In European Tour, Zelensky reaps billions more in promised military aid

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has been promised billions of dollars in new military aid in a whirlwind tour of European allies that reflects a striking shift in the political landscape as Europe takes a more central role in arming Ukraine for its anticipated counter-offensive to overthrow Russia. expel from its territory.

Zelensky’s four-country tour began in Italy on Saturday and ended in Britain on Monday, when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged to deliver a large package of air defense missiles and attack drones. That was in addition to Britain’s recent delivery of long-range cruise missiles. And it followed Germany’s promise to give Ukraine a nearly $3 billion arms package, as well as less concrete promises of additional weapons from France and Italy.

Europe’s support for Ukraine, analysts said, underscores that the war is at a critical stage, with Ukrainian troops moving en masse for a counter-offensive that could set the terms for future negotiations with Russia. It also reflects a recognition that support for Ukraine in the United States, still by far the largest supplier of arms, is likely to come under pressure.

Mr. Zelensky is concerned that as the US presidential race heats up, President Biden will be less able to lead diplomatic efforts, German and Ukrainian officials said. Should a Republican win the White House, officials fear the leadership of Western allies will collapse.

“This is a pivotal moment in Ukraine’s resistance to a terrible war of aggression that they did not choose or provoke,” Mr Sunak said in a statement, as he welcomed Mr Zelensky to Checkers, the British leader’s residence outside London.

Mr Zelensky, who hugged Mr Sunak after climbing out of a helicopter, described the meetings as “substantial negotiations” and referred to Mr Sunak in a post on Twitter as “my friend Rishi”. The two met in a room used by Winston Churchill to write his rally-the-nation radio broadcasts during World War II.

Mr Zelensky held equally warm meetings on Sunday with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany in Berlin and President Emmanuel Macron of France in Paris; and with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy in Rome, where he also met Pope Francis on Saturday. Mr. Zelensky emerged from his visits with at least the promise of more guns.

The new long-range missiles, attack drones and tanks and other armored vehicles secured from allies in recent days will meet many, but not all, of the weapons requirements Ukraine needs for a counter-offensive.

“The trajectory across Europe is to do more,” said Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London. “That is partly about the evolution of European politics. It is also driven by the expectation that the coming months will be critical and that things could go either way.”

“The prospect of a hesitant American commitment as we approach the election is in the back of people’s minds,” added Mr. Chalmers. “That has led to a desire to get Ukraine in the best possible position ahead of the negotiations.”

White House officials have privately said they are confident they have bipartisan support in Congress to continue helping Ukraine in the near term, but they have not sought additional financial aid since the Republicans took over the House and so have that assumption. not tested.

Taken together, military analysts said, the European reinforcements make it very likely that Ukrainian forces will soon hit back at Russian forces controlling the south of the country in what could be one of the bloodiest parts of the 15-month war. Mr. Zelensky had warned that without more weapons the counter-offensive could be delayed.

Germany was the first to answer its call: its commitment included 30 additional Leopard tanks, 20 armored fighting vehicles, 16 air defense systems, more than 200 drones and a host of other weapons and ammunition.

The leopards and armored fighting vehicles could be useful in reclaiming territory, as the grassy steppe in southern Ukraine is suitable “for tank or maneuver warfare,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a former Danish army intelligence officer who is now is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.

The British missiles and drones, he added, could be used to attack Russian bases in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow seized after a disputed referendum in 2014.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims the long-range missile known as Storm Shadow has already been fired by troops in eastern Ukraine, wounding six civilians on Saturday. The claim could not be independently verified and there was no comment from Britain.

The Kremlin expressed anger at Britain’s promise. “We are extremely negative about it,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov said, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. But he added that the weapons would have “no significant impact” on the war.

The United States has resisted sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, in part to prevent the conflict from escalating with weapons that could reach into Russian territory. That is also one of the reasons why the Biden administration has not acted on Ukraine’s requests for US-made F-16 fighter jets.

However, US officials have said they will not stop other states from sending their own weapons to Ukraine. And analysts said Britain would not have given the long-range missiles without Washington’s tacit approval.

Mr Sunak promised to start training Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-16s this summer. Mr Macron also said in a televised interview on Monday that France and other European countries have “opened the door for pilot training” and that “training can begin immediately”. He added that “discussions are underway with the Americans”.

Europe’s increased commitments, analysts say, reflect growing confidence that Ukrainian forces can make decisive breakthroughs with their counter-offensive. Expelling Russia from Ukrainian territory would greatly increase Mr. Zelensky’s influence in any negotiations with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.

“We wouldn’t be sending so many weapons to Ukraine at this point if we thought they were unlikely to succeed,” said Mr. Kirkegaard. “Nothing is certain, but we in the West seem increasingly optimistic about Ukraine.”

In February, on his first visit to Western Europe after the outbreak of war, Mr. Zelensky London, where he called for fighter jets before traveling to Paris to meet with Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz. This time, Britain was Mr. Zelensky’s last stop.

With its aggressive approach, Britain has often acted as a catalyst for more reluctant Western countries to supply Ukraine with heavier weapons. For example, the decision to send a squadron of Challenger 2 main battle tanks foreshadowed decisions by Germany and the United States to send more advanced tanks.

Britain also provided about $2.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2022, making it the country’s second largest financier after the United States and Germany.

European and Ukrainian officials said Mr Zelensky also privately pushed for a greater European role on the diplomatic scene. Ukraine is wary of countries with close ties to Russia, such as China and Brazil, drawing up peace plans or acting as mediators.

Mr Zelensky hopes to get allies like Germany more involved, said a Ukrainian official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case.

Mr Macron, who has sought to position himself as a key diplomatic player in future peace talks, last month urged China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, to use his close relationship with Moscow to help launch negotiations.

China later announced that it would send Li Hui, its special representative for Eurasian affairs, to Ukraine after a phone call between Mr. Xi and Mr. Zelensky. Mr. Li was due to begin his trip to Ukraine and Russia on Monday in an effort to help negotiate an end to the war.

Reporting contributed by Lara Jacks in Roma, Erica Solomon And Christopher F. Schuetze in Berlin, Peter Baker in Washington, Constant Meheut in Paris and Viviane Wang in Beijing.