Guatemala elects a new president: what you need to know

Guatemala, the largest country in Central America, will vote on Sunday in presidential elections that will examine the erosion of the rule of law in a country that has become a major source of migration to the United States.

Guatemala’s nascent democracy — which emerged nearly four decades ago after the end of a civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead or missing, one of the bloodiest in recent Latin American history — has frayed in recent years under an increasingly authoritarian government.

The judiciary has been armed and has forced dozens of prosecutors and judges engaged in anti-corruption into exile. Press freedom has also come under attack and this month the publisher of a leading newspaper who exposed many cases of bribery was sentenced to six years in prison after being convicted of financial crimes.

The electoral authority in Guatemala, a country of 18 million, has raised concerns about attacks on democratic standards after it excluded several top presidential candidates seen as a threat to the political and economic establishment.

Tensions over Guatemala’s shaky democracy have left some voters disillusioned and questioning whether they should even bother voting.

“I don’t think there should even be an election,” said Óscar Guillén, 70, who explained that he planned to leave his ballot blank to express his disillusionment.

Voters will still choose from a crowded field of more than 20 candidates, not one of whom is expected to win a majority on Sunday, which would force a runoff on Aug. 20 between the top two finishers.

Run-offs have become common in Guatemala since peace accords in 1996 ended an internal conflict that lasted 36 years and was characterized by brutal anti-insurgency tactics that resulted in genocide against indigenous peoples.

Guatemala’s current president, Alejandro Giammattei, has been barred from re-election by law. But while a surge in violent crime and a punitively high cost of living have made Mr Giammattei, a conservative, deeply unpopular, the leading candidates in the race are also generally conservative, suggesting continuity with the country’s political establishment. .

Voting is not compulsory in Guatemala, and the abstention rate, which reached nearly 40 percent in the last presidential election in 2019, will be closely watched as a gauge of voter dissatisfaction.

Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s vote.

Who’s running?

Of the three leading candidates, none are predicted to secure anything close to the majority needed to win outright on Sunday. In several polls, Sandra Torres, a former first lady, turned out to be the top candidate, but with support levels hovering around 20 percent. (Mr Giammattei’s party presidential candidate is leading in the polls by low single digits.)

Ms Torres, 67, was married to Álvaro Colom, who served as President of Guatemala from 2008 to 2012 and died this year at the age of 71. They divorced in 2011, when Ms. Torres first attempted to run for president, trying to pass a law that would prohibit family members of a president from running for office.

She was still banned from running that year, but was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections. After the 2019 election, she was charged with campaign finance violations and placed under house arrest.

Ms Torres triumphed in that case late last year when a judge ruled there was not enough evidence to go to trial, allowing her to walk again. During her campaign, she has received support from her party, National Unity of Hope, which is well established and widely known in Guatemala.

Ms Torres, like her two main rivals, has expressed her admiration for the government’s crackdown on gangs in neighboring El Salvador, which has helped reduce violence but also raised concerns about human rights violations.

She has also pledged to transfer more money and provide food aid to poor families, building on her time as first lady when she was the face of such popular initiatives.

Another major challenger, Zury Ríos, 55, is also a well-known figure in Guatemalan politics. She is the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt, a dictator in the early 1980s who was convicted of genocide in 2013 for attempting to wipe out the Ixil, a Maya people.

While the evidence against her father was meticulously documented and detailed at his trial, Ms. Ríos has claimed repeatedly that a genocide never took place. Her ultra-conservative party is led by figures associated with her father.

While Ms. Ríos promotes her conservative credentials and evangelical Christian beliefs, she has a more nuanced record as a former member of Congress as she forged alliances in an effort to win legislative approval for bills aimed at improving conditions for women and LGTBQ people.

Another leading presidential candidate is Edmond Mulet, 72, a lawyer and seasoned former diplomat who has served as Guatemala’s ambassador to the United States and the European Union, as well as the head of the United Nations’ stabilization mission in Haiti.

While Mr. Mulet has emphasized his diplomatic experience, he is also known for his work as a lawyer in the 1980s, when he was arrested in connection with his work arranging the adoption of Guatemalan children by Canadian families.

Although he was quickly released and Mr. Mulet has denied any wrongdoing, he still spent time on the campaign trail explaining his involvement in the episode.

In his campaign, Mr. Mulet represents a newly formed party with no seats in Congress, but which has forged a competitive coalition of candidates at the national and local levels in Sunday’s election. His proposals include a universal pension, an increase in police salaries and the construction of a new maximum security prison.

What are the main issues?

Corruption: Guatemala has garnered much acclaim over the past decade for its efforts to curb impunity and graft. But that initiative, led by a UN-backed panel of international researchers, has been systematically dismantled in recent years as entrenched political and economic interests began to pursue anti-corruption judges and prosecutors from the country.

The exclusion of top candidates from the election reflects, say civil liberties groups, how elite figures are steadily reasserting their power.

Migration: Guatemalans are among the fastest growing migrant groups in the United States. The number of people arriving annually increased by about 33 percent between 2010 and 2021, from 830,000 to more than 1.1 million.

Several factors drive Guatemalans to emigrate, most notably a lack of economic opportunity, with about 59 percent of the population living below the poverty line.

The United States made fighting corruption and strengthening democracy in Guatemala and other Central American countries a priority early in President Biden’s term, arguing that it would deter people from leaving their home countries.

But those efforts have done little to prevent a slump in democracy in the region or put a major dent in the migrant flow.

Crime: A major theme during the campaign season in Guatemala has been calls to replicate the crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, pointing to increasing frustration over high levels of violent crime.

The murder rate in Guatemala – fueled in part by powerful gangs – climbed almost 6 percent in 2022 from the previous year, and there has also been a sharp increase in the number of murder victims who showed signs of torture. Many Guatemalans cite the fear of extortion and crime as reasons to emigrate.