Much of the Houthis' offensive capabilities remain intact after US-led airstrikes
The US-led airstrikes on Thursday and Friday against locations in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia damaged or destroyed about 90 percent of the targets hit, but the group retained about three-quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones on ships sailing through the border. Red Sea, two US officials said on Saturday.
The damage estimates are the first detailed assessments of attacks by U.S. and British attack planes and warships on nearly 30 locations in Yemen, and they reveal the serious challenges the Biden administration and its allies face in trying to deter the Iran-backed Houthis by taking retaliatory measures, securing crucial shipping routes between Europe and Asia and containing the spread of regional conflicts.
A top U.S. officer, Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, director of the Army's Joint Staff, said Friday that the strikes had achieved their goal of damaging the Houthis' ability to carry out the kind of complex drone and missile attacks they had carried out. on Tuesday.
But the two U.S. officials warned Saturday that even after hitting more than 60 missile and drone targets with more than 150 precision-guided munitions, the strikes had damaged or destroyed only about 20 to 30 percent of the Houthis' offensive capabilities, much of which part is mounted on mobile platforms and can be easily moved or hidden.
The two U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal military assessments.
Finding Houthi targets is proving to be more challenging than expected. U.S. and other Western intelligence agencies have not spent much time or resources in recent years collecting data on the location of Houthi air defenses, command centers, ammunition depots and storage and production facilities for drones and missiles, the officials said.
That all changed after the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 and the Israeli army's subsequent ground campaign in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis have attacked commercial ships sailing through the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza and have said they will continue until Israel withdraws. U.S. analysts are rushing every day to catch up and catalog more potential Houthi targets, the officials said.
Thursday night's air and naval fire illustrated this approach, military officials said. The first wave of US-led strikes hit 60 pre-planned targets in 16 locations with more than 100 precision-guided bombs and missiles. About 30 to 60 minutes afterward, a second wave of attacks was launched against another twelve targets that analysts had determined to pose a threat to aircraft and ships.
Hitting pop-up targets at short notice, a practice the military calls dynamic targeting, would likely be a key part of any additional strikes President Biden might order, one of the U.S. officials said.
A senior Defense Department official said Saturday that a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile attack on a radar facility in Yemen on Friday was a “re-attack” of a target originally struck in Thursday's barrage and which had not been sufficiently degraded or destroyed .
Other U.S. military officials said that as analysts review the damage from Thursday night's airstrikes, more restrikes may occur.
Despite their fiery rhetoric and promises of retaliation, the Houthis' military response to Thursday night's attack has so far been muted, with only a single anti-ship missile firing harmlessly into the Red Sea, far from any passing ship, General Sims said on Friday.
But the general and the two U.S. officials said Saturday they were bracing for an attack from the Houthis once they determined how much firepower they had left and formulated an attack plan.
One of the two U.S. officials said the Houthis appeared to be internally divided over how to respond.
“I would expect that they would attempt some form of retaliation,” General Sims said Friday, adding that that would be a mistake. “We just won't let ourselves be bothered here.”