe Reform UK party threatens to win over an already healthy majority Work in destruction for the Conservative Party.

Last week’s seismic YouGov poll, which placed Reform above the Tories for the first time, was the so-called ‘crossover’ moment that Rishi Sunak had feared.

Senior Tories, led by Chancellor Jeremy Huntare now openly expressing a previously private fear: that Farage’s candidates will divide the right-wing vote so severely that the ‘socialist’ Sir Keir Starmer will win a supermajority, which will give him a ‘blank check’ Downing Street.

When the election was called, there were 357 Tory MPs in the House of Commons. This is likely to fall to 200 – at best – by July 4, but it could fall to 100 or even lower if reforms continue, meaning Starmer would be well above 100. Tony Blair‘s majority of 179 seats in 1997.

Image showing all seats at risk of a Labor ‘supermajority’

Last week’s seismic YouGov poll, which placed Reform above the Tories for the first time, was the so-called ‘crossover’ moment Rishi Sunak had feared

Senior Tories, led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, are now openly expressing a previously private fear: that Farage’s candidates will split the right-wing vote

Tory strategists hope to avoid a Starmer supermajority by convincing voters to back the Conservatives in seats where the combined Tory and Reform vote is larger than Labour’s – but where Starmer’s candidate would sneak through the middle if the vote is split to stay.

It only takes a five percent swing from reforms to the Tories in tight constituencies to reduce the expected Labor majority from 228 to 132 seats.

The Mail on Sunday has analyzed the 40 seats where a vote for reform is most likely to see Labor win the constituency.

At the top of the list are Chatham and Aylesford, in Kent, where Dame Tracey Crouch is stepping down as a Tory MP.

Despite a Conservative majority of 18,540 in 2019, the latest local polls put Labor ahead – but by just 0.1 per cent.

So it would only take a handful of voters to switch from Reformist Thomas Mallon to Tory candidate Nathan Gamester for the Conservatives to take the seat.

Top of the list with a Labor supermajority is Chatham and Aylesford, in Kent, where Dame Tracey Crouch is stepping down as Tory MP

Labor leader Keir Starmer on the campaign trail. Local polls show reform at 14 percent, highlighting how comfortably the two right-wing parties would beat Labor if they joined forces.

Local polls show reform at 14 percent, highlighting how comfortably the two right-wing parties would beat Labor if they joined forces.

Farage’s former party, Ukip, performed strongly in the seat, winning 19.9 percent of the vote in the 2015 election. Nearly two-thirds of the constituency voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

Second on the list of seats where Labor is likely to secure a vote for Reform is the previously safe Tory constituency of Mid Bedfordshire, which was lost to Starmer in a by-election last October following the resignation of former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries. Her majority of 24,664 votes became a victory of 1,192 votes for Labour.

According to the latest opinion polls, Starmer’s party is ahead of the Tories by 0.3 percent. However, an estimated 12 percent of voters plan to support the reform.

Former Theresa May adviser Nick Timothy is defending a 23,194 majority from former Health Secretary Matt Hancock in West Suffolk, but YouGov constituency polls give Labor a 0.4 percent lead there.

But if the 14 percent of local voters who plan to support Reform’s David Bull instead backed the Tories, Timothy would win with a comfortable majority.

Even in the fortieth constituency on our list, North Somerset, Tory candidate Liam Fox will spoil the role of Farage’s candidate Alexander Kokkinoftas. According to YouGov, Labor is ahead in the seat with 5.2 percent, but support for Reform is at 9.7 percent – ​​more than enough to hand it back to former Defense Secretary Fox.

The latest YouGov survey showed that Labor was supported by 38 percent of voters ahead of the July 4 general election, while the Conservatives were backed by 18 percent.

Boris Johnson yesterday warned of the ‘Starmergeddon’ of a Labor supermajority, saying he feared that ‘the people of this country will send such a huge wave of finger-poking, Palestinian flag-waving Corbynistas to Westminster… that the ruling party will have to occupy both sides of the House of Commons.’ He wrote in his Daily Mail column: ‘According to current forecasts, Labor will have 461 MPs, the Tories 80 – and the overall majority for Keir Starmer will be 292.

‘Yes, it won’t just be a majority bigger than Blair or Thatcher. If these polls are correct, the next Labor majority will be about as big as Blair and Thatcher’s majorities COMBINED.’

The former prime minister added: “We have to face reality. Whatever the polls say about the wave of reform, there is only one way to stop a Starmer government, or reduce the size of a Starmer majority, and that is to vote Conservative.

‘Neither the liberals nor the reformists have the slightest chance of forming the opposition – not in parliament, not on a first-past-the-post basis. Under that system, general elections are a bit like a very long bath – in that the water gently laps left and right and back again.

“But if these numbers are correct, the wave will be so big that it will wash over the end of the pool in a catastrophe.”