A polarized Pakistan goes to the polls with an almost certain result

Pakistanis have called it a “selection” – not an election. Human rights observers have condemned this process as neither free nor fair.

As voters went to the polls on Thursday, the influence of Pakistan's powerful military and the turbulent state of its politics were clearly visible. Few doubted which party would come out on top, a reflection of the generals' eventual grip on Pakistan's troubled democracy.

But the military is facing new challenges to its authority from a disaffected public, making this an especially fraught moment in the country's history.

The tension was underlined on Thursday when Pakistan's interior ministry announced it would suspend mobile phone service across the country due to the security situation. Some analysts in Pakistan see it as an attempt to prevent opposition voters from obtaining information or coordinating activities.

The election took place in the shadow of a months-long military campaign to undermine the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a former international cricket star and populist leader who was ousted by parliament in 2022 after falling out with the generals.

The crackdown is the latest dizzying twist in the country's rollercoaster politics.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, the party of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is expected to claim victory in Thursday's vote. Mr Sharif himself was ousted when he fell out of favor with the military in 2017, and Mr Khan, with military support, became prime minister a year later.

Now Mr Khan is in jail after an acrimonious split with the military over his political control, while Mr Sharif is apparently seen by the generals as the only figure in Pakistan with the status to rival the widely popular Mr Khan. Khan.

Voters will elect members of the country's provincial legislature and parliament, which will appoint the next prime minister. It is considered unlikely that any party will win an outright majority, meaning the party with the largest share of seats would form a coalition government. Officially, this will be only the third democratic transition between civilian governments in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people.

The military has ruled Pakistan directly through several coups or indirectly under civilian governments since the country gained independence in 1947. It has often meddled in election cycles to clear the way for its favored candidates and winnow the field from its competitors. But the military has used a particularly heavy hand ahead of this vote, analysts say, a reflection of growing anti-military fervor in the country, stoked by Mr. Khan.

The crackdown has drawn widespread condemnation from local and international human rights groups. On Tuesday, the United Nations' top human rights body expressed concern about “the pattern of intimidation, arrests and prolonged detentions of leaders.”

“We deplore any acts of violence against political parties and candidates, and urge authorities to uphold the fundamental freedoms necessary for an inclusive and meaningful democratic process,” said Liz Throssell, spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights UN, at a press conference. .

The campaign of intimidation came at a particularly turbulent time in Pakistan. Months after Mr Khan was removed from office, he railed against the country's generals, accusing them of orchestrating his ouster – a claim they reject. His direct criticism of the military was unheard of in Pakistan. It inspired his supporters to come out en masse to express their anger at the military for its role in his removal.

“Imran Khan is the clearest case of failed political manipulation; the army became a victim of its own technology,” said Zafarullah Khan, an Islamabad-based analyst. “Now civil-military relations are being written on the streets. This is unique in Pakistan.”

After violent protests broke out against military installations in May, the generals responded with force. Leaders of Mr. Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, were arrested and ordered to denounce the party. PTI supporters were also attacked by the police. Mr Khan was sentenced to a total of 34 years in prison after being convicted in four cases and barred from running in the elections.

Authorities also allowed Mr. Khan's rival, Mr. Sharif, who had been in exile for years, to return to the country. He quickly became a front-runner in the race after Pakistani courts overturned the corruption convictions that led to his ouster in 2017 and overturned his disqualification from running in elections.

The military also sought détente with Mr. Sharif, who has a loyal base of supporters in the country's most populous province, Punjab, analysts say. Pakistan's other major political party, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), does not have nearly the same national appeal as PMLN

Mr Sharif has built his reputation on reviving the country's economy – which is currently struggling with double-digit inflation – and building mega-projects such as superhighways. He has also pushed for more civilian control of the government and had his terms cut short after falling out with the military — a history that raises doubts about how long this latest rapprochement with the generals will last.

The unrest has exposed the dismal state of Pakistani politics, a winner-takes-all game dominated by a handful of political dynasties and ultimately controlled by the military. In the country's 76-year history, no prime minister has ever served a term in office. These elections are also the first in decades in which no party has campaigned on a platform for reforming that entrenched system.

“All mainstream political parties have accepted the role of the military in politics; there is no challenge,” said Mustafa Nawaz Kokhar, a former senator from the Pakistan People's Party and an outspoken critic of the military, who is running as an independent candidate in Islamabad.

Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, and Zia ur-Rehman from Lahore.