Why a port deal puts the Horn of Africa on edge
The government of landlocked Ethiopia has signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway republic in northwestern Somalia, giving Ethiopia commercial and military access to the Red Sea gateway – a port deal that could ease tensions in the tumultuous Hoorn threatens to flare up. of the Africa region.
In a memorandum of understanding signed on Monday with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, Somaliland’s leader Muse Bihi Abdi, said he would lease more than 19 kilometers of sea access to the Ethiopian Navy for 50 years. In return, Ethiopia would formally recognize Somaliland as an independent nation, a move that Abdi said would “set a precedent as the first nation to grant international recognition to our country.”
Somaliland would also get a stake in state-owned Syrian Airlines, Mr Abiy’s national security adviser, Redwan Hussien, said in announcing the deal. He did not provide further details.
The agreement for access to the Somaliland port of Berbera is not legally binding, but could lead to an enforceable treaty between the two sides after extensive negotiations in the coming months.
Here’s why the agreement matters.
What consequences will the deal have for the region?
The pact has thrown the Horn of Africa into turmoil, and that is already happening ravaged by civil warpolitical bickering and widespread humanitarian crises. Observers say the deal could also cause further tensions in the Red Sea, a crucial global shipping lane that has become increasingly dangerous during the war between Israel and Hamas.
The biggest objection came from Somalia, where Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s office held an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the deal. Somali government called the agreement “null and void” and asked both the African Union and the United Nations Security Council to hold meetings on the issue. Somalia also recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for urgent consultations.
“Somalia belongs to the Somalis,” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said in an impassioned speech in parliament on Tuesday afternoon, vowing to defend his country’s sovereignty. “We will protect every inch of our sacred land and will not tolerate attempts to relinquish any part of it.”
A few days earlier, he and Mr. Abdi had done the same met in neighboring Djibouti to chart a path forward — conversations that experts say are now likely in shambles.
Eritrea and Egypt will also be concerned about Ethiopia’s presence in the strategic Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, observers say.
And in Djibouti, which charges Ethiopia about $1.5 billion a year to use its ports, observers say the loss of such revenues could lead to instability for President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who during his more than two decades in office in power has benefited from that influx of money. .
Why is access to the sea important for Ethiopia?
Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, lost its access to the sea when Eritrea seceded and declared independence in 1993.
Since then, Ethiopia has relied on Djibouti for international trade, with more than 95 percent of its imports and exports passing through the Addis Ababa-Djibouti corridor. according to the World Bank. The $1.5 billion a year in fees that Ethiopia spends on the use of Djibouti’s ports is a huge sum for a country that found it difficult to pay off his large debts.
For years, the Ethiopian government has sought to diversify access to seaports, including by exploring options in Sudan Kenya. In 2018, it signed a deal to acquire a 19 percent stake in the port of Berbera, but the deal fell through…through.
In recent months, Mr Abiy has become more assertive about his country’s ambitions to acquire a port along the East African coast. In comments broadcast on state television in October he said his government must find a way to free the 126 million people from their “geographic prison.” He also referred to a 19th-century Ethiopian warrior who he said declared the Red Sea the “natural border” of Ethiopia.
The comments shocked the region, with observers and officials concerned that Mr Abiy could start a new war like him suffers from internal divisions and just a year later the end of the brutal conflict in the country’s northern Tigray region.
“The entire region was in an uproar over these statements,” said Samira Gaid, senior Horn of Africa analyst at Balqiis Insights, a research consultancy in the Somali capital Mogadishu. “Everyone has since been aware of how a regional hegemon like Ethiopia would want to gain access to the sea.”
What’s in it for Somaliland?
Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, established its own currency and flag, and has held numerous parliamentary and presidential elections. The area is considered an oasis in a turbulent region, where a major literary festival that attracts leading authors and a marathon in the capital Hargeisathat attracts participants from all over the world.
But Somaliland has not received what it longs for most: recognition.
President Abdi, who came to power in late 2017, has overstayed his term and is operating under an expansionist structure unrecognized by the country’s political opposition. Moreover, his government faces a major challenge in the city of Las Anod, where rights groups say dozens of civilians have been killed and injured in battles between the authorities and members of a local clan.
Given all these challenges, “this deal is a lifeline” for President Abdi, Ms. Gaid said. “With statements like this, he is now pushing the boundaries and is now gaining more negotiating power.”
Hussein Mohammed contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia. A New York Times staff member contributed reporting from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.