A high-stakes inflation report for Washington and Wall Street

What to look for in Tuesday’s inflation rate

Markets have recovered from their fall – with the S&P 500 up more than 7 percent in the past two weeks – as investors become more optimistic that the Fed is done raising rates.

That belief will be put to the test this week with a new round of inflation data, starting with Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It arrives in the middle deep divisions on Wall Street over the Fed’s next move, and as inflation weighs heavily on President Biden’s polls.

Tuesday’s figure could indicate that progress on inflation is slowing. The closely watched key figures for October, which exclude food and fuel costs, are expected to show this a gain of 4.1 percent on an annual basis. That’s no better than September’s figure, and well above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

There may be more positive news in the main figure. The total number is expected to have fallen to 3.3 percent, a significant improvement from September levels. That would be due to a drop in energy prices (with gasoline prices falling for seven consecutive weeks, according to a Deutsche Bank research note), cheaper airfares and a slowdown in hiring and wage increases.

The Fed’s interest rate plans remain an open question. Rates are expected to remain stable at the open market committee meeting next month. But central bank chairman Jay Powell reiterated last week that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out as long as inflation remains high.

That uncertainty puts more weight on the CPI release, as well as Wednesday’s Producer Price Index and retail sales, according to analysts.

Some on Wall Street are already predicting interest rate cuts. Many investment banks see core inflation falling, giving the Fed flexibility to cut borrowing costs next year. “The hard part of the inflation battle now appears to be over,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, wrote to clients on Sunday, adding that he saw rates starting to fall in late 2024. Economists at UBS and Morgan Stanley see the central bank cutting financing costs even faster.

But these bullish calls come even as few on Wall Street see core inflation falling to the Fed’s target before 2025.

Consumers have a bleaker picture. The The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report Last week it emerged that households are still concerned about inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

The Supreme Court has adopted a code of ethics. The decision comes after revelations of secret gifts including luxury trips given to Judge Clarence Thomas by wealthy donors. Creating the code is seen as one compromise brokered by Chief Justice John Robertsbut critics note that it is unclear how this will be enforced.

The White House is delaying plans for its Asia-Pacific trade deal amid Democratic opposition. The Biden administration will not announce that it has largely finalized the terms of its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity after facing criticism from Democratic lawmakers over worker protections, The Times reports. Officials planned to introduce the pact this week at an international meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in San Francisco.

Donald Trump’s social media company reports major losses. Truth Social said in a regulatory filing that this was the case lost $73 million since it came into use last year. The former president’s social network also warned it could be forced to close if it fails to complete its merger with a blank-check financial vehicle intended to take it public.

A Starbucks employee union plans to strike. Starbucks Workers United, which says it represents more than 9,000 baristas in more than 360 stores, will Organize a strike on Thursday, which coincided with the coffee chain’s annual Red Cup Day promotion. It’s the latest clash over efforts to organize Starbucks workers; the union has failed to reach a collective bargaining agreement with management.

Legal groups are urging companies to tackle Islamophobia

The war between Israel and Hamas has prompted business leaders and Wall Street to speak out against anti-Semitism in business and universities, and some law firms have withdrawn job offers to students they say are associated with inflammatory language.

Now a coalition of Islamic bar associations has accused the same law firms of failing to stand up to rising Islamophobia.

The groups say law firms are restricting freedom of expression. The American Muslim Bar Association, the National Association of Muslim Lawyers and a dozen Muslim and South Asian law organizations said in a letter to 100 leading law firms on Monday that the firms were contributing to an “environment of Islamophobia and anti-Arab sentiment.” .”

Among other objections, the groups said a Nov. 1 letter the firms sent to law schools about anti-Semitism on campuses contained only a “brief reference to Islamophobia,” even as hate crimes against Muslims, including Arabs, are on the rise.

They say the approach creates a “hostile” workplace. “The unequal treatment of this highly sensitive issue by some companies unfortunately dehumanizes the lives of Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims, creating a workplace that is less inclusive, less welcoming and more hostile,” the bars wrote.

