Why it’s way too early to say DeSantis is done

Is the Ron DeSantis campaign over yet?

After the past few months, it’s hard not to wonder. His polls have plummeted. Potential donors seem skeptical. Experts to have interrogated whether he should run at all.

But with him finally announcing a presidential bid, expected later today, it’s worth considering his way back to the fray. Despite everything, Ron DeSantis could still be the next Republican nominee.

That may seem hard to imagine, but fortunes can turn amazingly fast in presidential primaries. There are more than six months left until the Iowa caucuses, and there will be plenty of opportunities for him to right his ship.

In the end, the factors that made Mr. DeSantis formidable at the start of the year may prove more important than the stumbles and missteps that have hindered him lately. The damage is not yet irreparable.

Of course, just because he could make a comeback doesn’t mean he will. His campaign’s decision to announce its bid tonight on Twitter forfeits a rare opportunity to be broadcast live across multiple networks in favor of a feature, Twitter Spaces, which, as a frequent Twitter user, I don’t even know how to use. And even if his campaign ultimately turns out differently than it has, it’s not clear that even a perfectly run Republican campaign would defeat Donald J. Trump — that is, if the former president survives his various legal challenges politically unscathed.

But if you’re tempted to write Mr. DeSantis off, you might want to reconsider. The history of primaries is littered with candidates who have been written off, only to enter the fray. Unknown candidates such as Herman Cain become the front runner for a while. Early front runners like Joe Biden and John McCain get written off and then come back to win. Even Barack Obama spent six months struggling and chasing an “inevitable” Hillary Clinton by double digits.

Perhaps one day we’ll say something similar about Mr. DeSantis’ candidacy. As with the candidates who eventually rose to victory, the strengths that made Mr. DeSantis seemed so promising after the midterm elections, still there. He still has unusually broad appeal within the Republican Party. His favorable reviews remain strong – stronger than From Mr. Trump — although his stance against Mr. Trump has deteriorated in mutual polls. He is still defined by issues – such as the fight against “wake up” and coronavirus restrictions – which have broad appeal in his party as well. If this was enough to be a strong contender in January, there’s reason why it could be again.

While it’s easy to see Mr. DeSantis’ decline in recent months as a sign of deep weakness, the volatility of the polls can also be interpreted as a large pool of voters open to both candidates. They can tend to sway one way or another depending on which way the political wind is blowing.

The strategy of Mr. DeSantis so far this year may also have increased the likelihood of major swings. As I wrote last week, there are two theories to defeat the former president: Trumpism without Trump and a revived conservative alternative to Trump. Of the two, the proto-DeSantis campaign can more easily be interpreted as a version of Trumpism without Trump. If his campaign has done anything, it’s narrowed down any disagreement with Mr. Trump — even to a mistake. Mr. DeSantis has not really made an explicit or implied case against the former president. Perhaps even worse, he hasn’t hit back after being attacked.

This combination of choices has contributed to Mr. DeSantis’s support waning unusually quickly. After all, the only thing that unites a hypothetical Trumpism without a Trump coalition is the opposition to Mr. Trump and the prospect of defeating him. If you don’t attack him And you lose to him, then you don’t say or do the only two things that can keep your supporters together.

The evaporating basis for Mr. DeSantis’ support has played out subtly differently on two different fronts. On the right, conservative voters open to anyone other than Mr Trump have nonetheless returned to the former president’s side. What kind of conservative does Trumpism want without power? Towards the center, the many relatively moderate and neoconservative establishment Republicans who yearn for a candidacy that opposes Trumpism, not just the behavior of the man himself, have withheld crucial support from Mr. DeSantis and flirted with other options, from Chris Christie to Chris Sununu.

But if the DeSantis campaign can revive the case for his Trumpism without Trump’s candidacy, he could quickly win back many of the voters who supported him a few months ago. It’s even possible that the current media narrative and low expectations are paving the way for a DeSantis resurgence.

Imagine how it would feel if he were launched a successful, forceful attack on Mr. Trump after all those months on the defensive. What could otherwise have been a routine sparring match would take on far greater significance, unleashing months of pent-up fear in his supporters. What if part of the reason he’s announcing his candidacy on Twitter is to mock Truth Social? As crazy as it sounds, successfully putting Mr. Trump down could be breathe new life into his candidacy – and the media loves a comeback story.

A major factor keeping Mr. DeSantis’ path open is that none of the possible moderate alternatives for him have so far gained a foothold in the race. If they did, it would deny him the moderate and neo-conservative voters who supported John Kasich and Marco Rubio in the last primary. He was essentially going to be another Ted Cruz.

But for now, Mr. DeSantis is the only viable non-Trump candidate in town. As long as that is true, he will have every chance of returning among voters who prefer someone other than Mr. Trump — if there is a market for someone other than Mr. Trump.

Whether there is enough demand for an alternative to Trump may ultimately be the bigger question than whether Mr. DeSantis can revive his campaign. With Mr. Trump already at over 50 percent support in the polls, beating Mr. Trump may take some pauses, such as the possibility that his legal challenges are worse than we might think. It might also take a DeSantis win in Iowa to break Mr. Trump’s hold on a crucial part of the party, just as the midterm elections seemed to temporarily crack Mr. Trump’s base last winter.

But even if Mr. Trump is a clear favorite, it’s easy to see how Mr. DeSantis can at least make it a competitive race again. When he can focus on his own problems, he has a distinctive political brand that rarely appeals to a divided Republican party. With expectations so low, the foundations for recovery may well be laid. It’s happened before.