On a report card on global warming, countries get a very poor grade

Despite the clear human and environmental toll of global warming, countries are taking only “baby steps” to rein in greenhouse gas emissions, a senior United Nations official said, summarizing a new UN report on the pledges that governments have done so far.

The UN findings, published Tuesday, are the latest in a number of assessments that paint a bleak picture of countries not doing nearly enough to keep global warming within relatively safe levels. “Today’s report shows that governments are taking baby steps together to avert the climate crisis,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate Change Agency. “And it shows why governments must take bold steps forward.”

Notably, a separate study from Saudi Arabia found that the country could face an “existential crisis” – threatening food and water supplies, along with the health of religious pilgrims during the Hajj – if global average temperatures increasing by 3 degrees Celsius, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to pre-industrial times. That’s roughly the level of warming expected if every country meets its climate goals.

Saudi Arabia is, of course, one of the largest oil producers in the world, and it is the burning of oil and other fossil fuels that is warming the planet by releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

“At this critical juncture,” the October report said, “Saudi Arabia faces a momentous choice: adapt and innovate in the face of climate adversity, or suffer the dire and potentially irrevocable consequences of inaction.” The A 133-page study was written by researchers from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

These kinds of findings are likely to be at the center of the debate later this month when tens of thousands of people, including world leaders, gather in Dubai for the UN’s annual global climate negotiations. The future of fossil fuels is the main focal point of these talks, especially since the negotiations are taking place in the oil-rich Middle East.

The talks will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates, an oil state. For the first time, an oil industry executive will chair the UN climate negotiations.

According to the United Nations report released Tuesday, global emissions would increase by 9 percent between now and 2030, compared to 2010 levels, if every country does what it has promised to curb global warming , and that’s a big if.

That’s slightly better than where things were last year.

But the scientific consensus says it’s the opposite of what should happen. Global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by almost half from 2010 levels by 2030 if the world is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2011, compared to the start of the industrial age – an ambitious threshold that seems increasingly unreachable.

“The world is failing to get a handle on the climate crisis,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday. The UN report, which focuses on diplomacy, does not indicate which countries are doing what, nor does it point the finger at laggards or obstructionists.

Currently, the average temperature on Earth is about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than it was 150 years ago, before the Industrial Revolution. If countries meet their current climate pledges, the average global temperature is expected to rise by up to 2.8 degrees.

By one metric, the world is on track to meet its short-term emissions reduction target, and that’s sales of electric passenger cars. This is according to another report, jointly published by several independent research groups.

That report also evaluated 41 other indicators, including moving away from fossil fuels in the electricity sector and making buildings more energy efficient. None of the others were on track to meet the target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For example, the share of wind and solar energy for electricity production is growing, but not fast enough.

And some indicators are moving in completely the wrong direction, the report warned. For example, government subsidies for fossil fuels grew last year, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the skyrocketing costs of oil and gas.

Among the winners of that price increase were the world’s oil giants, including American oil giants and Middle Eastern petrostates such as Saudi Arabia.