Some companies have refused to acknowledge Palestinian civilian losses or humanitarian causes while standing up for Israel, and employees fear professional retaliation if they disagree. The groups want the companies to join them in a new letter to law school deans on Islamophobia.

The letter reflects a growing divide between public and private organizations. Allegedly a commodity trading house dismissed an analyst after he was filmed covering posters of Israeli hostages in Gaza. Some Democratic aides in Congress are breaking with their bosses over the conflict and calling for a ceasefire.

At Google, known for its open culture and allowing activism, Arab and Muslim employees say they face hostility for speaking out in support of Palestinians, while Israeli and Jewish employees say they are angry about the messages on internal channels.

A failed attempt to inject some basketball into the PGA Tour

As the PGA Tour and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, LIV Golf’s backer, work to complete a landmark deal before December 31, the name of a prominent sports executive has come up in their talks.

Potential investors looking to take a stake in the potential new golf giant that could emerge from these talks have contacted Adam Silver, the NBA commissioner, to oversee it, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch reports. He is not interested, but the move reflects the scale of the ambitions for the sports sector.

The state of affairs: Suitors have submitted their offers to the PGA Tour, including proposals that would replace or invest alongside Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

There is one bidder Fenway Sports Groupowner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC (Jay Monahan, the PGA Tour commissioner, is a Fenway alumnus.)

Media play a major role in these plans, as investors bet on major broadcasters and tech companies’ zeal for live programming to boost the valuation of sports leagues. The PGA Tour signed a nine-year TV deal with CBS Sports, NBC Sports and ESPN in 2020, and industry executives expect companies like Amazon, Apple and YouTube to compete for the next deal.

This was the context for the effort to recruit Silver, who was praised for his handling of NBA streaming rights.

What’s next: The PGA Tour board met Monday at its headquarters in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The meeting came months after Tiger Woods joined as director, following player unrest over the way the PGA Tour-Saudi talks were unfolding.

Andrew will interview Monahan at the DealBook Summit on November 29, along with Elon Musk of SpaceX, Tesla and X, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and others. You can apply here to attend.

$150 billion

— The estimated annual amount costs to the American economy of extreme weather events caused by climate change, according to the latest National Climate Assessment. The report comes as the Biden administration wants to do stricter air quality regulations which polluting industries say are too expensive.

Anti-corruption prosecutor joins Cooley

Rebekah Donaleski, a veteran federal prosecutor and head of the public corruption unit of the U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York, has joined the global law firm Cooley, The Times’ Benjamin Weiser writes for DealBook.

Donaleski oversaw the investigation and indictment of some of the most high-profile suspects in recent years. They include Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, who has been charged with bribery-related charges and has pleaded not guilty; Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein’s ex-girlfriend who was convicted of sex trafficking; and Michael Avenatti, Stormy Daniels’ former attorney who was convicted of fraud.

Donaleski will become a partner in Cooley’s white-collar defense and investigations practice group in New York. The firm, which is headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and has 19 offices across the United States, Asia and Europe, has become a home base for former heads of the Southern District’s Public Corruption Unit, such as Andrew Goldstein, who the head of the Cooley group, and another partner, Russell Capone.

Donaleski, 37, will focus on corporate and government investigations, crisis management and litigation. As Cooley’s core customer base of technology and life sciences companies faces increasing scrutiny and investigations, Goldstein said: “Rebekah, as we see it, is an essential linchpin in the continued growth of our New York office” and the firm’s ability to handle increasingly complex cases.

Donaleski said, “My experience as a government corruption chief – being innovative and creative in bringing cases – will really translate well into serving clients who face increasingly innovative regulatory enforcement actions.”

READING THE SPEED

Offers

• Glencore buys a 77 percent stake in Teck’s coal business for $6.9 billion, paving the way for the resources giant to expand its profitable but polluting thermal coal division. (Bloomberg)

• Creative Artists Agency and dealmaker Michael Klein create an investment bank focused on sports, media and entertainment. (WSJ)

Policy

The best of the rest

We want your feedback! Send your ideas and suggestions by email to dealbook@nytimes.com.