Are we entering a ‘golden age’ of football conspiracy theory?

One of the most eye-catching biographies on X, or Twitter as we all know it, was of a sportswriter at one of Britain’s biggest national newspapers. It was plain and simple and boiled down to five words: “Biased towards your football club.”

Which is true. If you’ve been following football for a while, you know that every branch of the media is out to get the club you support. You should see The Athleticsmorning meetings where we plot against the teams we most want to put together (all of them, of course). Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean we won’t try to banish Mikel Arteta from the sidelines. Or perpetuating prejudices in favor of London. Or make plans for more points deductions at Everton. It’s All the President’s Men meets 24.

To be honest, more attention is being paid to the subsidized croissants, but let’s not let the truth spoil the fun. Conspiracy theories are everywhere in football and why wouldn’t they be? This is an environment with the right climate for conspiracies to thrive: tribalism, partisanship, anger and distrust. They are not just there for supporters either. Players and ex-players are on the bandwagon, some in ways that aren’t entirely comical or wholesome. Rickie Lambert on climate change, Matt Le Tissier on Covid-19; like the first time Arnold Schwarzenegger told someone he was giving up Skynet and going into politics.

But admit it. If you follow a particular club, you are occasionally tempted by the suspicion that something or someone is purposefully hindering it. And those suspicions are clearly grounded in fact. They are all true. Even the ones that completely contradict each other.

As a starter for 10, for example, this comment on a Chelsea message board last year: “Can’t this man be a referee at Chelsea again? Too often at the moment.” We’ve got our eye on Anthony Taylor here and referees are a good place to kick off, as even journalists don’t indulge in their favoritism as much as match officials. Leeds United, the club I’m writing about, have several referees pinned to their dartboard: Ray Tinkler, Michel Kitabdjian, Christos Michas. Has a team ever had it this bad? Michas, who (doubtably) took charge of Leeds’ 1973 European Cup Winners’ Cup defeat to AC Milan, was banned from refereeing future UEFA matches due to corruption allegations. What makes you think.

Apparently Taylor persuaded Chelsea and we can’t have that. But he’s a busy man, at other times he’s robbing Manchester City (perhaps the reason City and Chelsea drew 4-4 in November; the impossible decision of who to nominate). And apparently Everton too. Which begs the question: If Taylor is biased against everyone, isn’t he actually 100 percent fair? But of course, none of this has anything to do with Taylor having days off or being a flawed Select Group official. That’s because, as everyone knows, he has Manchester United sheets. Head to the Blue Moon forum and everything becomes clear – that is, until Dzeko’s right boot puts a spoke in the wheel: “Right, so: the United-supporting referee tried to let Liverpool win?” Good point. Someone else supports him by daring to say that it may be a boring matter of incompetence. Don’t let that stop you.

But what do the numbers actually say about Taylor? Since the start of the 2020/21 season, City have won six of the 15 games he has managed and lost five; admittedly a mixed record for such a dominant team, but not a smoking gun. Chelsea has lost one of thirteen games. Scandal. Manchester United have four wins in fourteen games, mainly because they are not very good. And Liverpool? Sixteen games with Taylor in the middle, one defeat and in between a 5-0 defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford. Presumably a good way to get Taylor to disguise his loyalty. As for Everton, some will describe their crises as everyone else’s fault, even though the Premier League blatantly targeted them in terms of financial fair play.

We could walk around with referees all day long. In Spain, supporters of the smaller clubs think that the 50-50s invariably follow the side of Barcelona and Real Madrid. Scotland has long been considered Glasgow-centric, where everything is in favor of the Old Firm and the Old Firm think everything is in favor of each other. Rangers have not yet been punished in more than seventy league games. Celtic take this statistic well. Their CEO, Peter Lawwell, said at their recent AGM that the last time a penalty was awarded to Rangers, “John Greig handled the ball”. Greig’s impressive career at Ibrox ended in 1978, not long after the end of Celtic’s first nine-in-a-row. Since then, they’ve both been feeding off a bit of success.

At Liverpool there is a nagging unease about Saturday’s 12.30 kick-off – the cross they so often have to bear after international breaks. This is the Premier League’s way of purposefully handicapping them when their players are jet-lagged and leggy, because in the balance of power in the Premier League they would prefer someone else to win the title. But the Premier League hates Newcastle United, as evidenced by the delay in going through with the Saudi takeover of Newcastle. Although not as much as City, which is why City are facing all these charges.

