The EU's Hungary problem threatens to become major in the run-up to the crucial summit in Ukraine
European Union leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday, hoping to approve a landmark multi-billion-euro fund for Ukraine that will help keep the country afloat for the next four years, no matter what happens on the battlefield, or in the US Congress threatening to cut aid.
The only thing standing in their way is Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary. Again.
A compromise with Mr Orban, who has demanded an annual veto over spending, has remained elusive, meaning the unanimity required for such an agreement among the EU's 27 countries still appears out of reach. If Mr Orban continues to stand in the way, EU leaders have made clear they are ready to do whatever it takes to support Ukraine and are willing to work around him – or even punish him.
But even if the remaining 26 leaders are not forced to move on without Mr Orbán, there is now clearly a bigger issue at stake: what will the EU do about the Hungary problem?
For a small country that accounts for just 1 percent of the bloc's economic output, Hungary has been a major problem.
The country has been at loggerheads with the EU for years because of its violations of EU norms and values regarding the rule of law. And it has consistently delayed, shelved or hindered a range of European ambitions, including some sanctions against Russia and Sweden's bid to join NATO.
But Hungary's role as a spoiler in the EU's efforts to unite behind Ukraine, and Mr. Orbán's personal alliance with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, are now seen by his peers as a security threat to Europe. And it is one, they say, that they will not tolerate.
That makes the current standoff with Mr. Orban qualitatively different from previous ones, and a confrontation that could portend a deeper rift.
Boogeyman and Piggy Bank
Despite mounting threats and rebukes from his EU partners, Mr Orbán is persistent in leading his country deeper down an illiberal path.
While this course has brought Mr Orbán outsized fame, it has also become increasingly expensive for his country.
Hungary's legal discrimination against LGBTQ people, the dismantling of its anti-corruption structures and the hijacking of the judiciary have led the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, to freeze tens of billions of euros in funds until Hungary makes changes .
Hungarian officials tried to convince the commission that reforms are coming, and they made some changes in exchange for frozen funds. But every time the bloc has had to make a decision that requires unanimity – especially when it comes to supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia – Mr Orban has taken the opportunity to use his veto as leverage to try to extract concessions.
There is also political advantage for Mr Orbán at home. Since his election in 2010, the bloc has played an important role in his political identity. He has portrayed the country as the “woke globalist” bogeyman he is protecting Hungary from.
The EU has become a catch-all term for Hungary's economic, demographic and other problems – and an easy punching bag that Mr Orbán uses to position himself as the leader of a pan-European movement in defense of national sovereignty and traditional values.
But the EU also has plenty of leverage, and it will want to use it all to reach a compromise with Mr Orban at Thursday's summit.
Few countries have benefited more from EU funding than Hungary. The bloc has been Hungary's piggy bank, a source of vital financing that Mr Orbán has tapped to provide subsidies and benefits that have in turn strengthened his political position.
Until disputes with Brussels began disrupting the flow of money, Hungary was the third-largest net recipient of EU funds. That means it took billions of euros more out of the EU budget than it put in, according to the German government's Center for European Policy. research group.
After plunging into recession in 2023, Hungary needs that European money now more than ever as it struggles to revive anemic growth, fill a major budget hole and boost confidence in its sagging national currency , the forint, to recover.
The Orban conundrum
Mr Orbán has not only become more stubborn in the eyes of his EU partners, but also more difficult to read.
“Lately, people have become less sure about what is going on with Orbán and think he is more unpredictable,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, leader of the Center for European Reform, a think tank.
Briefing reporters ahead of the summit, senior EU officials readily acknowledged that, unable to rely on hard facts to predict Mr Orban's next move, they have resorted to psychoanalyzing him.
Until now, a major assumption in EU circles has been that Mr Orbán is motivated primarily by money: give him some, and his objections to the EU's Ukraine policy will disappear.
That thinking underlies the long-standing belief in Brussels that a rift with Hungary is avoidable because, if Mr Orbán is not convinced, he can at least be bribed.
Mr Orbán insists that his objection to sanctioning Russia and providing more aid to Ukraine is about principle, not cash, and that he simply does not agree that Russia threatens Europe's security.
Mr Orban wants disbursements from the EU fund to be unanimously approved annually, claiming he wants to safeguard the EU money.
Most observers decipher Mr. Orbán's demand as an attempt to give himself an annual opportunity to weaponize his veto and demand EU funds withheld from Hungary. But there are other interpretations.
“One of the theories going around is that he was paid by Putin,” Ms. Mortera-Martinez said, citing Mr. Orban's decision to skip an EU summit and go to Beijing instead to travel and have a photo taken with the Russian president as a particularly difficult moment. .
Another theory is that Mr Orban believes the world is about to change dramatically in his favor as his political positions – conservative Christian values, anti-migration policies and pro-Russian views – are on the rise.
“He has seen that nativist forces are winning in EU member states, but also that Trump can win, and that could completely change the European Union's approach to Ukraine,” Mortera-Martinez said.
Whatever the case, the somber mood towards Orbán will be palpable when he joins the other EU leaders in Brussels. If the summit ends without an agreement with Ukraine, voices calling for him to be more decisively isolated are likely to increase.
But think ways to Orban-proof their decisions will be a painful task, given that the EU is designed to be more or less permanent and that there is no appetite for drama in the run-up to elections across the European Union for the bloc's parliament in June.
If Mr Orban visits the summit, his colleagues will be ready to help him present the outcome as a personal victory. But going forward, he may need a new playbook, and he'll struggle to find friends in the room.
“Viktor Orban has become something of a pantomime villain,” said Jacob Kirkegaard of the German Marshall Fund, “and leaders see him as a bad-faith actor.”
“He is running out of political rope because of his attitude and because the stakes have risen,” Mr. Kirkegaard said. “He picked a very bad hill to die on.”
Andrew Higgins contributed reporting from Warsaw, and Monika Pronczuk from Brussels.