In Finland, Blinken, NATO’s newest member, details Russia’s ‘failures’

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken took the stage in Finland, NATO’s newest member, on Friday to say that further strengthening Ukraine’s defenses against Russia was a “precondition” for diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and to warning of a short-term ceasefire. fires that could play in Moscow’s favour.

In a powerfully symbolic speech at City Hall in Helsinki, Finland’s capital, Mr Blinken took stock of the many ways Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin’s war had backfired since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 .

He noted, among other things, Finland’s decision last year to break with decades of strict neutrality and join the NATO alliance, a major strategic blow to Mr Putin, who sees NATO expansion as a serious threat. for Russian security.

Mr Putin’s war “has been a strategic failure – it has significantly reduced Russia’s power, interests and influence for years to come,” Mr Blinken said. “If you look at President Putin’s long-term strategic goals and objectives, there is no doubt: Russia today is significantly worse off than before the full-scale invasion – militarily, economically, geopolitically,” he added.

“Where Putin wanted to radiate strength, he has revealed weakness,” he said. “Where he tried to divide, he united. What he tried to prevent, he knocked down.”

While Mr Blinken’s speech broke few new ground, the speech from a country that shares an 832-mile border with Russia and which the NATO alliance now wants to defend amounted to a victory lap that would likely embarrass Mr Putin , if not enraged. .

Finland’s official entry into NATO in April, Mr Blinken said, was “a major change that would have been unthinkable” before the war in Ukraine – and one Mr Putin brought upon himself by invading his neighbour.

Mr Blinken spoke at the end of a week-long trip to Norway, Sweden and Finland, which included meetings with NATO officials designed to highlight Western resolve against Russia and to discuss the alliance’s long-term relationship with Ukraine , which seeks NATO membership and security guarantees.

Speaking to European leaders on Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for his country’s membership in NATO, saying “a clear invitation from members of Ukraine is needed” this year. But in comments on Friday he also acknowledged that Ukraine could not join the alliance as long as it was at war with Russia.

Both the President of France and the British Defense Secretary have made a similar point in recent dayssaying they support Ukraine, but full NATO membership was out of reach for now.

Mr Putin has cited NATO’s eastward expansion as one of his justifications for the invasion. On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov said Russia would continue to act in its national security interests, according to the state news agency. Bag.

“This means preventing the expansion of the alliance, as well as the clear advance to our borders and Ukraine’s possible NATO membership,” he said.

In his 40-minute speech on Friday, Mr Blinken argued for the Biden administration’s thinking on the war, saying that Mr Putin had unwittingly exposed and exacerbated the weakness of the Russian military, hindered its economy, had cost, and inspired NATO to become better funded, more united – and bigger.

The speech had a triumphant tone at times: at one point Mr. Blinken joked that the Russian army, once heralded as the second strongest in the world, was now “the second strongest in Ukraine”. But it also contained cautionary notes about the long and difficult road ahead for Ukraine, especially amid what Mr Blinken predicted would be fresh calls to stop the fighting.

US officials believe that if, as expected, a forthcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive fails to produce dramatic gains, pressure will mount from around the world to find a way to at least suspend the fighting.

“In the coming months, some countries will call for a ceasefire,” Blinken said. At first glance, that sounds sensible—appealing, even. After all, who would not want warring parties to lay down their arms? Who doesn’t want the killing to stop?”

But a ceasefire that freezes current lines, with Russia controlling large swathes of Ukrainian territory, he added, “is not a just and lasting peace. It’s a Potemkin peace. It would legitimize Russia’s land grab. It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim.”

While insisting that the United States and Ukraine would like to see an end to the war, Mr Blinken warned that Mr Putin does not seem ready for good faith negotiations. The Russian leader has insisted that talks cannot take place until Ukraine accepts Russia’s claims that it has annexed four of its eastern regions.

Samuel Charap, a former State Department official in the Obama administration and a Russia analyst with the RAND Corporation, said Mr Blinken may be setting the bar too high.

“If serious talks mean a willingness to make pre-emptive concessions on territory, Putin will never meet that bar,” Charap said.

Many US officials believe that Putin is aiming to gain far more control over Ukraine than he currently has, something he needs time to do.

The Russian leader is “convinced that he can survive Ukraine and its supporters simply by sending more and more Russians to their deaths and making Ukrainian citizens suffer more and more,” Blinken said. “He thinks that even if he loses the short game, he can still win the long game.”

Still, Mr Blinken added, the United States would support any peace initiative “that helps President Putin to engage in meaningful diplomacy at the table,” the foreign minister said. He added that such efforts should include Russian accountability for wartime atrocities and payments for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Mr Blinken said, as he did before, that a peace agreement must “affirm the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”. But, as before, he did not specify whether the US believes Russia should withdraw from all of Ukraine’s territory — including the strategic Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014 and which many analysts believe Putin will never surrender.

Mr Blinken also said a genuine peace deal could open the door to lifting Western sanctions against Russia “related to concrete actions, especially military withdrawal”. And he reiterated that “the US is not trying to overthrow the Russian government”.

Earlier on Friday, Mr Blinken met with Finland’s outgoing prime minister, Sanna Marin, and the country’s foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto.

Mr Blinken marveled at Finland’s entry into NATO, suggesting that it amounted to a colossal blunder by Mr Putin, who previously had relatively friendly relations with Helsinki. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he noted, only one in four Finns supported the country’s entry into NATO. After the invasion, three out of four Finns supported NATO membership, he said.

Mr Blinken’s performance in Helsinki was all the more striking compared to the last time a visit by an important US official made headlines here. Five years ago, President Donald J. Trump traveled to the Finnish capital to meet with Mr. Putin – a trip notorious for Mr Trump’s suggestion, at a press conference along with the Russian leader, that he relied on the denial of Mr Putin to interfere in the Finnish capital. the 2016 election on the conclusions of US intelligence agencies.

Earlier this week, Blinken visited Sweden, whose bid to join the Atlantic alliance was thwarted by Turkey, and on Thursday met with allied foreign ministers in Oslo to address concerns about Ukraine’s security in the discuss long term.

Helsinki was expected to be Mr Blinken’s last stop on a Nordic tour, as Russia, China and NATO nations battle for stronger positions in the Arctic. Later this year, the United States will open a mission with a single diplomat in the city of Tromso, Norway – the only such facility above the Arctic Circle – Mr Blinken said at a news conference on Thursday.