How DeSantis’ ambitious, costly ground game has sputtered

Ron DeSantis’ battle plan against Donald J. Trump was always ambitious.

This spring, the main super PAC backing Mr. DeSantis mounted a costly organizing operation, including a massive voter campaign with an army of trained, paid door knockers who would try to reach every potential DeSantis voter multiple times early on. naming states.

Seven months later, after spending tens of millions of dollars and knocking on hundreds of thousands of doors, one of the most expensive ground games in modern political history shows little sign of creating the momentum it had hoped for.

Mr. DeSantis’ poll numbers have barely made any progress. His super PAC, Never Back Down, is falling apart. And Trump’s grip on the Republican primaries appears as unshakable as ever. With time running out before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, Mr. DeSantis, the Florida governor, appears to be in danger of losing the extraordinary bet he made by outsourcing his field operation to a super PAC — a gamble which tests both boundaries. of campaign finance law and the power of money to influence voter sentiment.

Never Back Down has spent at least $30 million on its efforts to personally reach voters by knocking on doors and canvassing in early primary states, according to a person with knowledge of its efforts — a figure that includes the additional tens of millions in the US are not included. TV commercial. The organization has more than 100 full-time, paid canvassers in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, along with 37,000 volunteers.

That ground game increasingly focused on a do-or-die push at Iowa, where a long-shot win could redeem the effort. Never Back Down has made more than 801,000 doors in Iowa — including repeat visits — according to another person familiar with its work, a staggering number in a state of just 3.2 million people. The group has knocked on the doors of some potential DeSantis voters four times, with a fifth attempt planned before the caucuses, the person said.

“I know they’re doing the right things,” said Will Rogers, a Republican political organizer in Iowa who said Never Back Down had knocked on his door several times. But, he added, “it doesn’t seem like the needle is moving at all.”

Interviews with more than three dozen voters, local officials and political strategists in Iowa and beyond revealed that — beyond the internal disruptions at Never Back Down — the immense, coordinated effort to identify and mobilize voters for Mr. DeSantis from the start has had difficulty. .

Some voters have been swayed by the super PAC’s outreach, but many remain unconvinced. Some said the door knockers were indifferent or rude, while others said the press from Never Back Down felt inauthentic. And in a particularly brutal twist, some door knockers openly told Iowans that they themselves were in fact Trump supporters.

“From my standpoint, it hasn’t worked,” said Cris Christenson, a businessman who lives in the Des Moines suburb of Johnston. Never Back Down has been all over his neighborhood, he said, knocking on his door three times.

Mr. Christenson said he was “not anti-DeSantis” and described him as “very smart.” But he is a strong supporter of Mr. Trump.

“It really comes down to this: Trump is so wildly popular in the state that DeSantis doesn’t stand a chance,” he said.

Spread the word

Jess Szymanski, a spokeswoman for Never Back Down, said the group had built “the largest, most sophisticated grassroots and political operation in the history of presidential politics.”

“With every voter we contact on the ground, we are consistently finding strong support and new voters committed to caucusing for Governor DeSantis,” she added. Door knocking is considered a particularly useful way not only to persuade and identify supporters, but especially to mobilize them to go to the caucuses or polling stations.

The field operation is highly organized: Never Back Down has trained hundreds of people in an internal boot camp in Des Moines that agents call “Fort Benning.” There, recruits learn about the biography of Mr. DeSantis and his family, study his policies and reputation as governor of Florida, and practice door-knocking techniques.

They then spread out in groups — using iPads with special software that contained details about likely voters — across Iowa and other early nominated states.

In Iowa, these paid door knockers are accompanied by volunteer “district captains.” Never Back Down aims to have at least one captain in each of Iowa’s more than 1,600 caucus districts by January 15.

Never Back Down is trying to reach Republicans in rural, heavily conservative areas like northwestern Iowa, hoping that evangelical voters will embrace an alternative to the profane Trump.

Quality control issues

Some of the challenges on the ground appear to stem from the scale of the operation. The fact that the organization was run by a super PAC rather than a campaign, and relied largely on hired hands rather than volunteers, can make the outreach seem inauthentic, according to interviews with some caucusgoers.

