Pronunciation could mean a sharp drop in black and Latino students

Nine states already ban the use of race-conscious college admissions at their public universities, and their experience could be a sign of the ruling’s ramifications.

After Michigan banned race-conscious admissions in 2006, black student enrollment at the University of Michigan, the state’s flagship school, plummeted. The share of black students fell from 7 percent in 2006 to 4 percent in 2021.

A similar decline occurred at the University of California’s most selective schools after a 1996 referendum, Proposition 209, banned race-conscious admissions. That year, black students at the University of California, Los Angeles, made up 7 percent of the student body. By 1998, the percentage of black students had fallen to 3.43 percent. It was up to 5 percent by 2022, but still well below what it had been more than a quarter of a century earlier.

At highly selective liberal arts colleges, officials expect black student numbers could return to levels not seen since the 1960s.

An amicus short filed by the highly selective liberal arts schools, including Amherst, Wesleyan and Williams, said that “the percentage of black students enrolling would fall from about 7.1 percent of the student body to 2.1 percent.”

Some studies suggest that these shifts, forcing students from highly competitive schools to less prestigious institutions, have long-term consequences for their income and job prospects, and fuel inequality.

But some scholars say gloomy forecasts of sharp declines are alarming and that schools will eventually revert to more racially diverse classes as they adapt to the new paradigm. They point to the University of California, which has increased reach in low-income communities. Over time, the number of Black and Hispanic students has increased in most schools in the system.

Richard Sander, a UCLA law professor who opposes race-based affirmative action, said graduation rates for black students improved after affirmative action was banned in California.

“The four-year graduation rate at UCLA and Berkeley was between 15 and 20 percent before Prop 209. It went right over the 70s for six years of graduation,” he said.