Behind a birthday message, Putin and Xi’s delicate duet
Best birthday wishes rarely come with so much meaning. But when it is Russia’s embattled president, Vladimir V. Putin, flattering his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, even seemingly small gestures send a message to the world, not least to their Western rivals.
Mr Putin sent Mr Xi a congratulatory telegram when the Chinese leader turned 70 on Thursday, wishing his “dear friend” good health, happiness and success, further cementing the image of a personal bond between the two authoritarian leaders.
“It is difficult to overstate the efforts you have made over many years to strengthen our comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction between our countries,” Mr Putin wrote.
The close bond between the two leaders and their nations has been fundamental to Russia’s economic survival since it invaded Ukraine nearly 16 months ago. But it risks becoming fraught in the long run as Russia becomes increasingly dependent on China, while China takes a more measured approach to Moscow and tries to win back some European support.
In Russia, China is welcomed as an economic partner that is an alternative to the West, despite fears from some that Moscow could become a vassal. China has supplied the isolated country with many products as Western companies have withdrawn from the market. It is Russia’s main energy customer, buying more of its oil than any other country and potentially becoming a larger consumer of its gas as sales to Europe have dried up. That continued energy revenue helped the Russian government fund the war.
In Beijing, Russia is seen as a vital partner against an increasingly united and hostile West. But Russia’s need for economic and political support — and its pleas for weapons for Ukraine’s battlefields — has also fueled fears that China is becoming overly attached to Putin’s war and thus increasingly exposed to diplomatic damage.
China, in particular, is more concerned about alienation from Europe, which is a much larger trading partner than Russia and a major player in the rivalry between Beijing and Washington. The Chinese government has also tried to ease escalating tensions with the United States by agreeing to hold two days of meetings with US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Beijing from Sunday.
“It’s an awkward dance,” Joseph Torigian, an assistant professor at American University in Washington who studies Chinese and Russian politics, said in an interview, referring to the partnership between Moscow and Beijing. “You don’t want the West to think they can split the partnership, but the partnership also has real economic and reputational costs for China.”
Mr Putin’s birthday wishes come as the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the annual Davos-esque event in his hometown, gave another demonstration of Russia’s increasing isolation due to its war on Ukraine.
The event had previously served as a showcase of the Russian market, mainly for major European and American companies. This year there were no Western top managers to be seen. The event featured panels on the “dedollarization” of world trade and the economic potential of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional grouping that includes Russia and China.
But China’s presence at the forum has also been moderate from recent years, part of what appears to be an effort by Beijing to avoid being seen as a willing supporter of Mr Putin’s war.
The Chinese ambassador to Russia and the leader of a Chinese trade group were among the most prominent Chinese guests. In 2019, Mr. Xi himself attended the forum, where he and Mr. Putin promoted their country as guardians of free world trade. A series of top Chinese executives and officials also attended that year.
Despite a 41 percent increase in trade between Russia and China in the first five months of this year, Chinese companies are hesitant to invest in Russia, largely because of the risk of punishment from Western governments, especially since the war in Ukraine.
“There may have even been a contraction of pre-war cooperation, because the US sanctions have to be taken into account,” said Xiao Bin, foreign policy researcher in Beijing, referring to Chinese investments.
In contrast, many Russian business leaders are quietly wary of China’s dominance.
“It was a nightmare for the Russian elites to make that dependent on China,” he said Tatyana Mitrovaa research fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
On the diplomatic front, Chinese officials have tried to improve China’s standing with Western European countries that have criticized the country for not using its influence over Russia to stop the war. Scholars in Chinese government institutions have become bolder in arguing that Beijing should show more clearly the limits of its partnership with Russia.
But especially Mr. Xi seems determined to kill Mr. To continue to treat Putin as a valued colleague, united by a shared belief that the United States and its allies want to drastically weaken Russia and hinder China’s rise to power. The two leaders reaffirmed their countries’ partnership at a summit in Moscow in March. And since Mr. Xi became China’s leader in 2012, they’ve used birthdays to indicate their closeness. ice creamAn embroidered portrait of Mr Putinand a RussianYotaPhone” for Mr. Xi.
Yu Bin, an expert on Sino-Russian relations and a senior fellow at East China Normal University in Shanghai, nevertheless cautioned against reading too much into bonhomie’s shows. “There’s a personal touch, but I wouldn’t overdo it,” he said. “First of all, the pursuit of a normal relationship between the two great countries is paramount.”
Despite the camaraderie between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, are there limits to the partnership they memorably said early last year was “borderless”.
Mr Putin wants Beijing to commit to a proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help reroute Russian gas flows that have historically gone to Europe to China, to show the world that the Kremlin retains major economic partners willing to fuel the Russian economy. .
Beijing has been relatively quiet on the project, possibly because signing on with public fanfare while the conflict in Ukraine is still raging would risk China appearing to be an enthusiastic economic financier of Russia’s war.
“China doesn’t want to portray itself as financing Putin’s war chest,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “If you want to convince everyone that you are a peacemaker, it is not a good thing to generate extra income for Putin’s war chest.”
“The relationship is definitely of mutual interest,” said Mr. Gabuev. “But there is also a built-in asymmetry. China is a bigger animal. It is robust production, scientific strength. Russia is primarily a one-dimensional economy. This is now a trendline on steroids.
In the longer term, there are concerns in Russia that Beijing could take advantage of Moscow’s weakened, derivative state to push for things like energy deals unfavorable to Moscow, or to expand Chinese influence in regions where they are rival powers . included in Central Asia and the Arctic.
Still, the Chinese leadership has so far proceeded with caution, trying to avoid the impression that it is taking advantage of Moscow in a moment of weakness.
“I would say that the Chinese are aware of Russian sensibilities, especially in the last 10 to 15 years, and don’t want, as we say in Chinese, to drop a stone on someone who is already at the bottom of the well .” Yu said.
Joy Dong reporting contributed.