As CFP meetings resume, the battle for control over the future of the sport continues
– Reporting by Andrew Marchand, Nicole Auerbach, Stewart Mandel and Chris Vannini
The future of college football could get some much-needed clarity this week. At least that's the hope of many involved in planning the sport's long-awaited expanded postseason.
ESPN has reached an agreement with College Football Playoff representatives on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension to televise the event through 2031-2032. But the commissioners and presidents leading the CFP have not yet agreed on aspects of the format other than the 12-team model for the next two seasons, which will make for a crucial few days of meetings.
The agreement on terms negotiated by ESPN and the firm CAA Evolution, which represents the CFP, has been in place for months, but CFP leaders must still vote on the deal before it takes effect. The inability of these leaders to reach consensus on issues they hoped to settle before signing has been described as a “mess” by some executives involved.
Commissioners have said they view the Playoff for the 2026-2027 season as a clean slate, with no particular allegiance to the formats or decisions made over the past decade. But that approach means a lot needs to be sorted out, from automatic berths to revenue distribution, and outside observers are keen to see progress.
Meanwhile, ESPN executives are growing impatient and, as Puck business writer John Ourand first said, will consider withdrawing the offer if the CFP fails to take swift action.
The Board of Governors, the university presidents and chancellors who form the organization's highest governing body, will meet virtually on Tuesday. The commissioners (and Notre Dame leadership) who make up the CFP Management Committee will meet in person in Dallas on Wednesday. Can they reach a consensus on the details for 2026 and beyond that have held back progress so far? And if not, what happens?
“What is the alternative? No play-off?” said a source involved in the discussions. “That is not feasible. That would be a disaster.”
A possible alternative is what many student athletes feared when the SEC and Big Ten announced their new joint advisory group: an eventual breakaway from the richest and most powerful leagues in college athletics. Even if it serves only as an implied threat, it could give the two conferences significant leverage in negotiations that will determine the future of college athletics.
Those attending the two rallies this week are preparing for a battle that could be cutthroat and controversial.
“The corporate world does not have the same expectations of collegiality from colleagues as higher education does,” one person said.
And when it comes to the CFP negotiations, they clash.
It's been almost three years since a four-person subcommittee first proposed a 12-team model. It has been more than seventeen months since the CFP Board of Managers forced the commissioners back to the table and officially approved it. Yet few of the most consequential problems have been resolved, despite dozens of commissioners' meetings, mostly at hotels at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. Those on the inside know how bad it looks to those on the outside.
“It's shameful,” said one commissioner. “It was embarrassing (how long it took) to get to 12.”
Major college athletics has undergone dramatic changes over the past three years, with Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC, USC and UCLA moving to the Big Ten and the subsequent implosion of the Pac-12. There has also been significant turnover among the commissioners of the power conferences; only the SEC's Greg Sankey has been at the helm for more than three years. The Big Ten and Big 12 hired leaders with professional sports backgrounds.
Some commissioners in the room acknowledge that the mighty Big Ten and SEC have the power to chart a course forward, but they haven't mapped it out yet. Those commissioners also say they don't know exactly what the Big Ten and SEC are want to from the remaining debates. The hope is more clarity during the meetings Tuesday and Wednesday.
The implosion of the Pac-12 has accelerated the push to change the 12-team model to five conference champions and seven at-large berths for the next two seasons, from the original structure that included six of each. The board is expected to vote on the 5+7 plan during Tuesday's virtual meeting, according to three sources briefed on the process.
Washington State President Kirk Schulz, the Pac-12 representative and sole supporter at the board's most recent meeting, is expected to propose that WSU and Oregon State receive similar revenue and voting rights in 2026 and beyond are with those of Power 4 schools. It is unclear whether there is much support for this, especially since future revenue and governance plans have not been set for anyone.
Two sources involved in the approval process said they expect 5+7 to be the starting point of the format debate for 2026 and beyond, but acknowledged it may not be the final solution. Sankey has on numerous occasions imagined a world without automatic berths. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has proposed reconsidering bracket sizes that had previously been ignored, such as a 16-team field, people familiar with that discussion have told The Athletics.
