Canada’s biggest proponents of fossil fuels are making their case at the climate conference

Science

The idea that fossil fuels have a long-term future in the global economy is anathema to the many environmentalists attending the UN climate summit hosted by the United Arab Emirates. But for two Canadian prime ministers who are also in attendance, the idea is gospel, and the conference is an ideal place to recruit converts.

Danielle Smith, the Premier of Alberta, and Scott Moe, her counterpart in Saskatchewan, are participating in the meetings with the aim of promoting the continued development of oil and gas. And they were joined by a large contingent of oil and gas industry representatives from Canada. According to Environmental Defense, based in Toronto, an estimated 35 people involved in the fossil fuel industry were part of the Canadian delegation, including Alberta.

The participation of fossil fuel advocates in the climate summit and its location in the United Arab Emirates – a country whose economy is almost entirely based on the sale of fossil fuels – has cast doubt on the credibility of the negotiations, my colleague reported Vivian Nereim.

A leaked internal document also revealed that the Emirates had another goal for the meeting: to promote oil and gas deals around the world.

[Read: Files Suggest Climate Summit’s Leader Is Using Event to Promote Fossil Fuels]

Then a video emerged of Sultan Al Jaber, the Emirati oil executive leading the conference, saying there was “no science” to support the idea that fossil fuels need to be phased out to prevent global average temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. levels – the point above which scientists say the effects of global warming will become overwhelming.

[Read: Climate Summit Leader Tries to Calm Uproar Over a Remark on Fossil Fuels]

Mr Al Jaber was defiant, suggesting at a press conference that he had not said what the video captured.

It is still too early to tell whether the deal that scientists, environmentalists and dozens of world leaders are calling for — one that would lead to a rapid reduction in oil production — will actually happen.

[Read: It’s Big Oil vs. Science at the U.N. Climate Summit]

The conference, which is being held at the end of the hottest year on record, does not end until Tuesday.

But those calling for the inclusion of unambiguous language in the final text on a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels may be disappointed. Under UN rules, any of the 170 countries at the meeting can nullify any agreement. The Gulf states, among others, have said they will not accept any call to end the industry that has brought them excessive wealth.

Back in Ottawa on Thursday, the federal government unveiled a key part of its climate plan for the oil and gas industry, the country’s climate plan. largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. The announcement made Canada the first major oil and gas producer to cap emissions in this segment.

below the government planthe energy sector will get a break from the requirement to reduce emissions relative to other industries. Canada’s overall climate target calls for reductions, by 2030, of 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels. However, the oil and gas industry will need to end up only 35 to 38 percent below 2019 levels by the same deadline. Companies that do not achieve these reductions will be able to purchase offsets from industries that have reduced production.

While most environmentalists have praised the cap, many want the final version of the regulations to include more reductions, and not all agree that companies can buy their way out of the reductions.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, an industry lobby group, said the emissions cap was “effectively a production cap,” something Ms. Smith and Mr. Moe have long promised to block. The federal government estimates that oil and gas companies can increase production by 12 percent and still meet emissions targets.

Ms. Smith and Mr. Moe, heartened by recent court setbacks over some federal environmental laws, said in statements they would fight the system in the courts as an unconstitutional intrusion on provincial jurisdiction.

“Justin Trudeau and his eco-extremist Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, are risking hundreds of billions in investments in the Alberta and Canadian economies,” Ms. Smith said. (Ms. Smith’s United Conservative Party has not fulfilled its promise to abolish a provincial law introduced by the previous New Democratic Party government. limits oil sands emissions.)

Perhaps time is a bigger potential threat to the cap. Mr. Trudeau first promised the cap during the election process two years ago. It will not come into force until 2026 at the earliest. That would be after the next federal vote, which may not be favorable to his Liberal party.

If the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre take power after those elections, few doubt that Mr Poilievre will abolish the energy industry’s emissions cap. And indeed, not long after the government’s announcement, Mr. Poilievre provoked a series of votes that lasted all night. He pledged to keep the House of Commons tied to them through Christmas unless Mr. Trudeau scrapped some carbon taxes.

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Ian Austen, born in Windsor, Ontario, educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has been writing about Canada for The New York Times for 20 years.

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