Ukraine may finally get the F-16s it asked for Why did it want them?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than a year ago, officials in Kiev have asked their Western allies to supply the country’s air force with advanced fighter jets such as the F-16. But the United States, which produces the fighter jet, has long been reluctant to supply it, or allow other countries that have F-16s to re-export them to Ukraine.

US officials feared the jets could be used to hit targets in Russia, potentially escalating the conflict, and said sending other weapons to Ukraine was a higher priority. But President Biden reversed course on Friday, telling allies he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on the F-16 and the United States would work with other countries to supply Kiev with the jets.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine welcomed what he called “the historic decision of the United States” and said it would “greatly strengthen our military in the air”.

Here’s what we know about how the move could affect the Ukrainian Air Force.

How strong is the Ukrainian Air Force?

Ukraine inherited a sizeable but aging fleet of Soviet-designed fighter jets and helicopters, which is a legacy of its history as part of the former Soviet Union. The Ukrainian air force fleet includes fighter jets such as the MiG-29, bombers and transport and training aircraft, Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the force, said in an interview on Saturday.

Western military analysts estimate that Ukraine’s combined fleet, which belongs to the air and ground forces, has been depleted by more than a third since the start of the Russian invasion. Ukraine has lost at least 60 of its 145 fixed-wing aircraft and 32 of its 139 helicopters, according to US military information that was among classified material leaked on the social media platform Discord in recent months. The document was undated.

The Ukrainian Air Force rarely discloses numbers about its fleet or other details, including incidents of aircraft shot down or otherwise destroyed. But officials have acknowledged some losses over the course of the war, as well as problems with the repair and replacement of damaged aircraft.

“The latest plane is from 1991,” Colonel Ihnat said. “And all this must be maintained, repaired and spare parts obtained.”

Obtaining spare parts has become a problem as Russia is the sole producer of many of those parts. Even before the full-scale invasion, trade in such items had largely ceased after 2014, when Russian-backed forces took control of parts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.

Overall, the Ukrainian Air Force is “technologically superior and heavily outnumbered” compared to the Russian Air Force, according to a November report by the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London.

How do the Ukrainians use their planes?

When Russian forces jammed Ukrainian air defense systems in the early days of the war, Ukrainian Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-27 fighters provided air defense over most of the country, engaging in air-to-air combat to thwart Russian bombing raids. according to the the institute’s report.

Ukrainian warplanes inflicted some losses on Russian aircraft, but also “inflicted serious casualties,” the report said. The Ukrainians suffered losses in a few friendly fire incidents in the days that followed as they rushed to introduce new air defense systems.

Nevertheless, despite having a superior fleet, Russia has failed to achieve air supremacy over the whole of Ukraine, thanks to the Ukrainians’ strong air defenses. Those defenses have become increasingly robust as Western countries have contributed some of their most advanced weaponry.

The Ukrainian Air Force continues to conduct combat missions and Ukrainian planes and helicopters often fly close to the eastern front line. In recent weeks, Poland and Slovakia have supplied Ukraine with replacement MiG-29s, the first transfers the country has received to boost its depleted fleet. Some cannot be repaired and will be used for spare parts, Colonel Ihnat said.

Still, Ukrainian jets and helicopters are vulnerable to Russian air defense systems and limit their actions so as not to stray into Russian-controlled territory. Ukrainian jets and attack helicopters have developed a tactic of flying low, firing unguided missiles from Ukrainian territory, then immediately ducking to avoid anti-aircraft fire. Russian aircraft use similar tactics, but have the advantage of superior firepower, allowing them to fire missiles and glider bombs from a greater distance.

“Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war,” said the RUSI Institute’s report, “so even a small number of Western fighters could have a major deterrent effect.”

Why do the Ukrainians want the F-16?

The Ukrainians don’t just want to use the jets as a deterrent.

A group of Ukrainian MPs speaking at Germany’s Marshall Fund in Washington last month said they wanted the F-16 because its radar can pinpoint targets on the ground hundreds of miles away, allowing pilots to stay safely over Ukrainian territory while launching weapons at them. Russian occupied territories.

Colonel Ihnat said the aircraft is not only used for air defense, i.e. to shoot down incoming Russian missiles and drones, but can also provide cover for Ukrainian forces trying to advance in a counter-offensive. He noted that it could also be used to repel Russian aircraft that have begun launching guided bombs from at least 30 miles from the Ukrainian front line; to defend the sea route allowing Ukrainian grain to leave the country; and to gain air supremacy over the Russian-held territories of Ukraine.

None of those goals can be achieved with Ukraine’s current fleet of Soviet-designed aircraft, he said.

“The fleet is super old,” Colonel Ihnat said. “We have four to five times less planes than the Russians, and the range of the planes is four to five times less than the Russians.”

How would the F-16 increase Ukraine’s capabilities?

The small, single-engined and highly manoeuvrable fighter-bomber has long been a mainstay of the US Air Force, which used it extensively in combat during the 1991 Gulf War, in the Balkans and in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

According to an air force description of the fighterthe F-16 can fly at twice the speed of sound and is capable of hitting targets on the ground more than 500 miles away while defending itself with air-to-air missiles.

Western and Ukrainian military analysts have said that the Ukrainian air force needs such modern Western fighters and missiles to sustainably hold back Russian aircraft, which have greater firepower, and hold their own against the Russian juggernaut, which has relentlessly used bombers to big cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut to take them.

While Mr Biden does not believe fighter jets will play a significant role on the Ukrainian side of the conflict for a while, it is part of thinking about how to defend Ukraine even after the current phase of the war is over.

Ukrainian officials have long said that Ukraine needs an army equipped and trained to NATO standards with modern aircraft to guard its border with Russia in the long term. The decision to supply F-16s to Ukraine suggests that the Biden administration and its allies now believe so too, and that even if there is a negotiated end to the fighting – perhaps a Korea-style ceasefire – Ukraine needs a long term will have the ability to deter an angry, sanctioned Russia.

Oleksandr Chubko contributed reporting from Odessa, Ukraine, John Ismay from Washington and David Sanger from Hiroshima, Japan.