‘Everything Will Die’: A dam explosion threatens Ukraine’s vital lifeline

The view from villagers’ gardens on the northern shore of the Kakhovka Reservoir has changed significantly in the four days since an explosion destroyed the nearby dam and the water receded.

Mudflats stretch for hundreds of meters and a long sand bar has emerged from the water and extends across the bay. Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, just four miles across the water on the southern coast, where it is under Russian military control, seems closer. The water has already dropped below the critical level to restore water to the factory, Ukrainian officials said.

In communities downstream, the water released by the burst dam flooded homes within hours of the explosion, sweeping away property and livestock. For those living upstream, the disaster has unfolded in slow motion, with the reservoir sinking three to four feet a day.

“Everything dies,” said Tetyana, 64, as she walked through her vegetable and fruit garden, with young tomato plants on her left and redcurrant and blackcurrant bushes on her right.

The taps in her village, Prydniprovske, had run dry in the morning, said Tetyana, who, like other local residents, kept their surnames secret for security reasons. She had managed to do a wash just in time. And the pipe she used to water the vegetables had also dried up.

Built 75 years ago, the Kakhovka Reservoir is the largest freshwater lake in Ukraine and is the life and livelihood of communities across a vast region. The water feeds everything from small homes to major industries, with gardens, vineyards, shipping companies and steel mills all relying on the reservoir.

Now they are all threatened. The towns and villages that have sprung up around the reservoir are facing hardship, even extinction, endangering a critical pillar of the Ukrainian economy.

“It is probably the biggest ecological disaster in the history of independent Ukraine,” said Oleksii Vasyliuk, the head of the board of directors of the Ukrainian conservation group, referring to the period since the breakup of the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago.

The stocks of freshwater fish, he said, would most likely wash away into the sea and die in the saltwater. The shellfish would perish in the mud if the waterway dried out.

Pollution from nearby industrial facilities, which had largely settled at the bottom of the reservoir, would now be disturbed. While some would be washed downstream into the Black Sea, much would be exposed and as the mud dried, the pollution would be dispersed by the wind. He said it would be necessary to plant wild grass in the empty reservoir to prevent it from turning into a toxic dust bin.

Officials speak of the need to wait for the river to stabilize. By the weekend, they expect the reservoir to be mostly empty and any remaining water behind what’s left of the dam to settle.

“It’s hard to predict,” says Viktor Nedria, the head of the Maryanske village council. “It depends on the level of destruction. When the lower part of the dam is there, we’ll have some water. When it’s all gone, we’ve lost everything.”

Their stocks are sufficient for the foreseeable future. Villagers had stored water that could last for days. Local authorities also plan to transport water to communities. But in the longer term, locals are considering huge losses to their livelihoods.

“They understand,” Mr. Nedria said. “The questions are quiet, but you can see it in their eyes.”

Officials, businessmen and scientists are already calculating the lasting and disastrous consequences. More than half a million acres of farmland, which depends on the reservoir for irrigation, would be decommissioned, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement last week. The southern region of Kherson would be the hardest hit, as well as the neighboring regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.

“The fields in southern Ukraine could turn into deserts as early as next year,” the ministry said.

The farmers and traders already know.

“Everything will dry up and there will be no harvest,” says 32-year-old Ivan, a trader from Kryvyi Rih town who bought strawberries from villagers next to the reservoir in Maryanske village to sell in town.

One of the oldest vineyards in Ukraine, Stoic Winery, which is located on the banks of the reservoir just above the Khakovka Dam, has been directly affected.

Andrii Strilets, the winery’s CEO, said he should look for other sources of irrigation further afield. In particular, he fears that a change in microclimate due to the loss of the reservoir will jeopardize the future of some of his grapes.

The vineyard has been around for over 100 years, since Tsarist times, when it was known as Prince Trubetsky Winery. It has already suffered, it has been closed since last year after being occupied by Russian troops for months, and it remains inaccessible due to landmines.

Any change in climate can cause permanent damage.

“In a week I will know what will happen to which grape, which will not survive,” he said. “We had some unique varieties. They needed moist air from the water.”

The Kakhovka Dam was the gateway to the Dnipro River, a wide and historic waterway that until last year was a busy transport route for grain shipments and other materials. Nearby ports handled 12 million tons of cargo annually, mostly grain for export, but also construction materials and other products, he said, and the terminals alone employed 1,000 people. Most were built by international investors, including major U.S. farms.

The route has been out of use since Russia invaded and took control of the lower part of the river. Now more than a dozen transportation terminals and two river ports have been rendered useless by the reservoir’s draining, said Yevhenii Ihnatenko, the head of the Shipping Administration.

The locks and lock gates that barges and other vessels used to pass through the dam have been blocked by broken rock and debris from the explosion, so they cannot cross the river, he added.

Life on the coast has been suspended, first by the ongoing war and now by the destruction of the dam.

Piers stretch into the mud and boats lie on the beaches half a mile from the water.

A modern grain silo, unused since the Russian invasion last year, was now redundant as the wharf where goods were loaded onto ships now faces empty mud flats.

In another bay in the Nikopol district, 10 barges and a handful of tugs lay on their sides in the mud. The small bay was almost completely empty and the wrecks of wooden fishing boats were sticking out above the brown silt.

Industries around the reservoir have already been seriously affected. Ukraine’s largest metallurgical plant, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, announced shortly after the dam’s destruction that it had suspended steel production to reduce water consumption and ease pressure on water supplies.

There is also increasing concern for the nuclear power plant on the other side of the water. By Thursday night, the reservoir’s water had dropped below the lowest point for pumps to operate normally to supply the plant, said Ihor Syrota, the head of an energy company, Ukrhydroenergo.

But the power plant still managed to pump cooling water from the reservoir, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a statement. post on Twitter.

People living opposite the factory are increasingly concerned about its fate, says Tetyana, 57, a literature teacher in Maryanske village.

“I follow the official announcements because we need to take action in time,” she said. “We packed bags, food in boxes. We have a pool of water – we cover it in case of radiation.”

Oleksandr Chubko And Dyma Shapoval reporting contributed.