Nations aim to zero emissions from shipping by the middle of the century
Negotiators from nearly every country reached a preliminary agreement on Thursday to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from shipping as close as possible by 2050.
The breakthrough came about at an annual meeting in London of the International Maritime Organization, the global shipping regulator. The agreement, which will be formally signed on Friday, also includes targets for emissions reductions to be achieved by 2030 and 2040.
According to delegates present at the talks, which were inaccessible to reporters, the agreement’s ambitions were tempered by representatives of countries with major economic interests in oil production and maritime trade.
But strong last-minute pressure from small island nations and other poorer coastal nations led to commitments from the organization consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. That’s the threshold most climate scientists say the world needs to avoid to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
“We fought tooth and nail for these numbers,” said Carlos Fuller, Belize’s representative to the United Nations, who also negotiated on behalf of the small Caribbean nation in London. “They are not perfect, but they give us a chance to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius. And that is why we came here.”
Shipping is responsible for about 3 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Ships carrying fuel, ore, grain, and containers full of consumer goods typically use heavy fuel oil, which has higher emissions than most other fossil fuels.
As the world’s population continues to grow and countries develop more robust trade, the global shipping industry will also grow. Currently, about 90 percent of international trade is done on ships.
Moving away from that fuel will require governments, as well as oil and gas companies, to invest in zero-emission alternatives. That can be green hydrogen or its derivative, green ammonia. Such fuels are produced using renewable electricity such as wind and solar power to power processes that convert water into fuel.
That transition is not as simple as subsidizing more hydrogen production. New ships, new tankers, new pipelines and even new port infrastructure will be needed to facilitate their use.
Shipmakers have already started to deliver ships that can run on liquefied natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel, but nevertheless cleaner than heavy fuel oil. While those new ships outsold oil-dependent ships for the first time last year, ships generally remain in service for at least 25 years, meaning the vast majority of the world’s roughly 60,000 freighters are heavy polluters.
The IMO agreement is not binding and is intended more as a signal to governments where to benchmark their own targets. It stipulates that by 2030, governments must require shipping companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by “at least 20 percent” compared to 2008 levels. By 2040, that will rise to “at least 70 percent.”
A so-called net-zero target, at which point industry would have largely eliminated its emissions and offset the remaining amount, should be reached “by or around, i.e. close to, 2050.”
Pacific island nations in particular had been fighting for a more definitive 2050 target. While many of them rely heavily on shipping for tax revenue, they have also suffered disproportionately from the effects of climate change-induced sea level rise and supercharged cyclones. Negotiators describe their strategy as ‘high risk, high reward’.
“This important step would not have been possible without the staunch leadership of the Pacific,” said Albon Ishoda, the Marshall Islands negotiator in the talks, “as well as the deep solidarity of countries around the world in acknowledging our vulnerability and hearing to give in to our call.”