With Feinstein ill, Newsom’s vow looms over the senate race

Two years ago, California Governor Gavin Newsom vowed on national television that if Senator Dianne Feinstein resigned early, he would appoint a black woman to replace her.

It was a promise that was only theoretical at the time, although questions have already been raised about the suitability of Ms Feinstein, who turns 90 next month, to serve out her term. But after Ms. Feinstein contracted shingles earlier this year, was housebound, and then returned to Washington more fragile than ever, the contingency plan has become much more urgent — and politically more complicated.

A heated 2024 campaign to replace Ms. Feinstein is already underway, with three California congressional delegation heavyweights: Representative Katie Porter, a favorite of the progressive left; Representative Adam Schiff, who rose to national prominence for leading the first impeachment of former President Donald J. Trump; and Representative Barbara Lee, the only black woman of the three, who is best known for casting the single vote in Congress against the war in Afghanistan more than two decades ago.

If a vacancy comes up, Mr Newsom would have to decide whether to place Ms Lee above her white rivals or find a janitor who agrees not to seek a full term in 2024, assuming he keeps his promise.

“The hardest part now is that the race isn’t that many months away, is it?” said Mr. Newsom in a local television news interview this month about the upcoming Senate election. “The primary is early next year, so it’s a very different place now — it’s not an academic talk, like it was a year ago.”

Black leaders are watching closely. “All we have as political people is our word,” said Lori D. Wilson, the chair of the California Legislative Black Caucus, which supports Ms. Lee’s nomination.

Mr. Newsom has already nominated a US senator to replace Kamala Harris after she became vice president with Senator Alex Padilla, California’s first Latino senator. However, the decision in December 2020 removed black women from serving in the Senate, disappointing black leaders and party activists.

Nearly three months later, Mr. Newsom pledged to appoint a black woman to replace Ms. Feinstein, if she ever resigned, during an interview on MSNBC with Joy Reid, the network’s most prominent black woman.

Ms. Feinstein has given no indication that she intends to resign, even though her condition has clearly deteriorated. A New York Times report this week revealed that Ms. Feinstein suffered from encephalitis, a previously undisclosed complication of the shingles attack that kept her away from the Senate for more than two months. The condition, which is characterized by brain swelling, can lead to permanent memory or language problems.

Mr Newsom has expressed his wishes for her improved health, calling her “a mentor and a friend”. But he cannot escape the political consequences if she were to leave office early, as he would be forced to choose her replacement.

“I hope I never have to make that decision,” Mr Newsom said last month.

Decades apart in age, Mr. Newsom, 55, and Ms. Feinstein both cut their teeth into San Francisco’s bare-bones politics and are mostly allied, with one notable exception in 2004 after Mr. Newsom decided to issue same-sex marriage licenses at City Hall. When Democrats suffered losses that fall, including the White House, Ms. Feinstein obliquely blamed the mayor for motivating conservatives, calling it “too much, too soon, too soon.”

Garry South, a Democratic political consultant who worked in the administrations of former governors in California and Ohio, says Mr. Newsom’s predicament is reminiscent of what he describes as the poisoned chalice of political nominations.

“It’s kind of a no-win situation,” he said of Mr Newsom’s choice of candidates. “When you appoint someone, you get one ungrateful and nine people who are angry with you.”

Mr South, who was once campaign manager for Mr Newsom, predicted the governor would not “put his thumb on the scale” among the three candidates.

“I think he would be perfectly excused for appointing an agent until the Democrats sort out which of these three big Democrats they want to move into the general election,” he said.

Even the idea of ​​appointing a caretaker can be fraught.

Mr. Newsom, who has spoken little publicly about who he might appoint, has seen firsthand that short-term appointees don’t necessarily keep their word. When he left the San Francisco mayoralty, Mr. Newsom supported Ed Lee as his temporary replacement. At the time, Mr. Lee promised not to seek a full term, but eventually he did.

Some allies of Ms. Lee, who is not related to Mr. Lee, have publicly stepped up pressure for Ms. Feinstein to resign, most notably Representative Ro Khanna of California. But Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives who supported Mr. Schiff for the Senate, has rejected calls for Ms. Feinstein to resign as sexist.

Mr. South points out that from a horse racing point of view, Ms. Lee is looking into the single digits early polls, third behind Mr. Schiff and Mrs. Porter. “What sense would it make to place a candidate a distant third above the other two better-known, higher-scoring candidates?” he said.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Mr. Newsom’s own circle of political strategists has divided loyalties.

The company of his old advisers, Ace Smith and Sean Clegg, works for a pro-Schiff super PAC. His former spokesman, Nathan Click, advises Ms. Porter. Two other Newsom strategists, Dan Newman and Brian Brokaw, work for a pro-Lee super PAC.