Finland's new president faces an unexpected first test: not Russia, but Trump

Educated in the United States and deeply pro-American, Alexander Stubb, the newly elected president of Finland, seemed perfectly poised to lead his country toward a stronger transatlantic partnership and redefine its role in the world order as a new NATO member.

Instead, he will take office next month at a time when American politics has once again questioned the sustainability of that relationship — and the wisdom of the European countries that rely on it.

For weeks, the two candidates in Finland's second presidential election, which Stubb won on Sunday, had played up their pro-NATO credentials and hardline views on Russia. Former US President Donald J. Trump then threatened that if re-elected, he would let Russia “do whatever they want” against NATO allies who do not contribute enough to collective defense.

That is certainly not what this small Nordic country of 5.6 million inhabitants, after decades of pursuing a policy of non-alignment, wants to hear, now that it has NATO's longest border with Russia – and now the European leaders warn that the continent's confrontation with Moscow could drag on for decades. .

Mr. Trump's comments have been a harsh reminder to many European countries that relying on Washington in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is no longer as certain as it seemed.

In a statement on Sunday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers in greater danger.”

Yet the newly elected Mr Stubb kept a cool head in Helsinki.

In some of his first comments since winning the election on Sunday night, he attributed Trump's words to a difference between the fiery US campaign rhetoric and the consensus views of the Finnish presidential campaigns.

“This is because foreign policy is an existential issue for us,” he told a news conference on Monday.

Instead, he urged Finns to view the disturbing comments as yet another reminder that Europe, now facing the biggest land war since World War II, must take its own defense seriously, without counting on Washington, no matter who ends up in the Oval Office.

Mr. Stubb called himself a “staunch transatlanticist” and believed that U.S. involvement in NATO was crucial. He said he nevertheless believed that Europe needed to rely more on itself.

“The entire European security order has been turned upside down by Russia's aggression and its attack on Ukraine,” he said. “We must ensure that we in Europe take care of our own share in NATO. Finland is a country that will continue to do that. We are a security provider, not a security consumer.”

Finland has a long history of war with its larger eastern neighbor; the Finns coined the term “Molotov cocktail” during their Winter War with Russia in 1939. Finland, which lives in Russia's shadow, has long had a conscript army and already spends more on its defense than the 2 percent of GDP that the NATO members pledge to spend.

Mr. Stubb, who switched between fluent Finnish, Swedish and English at his news conference, even argued that Mr. Trump was “right in principle” when he said countries are obliged to meet their spending obligations.

A center-right politician and former prime minister, Mr. Stubb earned his bachelor's degree on a golf scholarship from Furman University in South Carolina (and can mimic a remarkable Southern accent). He originally aspired to become a professional golfer, but later switched to international relations and became an academic.

He entered international politics in 2004 and was elected to the European Parliament as a candidate for the Finnish National Coalition Party. In April 2008, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen appointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs. Four months later, he addressed the country's response to Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia.

Later, as Minister for European Affairs and Minister of Finance, Mr Stubb was involved in the government's approval of a new nuclear power plant built in Finland with the Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom, as well as in the authorization to build the Kremlin-backed Nord nuclear power plant. to build. Stream 2 pipeline through Finnish waters.

Mr Stubb has since openly admitted that these decisions were mistakes.

After losing the internal leadership rivalry within his own party, Mr Stubb renounced Finnish politics. In 2017 he became vice-president of the European Investment Bank and in 2020 an academic at the European University Institute.

He attributed his return to politics to the invasion of Ukraine, which put Finland and Sweden on the path to joining NATO, redefining their role on the world stage at a time of increasing global instability.

Although Finland has a parliamentary system, the president is responsible for foreign policy and acts as commander-in-chief.

“Stubb clearly has great ambitions to take on a greater role for the president of Finland in international affairs,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, a political historian at the University of Helsinki.

As for how he would deal with the possibility of Mr. Trump becoming U.S. president again, Mr. Stubb has already told voters during his campaign that he has a plan: He would take Mr. Trump to the golf course and let him win. .