Biden has openings for a comeback on two weaknesses

President Biden's approval ratings are as low as ever. A NBC Poll this weekend was just the latest example, showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by five percentage points nationwide, with his approval rating down 37 percent.

But in recent months, the conditions for a Biden comeback have gradually emerged. It hasn't shown up in the polls, at least not yet. But for the first time since the 2022 midterm elections, Mr. Biden has an undeniable political opening. If he cannot capitalize in the coming months, doubts about his political viability will increase.

The two big developments have occurred in what voters say are Mr. Biden's biggest weaknesses on this issue: the economy and the border.

First, the economy. Consumer confidence has increased over the past three months rose to the top level since July 2021. Lower inflation, continued growth and statements from the Fed have led to the realization that a soft landing is imminent. The stock market has also made huge gains, with the S&P 500 now up about 20 percent from the last wave of New York Times and Siena College state polls in late October.

It may be too early to expect the improving economic picture to help Mr. Biden in the polls. Even now, most voters still don't say the economy is good or excellent. They just believe it's not that bad and won't get worse. And in today's polarized era, presidents' popularity ratings tend to move very slowly—usually no more than a few percentage points per month, even when political conditions are favorable. But over time, these conditions are expected to boost Biden's ratings, at least among Democrats and independents.

Secondly, there is immigration. Even Mr. Trump and his former advisors increasingly recognize the country's growing economic strength, so the border appears poised to become Republicans' central message. It is a politically powerful argument. Voters increasingly view immigration as one of the biggest problems facing the country and overwhelmingly believe Mr. Trump could do a better job of addressing the issue. The issue is so challenging for Mr. Biden that it was difficult to imagine how he could defend himself.

Now his defense is clear. On Sunday, a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate announced an agreement on legislation to address the border and provide aid to Ukraine. The deal appears to be dead in the House of Representatives, not least because Trump is against it. As a result, it could be dead in the Senate as well.

Congressional politics typically don't play a role in presidential campaigns, but it's easy to see how this could be an exception. If Republicans reject a bipartisan border bill, Mr. Biden will have a plausible way to blame Republicans — and by extension, Mr. Trump — for the issue that is supposed to be best for Republicans. In the hands of a nimble campaign, Republicans could pay a political price for blocking the deal.

I don't want to compare everything about 2024 to 1948, but the analogy is getting better. In that election, President Truman campaigned against the Do Nothing Congress, which had failed to act to curb rising prices and alleviate a housing crisis. Truman's strategy was not powerful just because his proposed legislation was popular, which it was. It was also powerful because his Republican opponents said they also wanted action on the same issues.

At the Democratic Convention, Truman called their bluff by calling a special session of Congress. It left Republicans in the same situation they find themselves in now: choosing between letting the president take credit for congressional action or risk taking the blame for inaction. Republicans ultimately chose to pass bills on housing and prices, but Truman found those bills inadequate. The Republicans found themselves in a no-win situation, and perhaps Truman partially won a close election.

Could Mr. Biden use the Truman playbook and call a special session in a few months to pass the immigration bill? It seems worth watching because there appears to be room to hold Republicans accountable. There is also clearly room for Mr Biden to campaign on the improving economic picture. Combine this with Democrats' longstanding strengths on abortion rights and protecting democracy, and suddenly Biden's reelection playbook begins to come into focus.

Whether that playbook is enough to lift Mr. Biden to victory is another question. On paper it looks strong: incumbent presidents with a good economy usually win re-election. Of course, it's not always that simple: his Israel policy is an example of an issue that could cost him some support among young, left-wing voters who would normally be in his camp. Still, he can reasonably hope that these developments will help boost his ratings and his head-to-head polling against Mr. Trump in the coming months.

If Mr. Biden sees no gains, it will raise questions about whether age is actually the source of his weakness.

This weekend's NBC poll found that only 23 percent of voters said Mr. Biden was better than Mr. Trump in “having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” The economy may improve, but it's hard to imagine what he would do to dispel doubts about his physical health. And if concerns about his age are so great that Biden doesn't make any gains in the polls in the coming months, questions about his political viability will arise again.