As fears mount, some Australians are seeking detente between the US and China
Growing up at the end of the Cold War in the United States, I remember a constant low hum of fear about possible war with Russia and possibly nuclear war.
Russians were the villains in our films. Mushroom clouds haunted our dreams.
Now for many of us, and perhaps for you too, a new version of those fears is emerging.
Security analysts and officials have told me that they believe the risk of a nuclear weapon being used somewhere — even if still small — has increased to levels not seen in decades. North Korea now claims to have developed nuclear warheads that it can mount on its various missiles. Russia's looming war in Ukraine continues. At the same time, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal, leading experts to suggest we may be entering a new era of mismanagement, like the one that marked the early rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, as giant powers with cataclysmic weapons lock horns to hold. and arouse for weakness.
As Chris Buckley, our chief China correspondent, wrote a recent articleChina's military strategists “now see nuclear weapons not only as a defensive shield, but also as a potential sword – to intimidate and subdue opponents.”
China aims to have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, up from a few hundred now, while the United States modernizes and strengthens its own nuclear capabilities.
Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are trying to figure out what to do about all this. Some officials in Seoul have floated the idea of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, an idea the United States opposes. Washington's allies have also pressed for information on nuclear protocols in the event of a standoff, something European allies already have through NATO.
Australia has largely doubled its bonds with the United States so far. The AUKUS Security Agreement between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom will bring US nuclear submarines to Western Australian ports, with new versions being built over the coming decades.
But there is also a renewed push from some former officials in Australia to try to bring Beijing and Washington together in an effort to build on common interests and de-escalate tensions.
Gareth Evans, who served as Australia's foreign minister from 1988 to 1996, and Bob Carr, former premier of New South Wales, recently collected dozens of signatures for an open letter calling on Australia to support the goal of détente, which they define as “a genuine balance of power between the United States and China designed to avert the horrors of great power conflict and achieve lasting peace for our people, our region and the world.” “
Neither China nor the United States have responded. Many of the signatories to the letter, including Evans and Carr, are prominent Labor Party figures seeking to influence the current Labor government in Australia, and perhaps return public opinion to a period when there was more acceptance of the turnout of China, which has made Australia very rich through trade.
The field may be out of sync at this point. In recent pollsMore than 80 percent of Australians surveyed said they did not trust China.
In an interview, Evans said he knew building support would take time. He said his goal was to “initiate a more substantive dialogue around this out of control situation.”
Like many others, he saw danger ahead. He said he feared the two major powers, with their nuclear-powered armies, could accidentally end up in war, through a mix of excessive nationalism and a narrow approach to competition around the world.
“What we need is a defusing and a need for balance,” Evans said. “There are too many fingers on too many triggers in an atmosphere of too much fear.”
Now for this week's stories.
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