As for revenue distribution, it's safe to assume that leagues will be rewarded both for the number of teams that make the field and the rate at which those teams advance, much like the payout model for the men's NCAA Tournament, a source reports on the distribution of income. discussions said. How much participation and wins are worth remains unresolved, as does the starting amount allocated to each competition. Currently, the Power 5 leagues split about 80 percent of CFP revenues, with each conference receiving about the same share regardless of postseason appearance or performance.
One source involved in the discussions said they expect the Big Ten and SEC will push for revenue shares larger than those of the Big 12 and ACC, creating further separation between the two groups. The differentiation could come in the form of a larger percentage of revenue for the Big Ten and SEC, per league or per school, the source said.
Then there's the matter of governance: Should the Big Ten and the SEC, which recently formed a joint advisory group to “take a leadership role in developing solutions for a sustainable future of college sports,” push for more autonomy and/or more control over the company? Decisions for 2026 and beyond will not require a unanimous vote as is the case now, because the current contract will not continue. And those two leagues could withhold support for the media deal until these issues are resolved to their liking.
ESPN “won't wait forever” for the Playoff to decide its future. (Photo: Stephen Lew/USA Today)
ESPN has not yet set a deadline for the CFP to ratify its deal, but a source with knowledge of ESPN's thinking said: “It won't wait forever.”
The current contract between the CFP and ESPN averages $609 million per year but is escalating over time. That's why ESPN views the new terms as a 28 percent increase, according to executives briefed on their discussions. The network is currently on the hook to pay approximately $800 million for each of the final two seasons of the original contract, and is valuing the four new first-round matchups at a total of $100 million, bringing the spend to approximately $900 million amounts for each of the seasons. next two years. If the new terms are ratified, the average payout over the life of the six-year contract will be $1.3 billion per season through 2031-2032, with annual payment numbers increasing over the life of the contract.
ESPN also has the option to sublicense five CFP games per season, according to officials briefed on the terms of the agreement. At its sole discretion, ESPN may look at the market and decide whether to allow other networks to enter for a fee at any time through 2032.
Although ESPN has finalized an agreement on terms, in the wake of multiple reports of the deal last week, some rival networks were told by factions within the CFP leadership that they could submit new bids, according to officials with knowledge of the discussions. But companies like Fox, NBC and CBS have not made any known offers. ESPN is still considered the clear frontrunner.
Fox and NBC, the two most likely networks to emerge as alternate destinations, have so far found that the price of the potential CFP will not overshoot, especially given the uncertainties surrounding the format. In the wake of ESPN, Fox Sports and Warner Brothers Discovery's “Skinny Bundle” partnership — in which the brands will offer their services directly to consumers for an estimated $40-$50 per month — NBC could potentially reassess an offer, but it would be quite a gamble for CFP to wait and see if NBC suddenly becomes interested, especially when the network would likely only compete for half a package at best.
The CFP is part of ESPN's five-year plan that includes an upcoming new bid for NBA rights, hopes to continue its relationship with UFC and an interest in solving the regional sports network crisis affecting Major League Baseball, the NBA and meets the NHL. The $1.3 billion per year expenditure ahead of the CFP is not the amount Disney CEO Bob Iger and ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro can find between the seat cushions of a Space Mountain ride.
ESPN has already secured CFP rights and is eager to retain its full panoply of college football events as it launches its new venture with Fox Sports and WBD Sports this fall and ahead of its own standalone direct-to-consumer launch in 2025. The network recently relaunched became home to the Division I women's basketball tournament and most other NCAA championships for $920 million over eight years, giving it potential control of the postseason for all college sports except the Division I men's basketball tournament. , owned by CBS and WBD Sports. If ESPN were to relinquish the CFP, ESPN would still retain its foothold on long-term SEC and ACC exclusivity, Big 12 rights and, for the next two seasons, at least a majority of the CFP.
It is against this media backdrop that CFP leaders will meet this week, tasked with cleaning up the “mess” and finding a path to alignment to raise the billions Iger and Pitaro have on the table.
“We are 10 months away from the start of the expanded Playoff,” Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said The Athletics. “There's a lot to do. You don't flip a switch. The clock is ticking.”
(Top photo: Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)