Why China and Australia Are Reconciling Sort of.

Since 2017, Australia has been playing David to the Chinese Goliath: dismissive Chinese push to adopt Huawei technology, calling out Chinese political interferenceand demands an investigation into the origins of Covid-19, just like Beijing blocked Australian imports ranging from coal to wine.

As Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese lands in Beijing on Saturday for a three-day visit and meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, reconciliation is progressing – but with limits.

Mr Albanese’s trip marks a small step back towards economic and diplomatic stability after a long march of distrust. China’s coercive tariffs are disappearing. Australian rhetoric has softened. Yet safety concerns remain.

“There will always be a nervous look back at this part of the history of the relationship,” said James Curran, a historian at the University of Sydney, referring to the tariffs and years of frozen relations. “It will not be easily erased because what came with it was a whole set of assumptions and fears.”

If Australia was and will be a bellwether for relations with China, as many Western powers believe, regular trade and dialogue – rather than the enthusiasm for future opportunities that defined the early years of China’s economic rise – may be the best it can be are. Both sides have been cautious in the run-up to this weekend’s visit, avoiding terms like “reset” in favor of “stabilization” and pointing to relatively minor concessions that have brought them back into diplomacy after years of escalating rancor.

For Australia, the turnaround began with a new government. Mr Albanese was elected in May 2022 and within weeks the defense ministers of the two countries met on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore. Soon, Xiao Qian, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, set a recalibrated tone for improving relations.

“China views Australia as a friend, as a partner,” he said, “and we see, and I don’t see any reason why Australia should view China as an enemy or as an adversary.”

In December, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. They agreed to resume dialogue on issues such as trade, climate change and defense – an area made even more tense by China’s strong opposition to AUKUS, the Security deal for 2021 between Australia, the United States and England involving nuclear submarines.

Ms Wong also raised the cases of a detained Australian journalist, Cheng Lei, and the writer Yang Hengjun.

Asked whether relations were improving after a period when Beijing blocked phone calls between Australian ministers and their Chinese counterparts, Ms Wong said: “The ice is thawing, but slowly.”

And that is true. Australia has withdrawn complaints to the World Trade Organization as China has gradually agreed to review or lift tariffs and trade bans costing several Australian industries billions of dollars. This means that the products are included on the way back to China coal, barley And wood. Wine and lobster exports could resume in a few months.

While Mr Yang remains in questionable custody, Cheng Lei was released by Chinese authorities returned to Australia last month.

Australia, for its part, recently announced that – after a lengthy safety review – it will not terminate a Chinese company’s 99-year lease for the northern port of Darwin.

Mr Albanese said Chinese management of the port, not far from where US troops pass through the country every year, did not pose a security risk, and the decision would ensure “Australia remains a competitive destination for foreign investment.”

China welcomed the decision as a sign that the economy was once again becoming a more dominant element of bilateral ties.

“On the one hand, Australian Prime Minister Albanese, after coming to power, recognized the importance of the Chinese market and sought reconciliation with China,” said Peng Qinglong, director of the Center for Australian Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University . “On the other hand, the current global economic situation is not optimistic, and this background has prompted the two sides to engage in communication and dialogue.”

But for China, many analysts argue, the incentive to welcome Australia back into its ranks goes beyond just business. Since 2018, when Mr. Xi term limits eliminated and made himself a leader for life, his approach has riled many countries at home and abroad that, like Australia, consider China one of their most important trading partners.

The Philippines, after flirting with closer ties with Beijing, has done just that leaned more towards the United States partly because of China’s extensive claims and aggressive push into the disputed waters of the South China Sea. India, na clashes at the border with China in 2020has also expanded defense ties with Washington, with Beijing seen as a bigger threat.

“China’s power projection in the region is raising eyebrows and challenging its own image as a responsible power,” said Courtney J. Fung, an academic at Asia Society Australia. She added: “Working to build a more positive relationship with Australia can help China rebuild its image in the region.”

How much of that reputation can be restored remains an open question. Chinese officials have made it clear that they are still dissatisfied with AUKUS and other groups, like the Quadwhich they see as an American-led attempt to encircle and threaten China.

Opinion polls in Australia also show deep skepticism about the Chinese government’s intentions: a recent survey found that 75 percent of Australians see China a military threat to Australia over the next twenty years.

Even among those who stand to benefit from the stabilization of relations, the impact of recent years seems destined to limit exuberance.

Nikki Palun, an Australian winery, shipped more than two million bottles of wine to China annually, accounting for 90 percent of its sales. But the impact of China’s tariffs has been drastic and will continue.

“I’ve been forced to diversify, and I really like the direction the company is going,” she said. “I will of course go back to China, but that may only represent 20 or 30 percent of my turnover.”

Washington’s assessment of China’s outreach efforts also remains bleak. Amid talk of Mr. Xi meeting President Biden on the sidelines of a regional economic summit in San Francisco this month, many U.S. officials have lowered their expectations as Mr. Xi and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia have done. strengthens their partnership about the war in Ukraine.

In speeches at home, Mr Xi has repeatedly emphasized the economy and prioritized national security, warning that China faces “dangerous storms‘forward all over the world.

“China is not changing direction or opening up quickly, whether politically, economically or militarily,” he said Oriana Skylar Mastroa fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Mr Albanese’s trip to China, which coincides with the 50th anniversary of the first visit by an Australian Prime Minister, comes on the heels of a state visit to the United States.

In Washington, Mr Biden warned Australia to be careful not to invest too heavily in Chinese promises.

“Trust but verify” is the expression,” he said.

Given recent history, Mr. Albanese is likely to heed that advice.

Siyi Zhao reporting contributed.