A popular leader's surprising turn overshadows Indonesia's elections

More than 100 million people will vote on Wednesday in one of the largest elections in the world. The battle for the grand prize – the presidency of Indonesia – is a three-way race.

But lurking is someone who isn't on the ballot.

That person is Joko Widodo, the incumbent president, who will not be allowed to seek a third five-year term and will step down in October. Ten years after Mr. Joko presented himself as a hard-nosed reformer and won office, he remains incredibly popular.

Many of his supporters say he has largely delivered on his promise to put Indonesia on track to become a rich country in the coming decades, with ambitious infrastructure and welfare projects such as the plan to build a new capital and a universal healthcare system.

At the same time, Mr. Joko has also overseen what critics describe as the decline in civil liberties. He has stripped the powers of an anti-corruption agency, rammed through a controversial labor law and, most recently, appears to have secured the placement of one of his sons on the ballot for vice president.

Making matters worse, critics say, is the presidential candidate he appears to be backing: Prabowo Subianto, a former general who was once a rival of Mr. Joko and who is accused of committing human rights abuses when Indonesia was a dictatorship. Mr Prabowo, whose running mate is Mr Joko's son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, was ahead in the polls.

Mr. Joko's implicit maneuvering has sparked profundity among many Indonesians.

“People are now asking, 'How much should we sacrifice for development?'” said Yohanes Sulaiman, a lecturer specializing in Indonesian politics at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani in the city of Bandung.

Critics say the fate of a young democracy that is now the third largest in the world is at stake in these elections.

Many Indonesians fear that a victory by Mr Prabowo – who led a crackdown on activists in Indonesia and what is now East Timor – could send the country back to its authoritarian past. Many remember the brutal, kleptocratic rule of Prabowo's former father-in-law and boss, dictator Suharto.

“The future is bleak, very bleak,” said Butet Kartaredjasa, 64, an artist from the city of Yogyakarta. He said that if Mr Prabowo were to win and face protests, ordinary people would become victims of the ensuing violence.

The elections in Indonesia are important far beyond its borders. The country is the fourth most populous country in the world and is of growing strategic importance to both the United States and China. As one of the world's largest producers of coal, palm oil and nickel, the country is at the top of the supply chains of many international companies and will have a major impact on the future of the climate change crisis.

Indonesia is the world's third-largest democracy and a major outlier in a region where the will of the people is often ignored. Although democracy is widely regarded as imperfect here, many Indonesians have embraced it as a way of life. The elections of the past thirty years are considered free and fair, and no one wants a return to the days of Suharto.

Although Mr. Prabowo had led the three-way race, some polls suggested he would be forced into a runoff in June, either against Anies Baswedan, a former governor of Jakarta, or Ganjar Pranowo, who governed Central Java. Their platforms are not significantly different, experts say, but Mr. Prabowo's strongman stands out bona fide.

Much of the support from Mr. Joko shifted to Mr. Prabowo, 72, who pledged to support Mr. Joko tried to transform himself into a gemoy, or cuddly grandfather.

“I support Prabowo now because of Jokowi,” said Rizki Safitri, 36, a voter from Jakarta, referring to Mr Joko by his nickname. “I want to ensure that Jokowi's good programs are continued and made even better.”

Mr. Joko's co-optation of Mr. Prabowo began a few years ago, when the president appointed his former election rival as his defense minister.

“For our friends in the US, it is as if Obama has suddenly decided to support Trump while still supporting a Democratic program,” said Andi Widjajanto, who resigned as a strategist for Mr. Joko in October to work for Mr. Ganjar , one of the other presidential candidates.

It is far from clear what Mr. Joko's influence on Indonesian politics will be after he leaves office or if Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Joko's son, Mr. Gibran, win. A vice president does not have much power in Indonesia, but can take the top position if a president dies.

“I don't expect Prabowo to let Jokowi exert too much influence,” said Natalie Sambhi, executive director of Verve Research, which studies the relationship between militaries and societies. “Now the question arises: what will happen if Prabowo starts taking Indonesia in a different direction than Jokowi's vision?”

Mr Gibran's collaboration with Mr Prabowo has left many of Mr Joko's allies baffled. Many could not understand why a man who benefited from direct democracy now has dynastic desires. But they now recognize that Mr. Joko started the ball rolling years ago.

His son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, the mayor of Medan, is running for governor of North Sumatra. In October, Mr.'s youngest child closed. Joko, Kaesang Pangarep, 28, joins the youth-oriented Indonesian Solidarity Party. Within two days he became chairman.

Mr. Jokowi “used to be the hope of the people; he is now no longer a leader, but a ruler, an official who builds dynastic politics,” said Maria Sumarsih, 71. Ms. Maria's son was killed by security forces in November 1998 during a student protest against Suharto at his university.

Last year, Mr. Joko's brother-in-law cast the deciding vote in the Constitutional Court's decision to lower the age of vice-presidential candidates, allowing Mr. Gibran, 36, to enter the race. An uproar followed, but Mr. Joko doubled down in recent weeks, saying that “a president is allowed to support candidates and take sides.” The message was unmistakable to many. At his side was Mr. Prabowo.

His statement sparked fresh outrage, prompting Mr Joko to appear on YouTube holding up a poster and referencing passages from the 2017 General Elections Law that say presidents can participate in campaigns. “Don't interpret it differently,” he said.

But legal experts said Mr Joko was selectively citing the law, which also requires him to take leave if he wants to campaign.

Todung Mulya Lubis, who campaigned for Mr Joko a decade ago and served as Indonesia's ambassador to Norway, said “enjoying power with all its consequences” was likely something that had changed his former boss.

“He may continue his power by proxy,” said Mr Todung, who is advising Mr Ganjar's legal team. But he added: “As leader of this pluralistic country, he must understand that democracy limits his power.”