US official says spy satellites detected explosion just before dam collapse

WASHINGTON — A senior Biden administration official says U.S. spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed, but U.S. analysts still don’t know who caused the dam’s destruction or exactly how it happened.

The official said satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a large explosion just before the dam collapsed, releasing massive amounts of water downstream.

US intelligence analysts suspect Russia was behind the dam’s destruction, said the senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. But he added that US spy agencies still lack solid evidence about who was responsible.

Engineering and ordnance experts have said a deliberate explosion at the Kakhovka dam, which is controlled by Russia, most likely triggered Tuesday’s collapse. They added that structural failure or attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations.

The administration official did not rule out the possibility that previous damage to the dam or increasing water pressure may have contributed to the collapse, but US officials believe the explosion, whether intentional or accidental, was the likely trigger.

Experts had warned earlier this week that the available evidence was very limited, but they said an explosion in an enclosed space, with all its energy directed at the structure around it, would do the most damage. Even then, they said, it would take at least hundreds of pounds of explosives to breach the dam.

An external detonation from a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam and would require an explosive many times larger to produce a similar effect.