Better economic sentiment does not translate into support for Biden

However, the economic atmosphere does not necessarily predict the election outcome, and this campaign differs in many ways from those of the past. “We’re in kind of an unprecedented situation where we’re weighing two incumbents against each other,” said Joanne Hsu, who is leading the Michigan study.

Anthony Rice, a 54-year-old Democrat from eastern Indiana, and almost everyone he knows are doing well right now, he said. Gasoline prices are down, there are plenty of jobs, and Mr. Rice, a union dump truck driver, is a direct beneficiary of the infrastructure bill that Mr. Biden signed into law in 2021. Yet few people in the deep red part of the country where he lives will recognize that, Mr. Rice said.

“There are more people working now, having better jobs and more opportunities to get better jobs than ever before,” he said. “I don’t understand why they don’t see how good it is.”

Amber Wichowsky, a political scientist at Marquette University who has studied voters’ economic perceptions, said it’s not surprising that many Americans may feel uneasy despite strong economic data. The pandemic and its aftermath have been deeply disruptive, she said, and it’s not surprising that it may take some time for things to feel normal again.

The question, Ms. Wichowsky said, is how much voters’ views will change once the campaign gets underway in earnest. So far, Biden has made little visible progress in selling his economic message, but many voters aren’t paying attention yet. In coming months, the Biden campaign will also ramp up sales efforts on the president’s economic record — including billions of dollars in spending on infrastructure and clean energy, which will become easier to communicate as projects get underway.