For Democrats longing for an alternative, the Biden team has a message: Get over it

When it comes down to it, many Democrats wish President Biden wasn’t a candidate this fall. Only 28 percent of Democrats expressed enthusiasm for his candidacy in a new survey from The New York Times and Siena College, and 38 percent said outright that Biden should not be their nominee.

But even as many Democrats, both in Washington and across the country, quietly long for someone else to take on former President Donald J. Trump, who is leading nationally in the polls by 5 percentage points, no one matters. seems willing to tell Mr. Trump that. Biden himself. And if he is, it seems like he’s not listening.

Surrounded by a loyal and committed inner circle, Mr. Biden has given no indication that he would consider stepping aside to let someone else lead the party. In fact, he and the people close to him are baffled by the idea. Despite all the hand-wringing, the president’s advisers note, no serious challenge has emerged and Mr. Biden has dominated the early Democratic primaries even more decisively than Mr. Trump has won his own party’s nominating contests.

The Biden team itself views the question as absurd. According to them, the president has an impressive record. There is no clear alternative. It is far too late in the cycle to get out without significant disruption. If he had ever opted against a second term, it would have been a year ago when there would have been time for a successor. And aside from someone with Biden in his name, it’s hard to imagine who would have enough clout to even broach the idea to him, let alone influence him.

“There is no council of elders and I’m not sure there was a sitting president, no matter who it was, who would listen to them,” said David Plouffe, the architect of President Barack Obama’s campaigns and one of the strategists who helped him choose Biden as his vice presidential running mate in 2008. “He thinks, ‘Hey, I won and I beat the guy who’s going to run against me and I can do it again.’”

Members of Mr. Biden’s team insist they have few concerns. The president’s closest aides are pushing back in exasperation against those who question his decision to run again and dismiss the election polls so far as meaningless. They argue that doubters consistently underestimate Mr. Biden and that Democrats won or exceeded expectations in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and even a special House election this year.

“Actual voter behavior tells us far more than any poll and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and the Democrats continue to outperform, while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped and deeply divided.” , says Michael Tyler. , the Biden campaign’s communications director said Saturday. “Our campaign is ignoring the noise and running a strong campaign to win – just like we did in 2020.”

Outside the White House, however, many Democrats wish the unpanicked White House would show some urgency. Mr. Biden’s weakness in the polls, especially those showing him trailing in all six swing states needed to muster a majority in the Electoral College have caused widespread unrest within the party. Some say privately that Georgia and Arizona may be out of reach, leaving Mr. Biden to search Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The dissatisfaction is not necessarily a judgment on the merits of Mr. Biden’s presidency. Many Democrats say he has done a good job on many fronts: winding down the pandemic, rebuilding the economy, managing wars in Europe and the Middle East and passing groundbreaking legislation on infrastructure, climate change , health care, industrial policy, veterans care and other issues.

But his support is being undermined by concerns about his age, his support for Israel’s war against Hamas, the record influx of migrants at the southwest border and the lingering impact of inflation, even as it has fallen again. More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats, or 13 percent of the total, just cast “uncommitted” protest votes to express their dissatisfaction, particularly over Gaza.

Mr Biden, 81, is just slightly older than Mr Trump, 77, and both have shown moments of confusion and memory loss. After his annual medical exam last week, Mr. Biden’s doctor declared him “fit for duty.” But polls show that a larger share of the public is uneasy about Mr. Biden’s advancing years than Mr. Trump’s.

“Would I prefer if Joe Biden were 65? Certainly, that would be great,” said Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Democratic National Committee. ‘But he isn’t. And that’s why I think we’re in a silly season where everyone is looking for an alternative scenario.”

The alternative scenarios remain far-fetched. The long-term challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, has failed to gain traction, and with Super Tuesday just around the corner this week, it’s almost certainly too late for a heavierweight candidate to enter the contest, even if anyone were willing to take on the president. , which no one seems willing to do.

Many conversations around the Washington dinner table these days are about what would happen if Mr. Biden had a last-minute change of heart, as President Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1968, or if he experienced a health situation that prompted him to quit . If that were to happen before the Democratic National Convention in August, it would set the stage for the first open competition at a convention in decades. After the convention, any vacancy at the top of the ticket would be filled by the Democratic National Committee.

However, all the talk is just that. Mr. Biden is helped by the fact that none of the next generation of Democrats waiting in the wings, like Vice President Kamala Harris or Governors Gavin Newsom of California or Gretchen Whitmore of Michigan, has a proven national following or track record of area of ​​success. primaries.

“You could name five or six alternatives to Biden, but they haven’t gone through the system yet,” said Ms. Kamarck, one of the country’s leading experts on the nomination process, who just released the fourth edition of her quadrennial guide has published, “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.”

“We don’t know enough about them to give them a nomination,” she continued. “It’s crazy. The whole thing is so nutty. There’s no alternative.”

Ms. Kamarck said Democrats have increasingly come to accept that. “Democrats are becoming increasingly vocal in their defense of Biden,” she said. “That man is a good guy. He’s not senile. He has made good choices. The economy is the best economy in the world. I mean, shut up. Let’s stand behind this man.”

The idea that anyone outside his family could persuade Mr. Biden to step aside has always been a fantasy. Few Democrats have the kind of seriousness that could do anything for Mr. Biden. He still finds it painful that Obama gently persuaded him not to run in 2016, thus giving a reprieve to Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in the fall. Mr. Biden is old enough to no longer have mentors and few colleagues from his time in the Senate. And Jill Biden and other family members strongly support this latest run.

“There were only two people who could prevent Joe Biden from being nominated: Joe Biden if he decides not to run, or someone who is serious and wants to challenge him,” Mr. Plouffe said. And no matter how attractive a younger Democrat may seem in theory, he added, nothing is certain until someone actually runs and wins. “The political graveyard is full of people who look good on paper,” he said.

Mr Plouffe agrees that “concerns about his age are greater than people thought a year ago”. “The only thing you can do is normalize it and ultimately fight Trump.” He said he was glad Mr. Biden was getting out more, appearing on late-night television and using Tik Tok. The more voters see him, Mr. Plouffe reasoned, the less any particular misunderstanding could matter.

A key moment for the president to stand up for himself comes Thursday evening, when he delivers his State of the Union address to what historically should be his largest television audience of the year. He will talk about his track record and what he wants to do in the next four years. But just as important as any policy statement will be the way it presents itself.

The president’s advisers express confidence that when the moment of decision comes, most voters will again favor Mr. Biden, whatever his faults, over Mr. Trump, a twice-impeached, defeated former president who faces 91 crimes and who has been found civilly liable. trials for massive corporate fraud and sexual assault, and talk about being a “dictator” for a day.

“Where most Democrats are,” Mr. Plouffe said, “is, ‘OK, this is going to be very difficult, a high level of difficulty, but at the end of the day there is probably enough of the country that doesn’t want to sign up for a second Trump term that we can make this work. ”