Meanwhile, VAR = blatant cheating, which has only given conspiracy theories more oxygen. A survey conducted after the 2018 World Cup found that there was a flurry of theories about VAR calls made during that tournament, especially after African countries were eliminated. One conclusion was that belief in conspiracies seemed to be encouraged by perceived threats to the poster’s identity. And therein lies the rub.

Karen Douglas is professor of social psychology at the University of Kent. She is also currently director of a project, funded by the European Research Council, investigating the rise and effects of conspiracy theories; why they develop, why they persist, when and how they tend to be influential. Football, she says, is prone to conspiracies because of its tribal “group-versus-group” feeling and the strong emotional investment it encourages. The irony is that within football no form of prejudice is as pronounced as that of the supporters themselves. And it must be said that football discourse has never been so furious.

In the EFL, ‘the Football League is corrupt’ is a common chant at Elland Road, partly because of what happened in 2007 when Leeds became insolvent and, to the bewilderment of many, were sold back by administrators to the people who had taken them. go bankrupt in the first place. A deduction of 15 points followed. Around here you will find people who genuinely think that referees, the authorities, absolutely everyone, will do everything in their power to prevent Leeds from escaping the EFL because the club is a beef cow at this level, not least of which concerns TV rights contracts. They provide the kind of crowd figures that most EFL teams cannot, hence Sky Sports disrupting their schedule forever. But that is an other story.

As a rule, the smaller or more obscure the conspiracies, the better. The BBC can’t compete with Crystal Palace, which is why Palace is dumped into the Match of the Day graveyard time and time again. Boring, boring, in the trash after 30 seconds.

Palace fans are tired of staying up late during the final few minutes of Match of the Day (Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)

Palace have also felt like a laboratory rat over the years when it comes to new rules or changing circumstances. The 1990–91 season is the only time Palace finished in the top three of the top flight. A month before the end, UEFA decided to readmit Liverpool to European competitions after their ban after Heysel, meaning there will be no European adventure at Palace. UEFA is brave enough to do that to a club like them. Nobody cares. But Arsenal in the same position? Or Chelsea? Certainly not. Then came 1995 when the Premier League reduced the number of clubs from 22 clubs to 20. Palace finished in fourth place and went down; at least prevent Match of the Day from going through the motions.

Joking aside, what is it about football that generates grievances that then become outright conspiracies? What about the sport taking inevitable kicks in the teeth and turning them into a larger, dark art picture? Certain Tottenham supporters have it in their heads that when a negative, generic football story needs an image, the editors automatically use Spurs to represent it. Depressing stuff, so let’s go for Tottenham. Is that how it is? Or do people express their own irrationality, often in response to underlying annoyance about their club’s performance?

“Research shows that people are drawn to conspiracy theories when one or more of their psychological needs are frustrated,” says Douglas. “The first of these needs is epistemic, related to the need to know the truth and have clarity and certainty. The other needs are existentialrelated to the need to feel safe and have some control over the things that happen around us, and social, related to the need to maintain our self-esteem and feel positive about the groups we belong to. People may be drawn to conspiracy theories to meet these needs.

“This essentially means that anyone can seek out conspiracy theories if he or she has psychological needs that are not being met at any given time. It may explain why we tend to see a lot of conspiracy theories when things happen like the sudden deaths of celebrities or during pandemics. People are looking for ways to understand what is going on and ways to deal with difficult situations: worry, fear, social isolation. Even a simple explanation is often not that attractive. People assume that a major event must also have a major or sinister cause. (Conspiracy theories) can turn people away from mainstream politics and science in favor of more radical ideas and actions.” Or away from the boring possibility that your team was to blame.

Certain conspiracy theories, experts say, may be based on facts or reality. Those facts are then exaggerated or distorted to the point where they spiral out of control. Football unfortunately does not have a reputation for being squeaky clean or free of corruption and as such it cannot always tell those who follow it that their paranoia is simply that. But there has rarely been a time when the simple statement has struggled more to be heard.

Take Leeds again. Firstly, there was a gypsy curse, believed to have been cast on Elland Road decades ago. Then, during the Don Revie era of the 1960s and 1970s, there were claims and counterclaims about crooked referees, alleged bribes, and southern media that resented their success and tried to prevent it. On and on until last month, when the FA Cup draw sent Leeds to Peterborough United, their 13th away match in a row. The chance of that? Not far from 9,000 to one, as my father – a mathematician by profession – tells me. But as someone recently told me, there is no conspiracy here. It’s just very, very Leeds.

(Top photos: Getty; Richard Sellers/Allstar, Shaun Botterill, Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA; design: John Bradford)