Finland will vote for a new president in its first election since joining NATO

Voters in Finland will cast their ballots on Sunday in presidential elections that come as NATO's newest member faces the threat of a hostile Russia.

The elections, which are expected to require a second round of voting, are for Finland's first new head of state in 12 years. The country's wildly popular president, Sauli Niinistö, has served two terms and is no longer eligible to run for another election.

Mr Niinistö is seen as a stabilizing force and is considered the person most responsible for Finland's entry into the NATO alliance, leaving big shoes to fill for whoever assumes the presidency.

From a field of nine candidates the latest polls show two leaders: Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto. Both are well-known faces with strong foreign policy credentials.

The results of Sunday's elections are expected later Sunday. If no candidate receives more than half of the votes, a runoff election will be held on February 11 between the top two winners of the first round.

While most European presidents serve largely ceremonial roles, Finland drives foreign policy and serves as commander-in-chief. That helped catapult Mr Niinistö to global prominence after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 – and boosted his approval rating, which sits above 90 percent.

“The most important decision of Sauli Niinistö's presidency was to join NATO,” wrote retired political journalist Unto Hämäläinen in the current issue of the Finnish magazine Helsingin Sanomat. “His term of office will therefore be remembered after decades.”

The new president will not only draw comparisons to Mr Niinistö but is also expected to build on his legacy, analysts say. First, the country will manage Finland's integration into NATO, amid concerns about possible Russian aggression and escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea region.

“Expectations are quite high for the successor,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, professor of political history at the University of Helsinki.

Finland shares a border of 1,300 kilometers with Russia and has a combative history. The neighbors have fought numerous wars over the centuries, and the Finns have strong memories of the 1939 Winter War and World War II, when their country fought the Soviet Union and lost territory. As the war in Ukraine continues and Finnish officials accuse Russia of trying to destabilize their country, analysts say security is the main issue on voters' minds.

That's why, they say, voters are looking for a president with the broadest possible foreign policy experience. The candidate pool reflects that.

“Even the liberal candidates have adopted a line that emphasizes military preparedness and border security,” said Johanna Vuorelma, a researcher at the University of Helsinki's Center for European Studies.

Mr Haavisto is making his third presidential bid after losing to Mr Niinistö in the past two elections. Mr Haavisto, founder of the centre-left Greens Party, first ran for parliament in 1987 and has since been a major part of Finnish politics, as a lawmaker, UN official and in various government positions. Most recently, he served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland from 2019 to 2023.

Mr Stubb is also a former Minister of Foreign Affairs and a former Prime Minister. A prominent member of the centre-right, he left Finnish politics in 2017 and vowed not to return, but has said Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed his mind.

The candidates agree on most foreign policy issues, including NATO membership, securing the country's border with Russia and how to deal with Moscow.

That has made the differences in their personalities all the more important to voters, analysts said. Since the campaign season got into full swing last summer, the candidates have traveled around Finland meeting voters at schools, gas stations, shopping centers and markets. Mr Stubb, an Ironman triathlete, has often appeared at sporting events. Mr. Haavisto has adopted the stage name “DJ Pexi” and played records at student events to appeal to younger voters.

The debates have been conducted with dignity and civility, in contrast to the parliamentary election campaigns, which are often noisy. Both Mr Haavisto and Mr Stubb cast themselves as unifiers during the campaign, most likely because of expectations that the election would go to a second round.

Voter turnout in Finland, a country with 5.6 million inhabitants, was around or above 70 percent for the presidential election. More than 1.8 million Finns, or 44 percent of the country's voters, have already cast their votes early. according to preliminary data.