Greek leader claims ‘political earthquake’ as his party leads elections

The ruling party of Greece’s conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was well ahead of the opposition in Sunday’s general election, but failed to secure the outright majority needed to secure another term. rule out horse-trading to form a coalition government.

Mr Mitsotakis described the preliminary outcome as a “political earthquake” that required an “experienced hand on the helm” from Greece, saying that all negotiations with difficult potential coalition partners would only lead to a dead end.

Of 85 percent of the votes counted on Sunday evening and his party, New Democracy, which leads the opposition Syriza by 20 percentage points, Mr Mitsotakis greeted a crowd of cheering supporters outside his party’s office in Athens.

“We have kept the country afloat and we have laid the foundations for a better nation,” he said. “We will fight the next battle together so that in the next elections what we have already decided will be realized, an autonomous New Democracy.”

New Democracy won 40.8 percent of the vote on Sunday night, preliminary results showed, after calling on Greeks to choose economic and political stability over “chaos” in a tense campaign. The centre-left Syriza party, led by Alexis Tsipras, under whose tenure Greece was on the verge of leaving the eurozone in 2015, landed second, with 20 percent of the vote. The socialist PASOK party took third place, gaining 11.6 percent after a fierce campaign against both main parties.

Mr Tsipras said in a statement that he had called to congratulate Mr Mitsotakis on his victory, and that his party would meet to discuss the result as a runoff election seemed almost certain.

On Monday, if the final result is clear, the leading party will be given a mandate to try and form a government. But it seemed strongly that the prime minister will not explore that option, leading to new elections, most likely in June or early July. That vote would be held under a different system, which awards bonus seats to the winning party, giving New Democracy a better chance of forming an independent government.

New Democracy appeared on track to win 146 seats in the 300-seat parliament, with 71 seats for Syriza, preliminary results showed. Syriza’s poor performance led to speculation in the Greek news media about the future of the centre-left party.

“It reflects the utter collapse of Syriza’s strategy, the continued drift to the right, a hegemonic position on the left that exacerbated confusion and demoralization,” said Seraphim Seferiades, an associate professor of politics and history at Panteion University in Athens.

He also noted the high abstention in the vote, over 40 percent: turnout was 60 percent, preliminary results showed.

The absence of an outright winner was expected, as the elections were held under a system of simple proportional representation, making it difficult for a single party to take power.

Three factors contributed to the ambiguity: one in ten undecided voters; the approximately 440,000 young people who were allowed to vote for the first time; and the 3 percent of the electorate who had supported a party founded by the imprisoned spokesman for the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, who had been barred from participating.

In his campaign speech in Athens on Friday evening, Mr Mitsotakis pointed to his government’s success in increasing growth (now twice the eurozone average), attracting investment and strengthening the country’s defenses amid a difficult period with neighboring Turkey.

“Now is not the time for experiments that go nowhere,” he said, adding that getting an investment-grade rating, which would allow Greece to lower its borrowing costs, requires a stable government.

Mr Mitsotakis was also unapologetic about Greece’s tough stance on migration, which includes tightened border controls and has led to a 90 percent drop in migrant arrivals since 2015. While his government has come under fire from human rights groups for illegally driving migrants back to the sea and creating camps with prison-like conditions, many Greeks have welcomed the reduced influx. Migrants overwhelmed Greece’s resources at the height of Europe’s migration crisis.

“Greece has borders and those borders must be guarded,” Mitsotakis told a crowd of cheering supporters waving Greek flags on Friday.

Mr. Tsipras, for his part, had been campaigning for change. He highlighted an alleged abuse of power by the current administration, including a wiretapping scandal, and drew attention to the rising cost of living, which polls say is the top concern of most voters.

Before casting his vote on Sunday, Tsipras called on Greeks to “get behind an arrogant government that does not feel the needs of many”.

His message was convincing to Elisavet Dimou, 17, who voted for the first time on Sunday at a school in central Athens. She said she was influenced by Syriza’s promise of “change” and “justice.”

“Syriza also made mistakes, but they didn’t spy on half the country,” she said, referring to reports that the wiretapping scandal had rocked dozens of politicians, journalists and entrepreneurs.

Another factor in her choice of Syriza was the fatal train crash in central Greece in February that killed 57 people, many of them students. “They had their whole lives ahead of them, and they died because those in power didn’t care enough to fix the trains,” she said.

Public outcry over the crash briefly eroded New Democracy’s lead in polls, but it rose again as supporters were apparently comforted by promises of continued stability and prosperity.

One supporter, Sakis Farantakis, a 54-year-old hair salon owner, said: “They are far from perfect, but it is the only safe choice. We have moved on; why go back to uncertainty?”

Mr Mitsotakis has argued that a one-party government is preferable to a coalition deal to ensure stability and reassure investors. Greece’s economic growth has gained a foothold after a decade-long financial crisis that ended in 2018.

He has little mate choice. The Socialist Pasok Party was considered the only realistic candidate for a coalition with New Democracy. But Mr Mitsotakis’ admission last year that the Greek state surveillance agency had spied on Pasok leader Nikos Androulakis strained ties between the men and cast a shadow over prospects for cooperation.

A government led by the left would have been another possibility. Syriza had courted Pasok for a coalition that would most likely need a third party, most likely Mera25. That party is led by Yanis Varoufakis, Mr Tsipras’s former finance minister.

Mr Androulakis had kept his intentions unclear by stating that both sides were untrustworthy and that neither Mr Mitsotakis nor Mr Tsipras should lead a coalition government. Mr. Androulakis called late on Sunday to congratulate Mr. Mitsotakis.