They described being put off or baffled by DeSantis campaigners who came from as far away as California. Douglas Jensen, a 38-year-old potential caucus-goer in rural northwest Iowa who has not yet decided which candidate to support, recalled being surprised when a “very enthusiastic” man from Georgia met with Mr. DeSantis at his home .

Loren and Tina DeVries said door knockers from various campaigns had stopped by their Bettendorf home. Some were locals — Ms. DeVries, 54, even knew the young woman who came to her door to personally steam for Vivek Ramaswamy.

But the couple didn’t recognize DeSantis’ door knockers and recalled that they had been less than enthusiastic in their pitch.

“The people who have come, I’m not sure if they’re just there to check a box or to have a persuasive conversation,” said Mr. DeVries, 53. “They don’t really sell.”

He still loved Mr. DeSantis, but Mrs. DeVries remained indecisive.

Numerous other voters have also reported poor efforts, fruitless repeated knocking and poor attitudes from door knockers. Over the summer, a paid Never Back Down researcher in South Carolina was fired after he was caught making lewd comments about a homeowner, The Washington Post reported.

The super PAC has fired employees and volunteers who failed to meet targets for door-knocking and other engagement measures, according to people who worked with the group.

Fierce competition and a looming favorite

Other campaigns are trying to capitalize. The political network founded by the Koch brothers, Americans for Prosperity Action, which endorsed Nikki Haley last month, aims to knock on 100,000 doors before the Iowa caucuses. The group hopes that a more refined message, spread by the small group of well-trained volunteers and paid staff, will be enough to overcome Never Back Down’s outpouring of aid.

Tyler Raygor, AFP state director, said the fact that Mr. DeSantis was stagnant in the state polls despite tremendous efforts raised doubts about the effectiveness of his messengers.

“It just begs the question, ‘Who do you have outside? How well do you train them?” Mr Raygor said.

The Trump campaign has also taken root in Iowa, though its efforts have focused more on training the 1,800 caucus captains and pushing them to convince their friends and neighbors to vote for Trump. Still, the campaign has reached several hundred thousand voters in Iowa through mail-in ads and door-knocking, according to a person familiar with the effort.

Indeed, it seems possible that no amount of door knocking can overcome Mr. DeSantis’s greatest challenge: He is not Donald Trump.

Jeanette Hudson, 82, of Pella, Iowa, said she and her husband, both loyal Trump supporters, were visited at home by a “pleasant young woman” who asked if they were going to perform for Mr. DeSantis. Ms Hudson said this was not the case.

The woman smiled, thanked them and left.

Convincing those who are not convinced

David Polyansky, DeSantis’ deputy campaign manager, said the door knocking was intended to increase turnout on caucus night, not undermine the polls.

“It gives you an opportunity to not only identify who might be a DeSantis supporter, but also to bring them into the fold and make sure they will show up on the 15th,” he said, arguing that it it was too early to judge. the effectiveness of Never Back Down’s door knocking operation.

In New Hampshire, the way Mr. DeSantis won the support of Hilary Kilcullen, 76, a physician assistant in Concord, is a model that Never Back Down hopes to emulate.

Ms. Kilcullen, a Republican, said a young man knocked on her door to tell her about Mr. DeSantis. The investigator, who flew in from Miami, told Ms. Kilcullen that she could rely on Mr. DeSantis in the event of a terrorist attack or other disaster.

The conversation did not turn Ms. Kilcullen, who had grown tired of Mr. Trump, into a DeSantis supporter. But she appreciated the personal contact.

“In this day and age when everything has become digital and virtual, I was impressed,” Ms Kilcullen said. “If DeSantis could get the attention of this passionate young man, it means something.”

After hearing Mr. DeSantis speak in person at a town hall event this month — and being impressed by his command of policy — she decided he had earned her vote.

But others still need to be convinced.

An undecided caucusgoer in Iowa, Edith Hull, a 73-year-old retired farmer from Ottumwa, said she recently had a positive experience with a DeSantis door knocker.

“He was a very nice young man,” she said. “And he didn’t pressure me or anything.” As he left, he gave her a large sign to hang on her doorknob and reminded her that she had a meeting.

Asked if she felt differently about Mr. DeSantis afterward, she said, “About the same.”

Reporting was contributed by Ann Hinga Klein of Des Moines and West Des Moines, Iowa, Cindy Hadish of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Leah McBride Mensching of Mason City, Iowa.