China has failed to influence the elections in Taiwan. What happens now?

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has tied his country's great power status to a singular promise: uniting the motherland with Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party views as sacred, lost territory. A few weeks ago, Mr. Xi called this a “historical inevitability.”

But Taiwan's election on Saturday, which handed the presidency to a party promoting the island's separate identity for the third time in a row, confirmed that this troubled democracy has moved even further away from China and its dream of unification.

After a campaign of festival-like rallies, during which huge crowds shouted, danced and waved matching flags, Taiwanese voters ignored China's warnings that a vote for the Democratic Progressive Party was a vote for war. They made that choice anyway.

Lai Ching-te, a former doctor and current vice president who Beijing sees as a staunch separatist, will become Taiwan's next leader. It's an act of self-governance that proved what many already knew: Beijing's upending of Taiwan — economically and with military intimidation at sea and in the air — has undermined the island's desire to protect its de facto independence and go beyond China's desire only strengthens. giant shadow.

“The tougher approach hasn't worked,” said Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, and author of “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.” “That is the reality of Taiwanese politics.”

This evolution, cultural and political, entails risks. Mr Lai's victory forces Mr Xi to confront a lack of progress. And while China's full response will unfold over months or years, the dynamics of mismanagement and stress show no signs of abating and are likely to intensify.

China and the United States have made Taiwan a test for competing sensibilities and visions. For Beijing, the island is a remnant of the civil war in which the United States does not want to interfere. For Washington, it is the first line of defense for global stability, a democracy of 23 million people and the microprocessor factory for the world.

The monumental stakes add gravitas to any word or policy that Mr. Lai or his party might utter now and after his inauguration in May. With Taiwan's sense of self and China's expectations in conflict, Xi is not expected to stand idly by.

Before the election, Chinese officials in editorials and official comments portrayed Mr. Lai as a villain. call him a stubborn “Taiwan independence worker,” a “destroyer of cross-strait peace,” and possibly the “creator of a dangerous war.”

During the campaign, Lai, 64, a veteran politician respected by supporters for his quiet determination, said Taiwan did not need formal independence. At a news conference after his victory, he said he would seek a balanced approach to relations between the two countries, including “cooperation with China,” following the example of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.

But the likelihood that China will change its mind is slim.

“Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments will occur during his term,” said Zhu Songling, professor of Taiwanese studies at Beijing Union University.

“I'm afraid it is very dangerous,” he added, noting that Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. This includes his emphasis on the use of force when necessary.

Western scholars of Chinese politics are not much more optimistic.

“The next four years will be anything but stable in US-China relations,” said Evan S. Medeiros, professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University.

Like other analysts, he said he expected a familiar set of printing techniques.

At the very least, China will continue to try to manipulate Taiwanese politics with disinformation, threats and economic incentives. Chinese officials have also hinted they could target trade, eliminating more tariff concessions.

Extensive military exercises are another possibility. Chinese fighter jets, drones and ships are already invading Taiwan almost every day.

Beijing has also shown that it will continue to push Washington to pressure Taiwan and reduce military support. Red flags are becoming a common feature of US-China diplomacy.

In Washington, on the eve of the Taiwan elections, Liu Jianchao, head of the Chinese Communist Party's international department, agreed with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. The United States said Mr. Blinken “reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Based on other official statements, Mr. Liu most likely warned the United States against intervening “in the Taiwan region” — a complaint sparked by an announcement that a delegation of former officials would head to Taipei after the election. Such visits have been common for decades. The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned “the American side's brazen chatter.”

However, there are no plans in Washington to remain silent or limit cooperation. Quite the opposite. Last year, the Biden administration announced $345 million in military aid to Taiwan, with weapons from U.S. stockpiles. Bills in Congress would also strengthen economic ties with Taiwan, relax tax policies and provide a foundation for these policies economic sanctions against China if it attacks.

After working with the Americans as vice president, Mr. Lai can move more quickly, analysts say, and possibly in more sensitive areas.

The United States could intensify cybersecurity cooperation and strengthen communications networks to a point that blurs the lines on (or prepares for) intelligence sharing. It could try to deploy military logistics equipment on the island – a strategy the Pentagon is introducing across the region.

It is also an open secret that American military advisors, many of them retired officers, have an increasing presence in Taiwan. Some Taiwanese officials call them “English teachers.” Under Mr Lai, many more could be on the way.

“Beijing has turned a blind eye, so the question is: what size of that presence will cross the Rubicon?” said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University's Taiwan Studies Program. He added: “Hopefully any additional step will not be seen as overtly provocative to provoke or justify a massive Chinese response.”

War is of course not inevitable. That may be less likely now, with China preoccupied with a bleak economy and the United States with wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Some analysts also hope that Mr Xi will find a way to claim election victory and distance himself from antagonism. With a third-party candidate, Ko Wen-je, winning 26 percent of the vote with a vague focus on a middle ground in relations with China, Mr. Lai won with just 40 percent.

“It is in China's national interest to expand the path of peaceful integration so that they do not have to fight,” Professor Shirk said. “A lot of people are watching this interaction and Beijing's response – all the investors are watching it too.”

In Taiwan, however, Mr. Xi can do little to improve China's image. In recent studiesless than 10 percent of Taiwanese respondents viewed China as trustworthy.

“We have seen too many examples of what Xi has done to Hong Kong and how he has treated his people,” said Cheng Ting-bin, 56, a teacher in Taipei who voted for Mr Lai.

Most Taiwanese see their future elsewhere. On Saturday, many said they hoped the government could use the powerful semiconductor industry to build links with Southeast Asia and Europe.

During the campaign, any identification with China seemed to have been erased. Although Taiwan's official name is Republic of China, a remnant of the days when Chinese nationalists fled there, ROC references were difficult to find. At Mr. Lai's rallies, supporters wore glittering green jackets with “Team Taiwan” written in English on the back.

Even the Nationalist Party, known for favoring closer ties with Beijing, emphasized deterrence, the status quo and Taiwanese identity. The candidate, Hou Yu-ih, spoke with such a strong Taiwanese accent that Mandarin speakers unfamiliar with local inflections had difficulty understanding him.

In many ways, the election was less of a referendum on Chinese policy than usual. Cost-of-living issues became more dominant in part because the candidates' platforms on foreign affairs all aligned with what most people said they wanted: a stronger military, closer ties to the democratic world, and a commitment to the status quo that avoids provocation . Beijing, but is also trying to tiptoe out of its orbit.

“What we want is just to preserve our way of life,” said Alen Hsu, 65, a retiree who said his father came from China and his son served in Taiwan's air force.

“China,” he added, “simply cannot be trusted.”

John Liu contributed reporting from Taipei, Claire Fu from Seoul, and Amy Chang Chien from Chiayi, Taiwan.