Giorgia Meloni strengthens her credentials in Europe

Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, was isolated and the sole supporter of a historic European Union fund for Ukraine worth billions. As pressure mounted on him last week on the eve of an EU emergency summit, he needed someone to talk to.

Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, who has long shared his hostility towards the EU, was that sympathetic ear.

For an hour, over drinks, Mr Orban argued that he was being treated unfairly by the EU because of his far-right politics. Ms Meloni, herself a far-right leader, told him she too had felt the prejudice. But, she said, rather than attacking the EU, she had tried in good faith to cooperate with it, according to a European official with knowledge of the discussion. That approach, she argued, forced the EU to involve her as well, and it ultimately came to fruition for her by agreeing that Italy had met requirements for releasing billions of euros in Covid relief funds.

Mr Orbán ultimately agreed to the deal with Ukraine. It was a big moment for Europe. But it was also a big moment for Ms Meloni – who cemented her credibility as someone who could play an influential role at the top of Europe's leaders.

When Ms Meloni became Italy's leader in October 2022, many in Brussels feared she would be a disruptive force. Instead, as Orban's episode showed, she has positioned herself as a far-right leader who can speak to people on the right. As Europe leans more and more to the right, this is a remedy that EU leaders may need more of in the coming years.

“She likes to act as a bridge,” said Roberto D'Alimonte, a political scientist at Luiss-Guido Carli University in Rome.

Mr D'Alimonte said Ms Meloni has “made a radical change”, from an anti-EU ideologue to a pragmatic pro-EU leader who understands that she “needs all the help she can get” from the European Union , with which they Italy is now inextricably intertwined.

But he said Ms Meloni was only moving the mainstream “to a certain extent”, and still had a vision for Europe that rebalanced power outside Brussels, and that she was seeking leverage in the upcoming European elections in June to do that make possible.

Yet Ms Meloni has in many ways reassured the European establishment. She has proven her position on the Ukraine issue, joining the United States and NATO and withdrawing Italy from China's massive economic expansion plan into Europe.

She has toned down her anti-EU vitriol and muted any talk of leaving the euro or breaking with the bloc, like some other far-right parties and leaders in a post-Brexit universe where the option has proven far less attractive. The AfD in Germany, from which Ms. Meloni says she is separated by “insurmountable distances' is a notable exception.

On other issues, such as migration, much of Europe has taken a harder line. She worked with the EU to make a deal with Tunisia to prevent migrants from coming. In recent days she hosted a summit of African leaders in Rome to both help find alternative energy sources for Europe and stop migration at the source.

Her burst of European activity does not appear to have damaged her reputation among other right-wing leaders, who are eager to show their wary voters that they too can play nice with the establishment.

Marine Le Pen, a far-right leader in France, has already toned down her support for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and her own anti-EU language ahead of new elections in 2027. Ms Meloni has cited the evolution of her position on Russia – that is, its distancing from Mr Putin – “interesting.”

Nicola Procaccini, a member of the European Parliament from Ms Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, said Europe's rightward tilt would only make Ms Meloni a more important center of gravity.

Mr Procaccini, co-chair of the group of right-wing parties in Brussels that Ms Meloni leads, said it also helped her that “among the major European countries, the Italian government is perhaps the most stable.”

Pointing out that Emmanuel Macron of France could not run for re-election, he argued that the left-wing German government “is very weak”, he said, and that the far-left government in Spain was “extremely weak”.

“So at the moment the Italian government is the most solid and this is an advantage,” he said.

Ms Meloni's growing footprint in Europe is rooted in strong support at home, which has only grown stronger since taking office in October 2022. She has consolidated support in the polls and influence within her own coalition.

The death of Silvio Berlusconi has taken away an erratic partner who sympathized with Mr Putin and enjoyed giving her headaches. Her other coalition partner, the once wildly popular Matteo Salvini, seems like yesterday's news as he struggles to gain support on the far-right margins, where Ms. Meloni is seen as an indigenous daughter.

Its left-wing opposition is in disarray. It argued that she is still the same far-right ideologue as ever – pointing to her proposal to make surrogacy a universal crime for Italians and to reform the constitution to give the prime minister more powers. But it has failed to gain traction with voters.

Experts have complained about the general incompetence of the ruling class around Ms Meloni, pointing to embarrassing missteps such as a windfall tax on the extra profits banks made from inflation, which was quickly reversed.

While noting that Ms. Meloni has done little in the way of real reforms, she has nevertheless, they say, proven pragmatic, provided stability and distanced herself from her populist and inflammatory rhetoric of the past.

Despite an ideological background that abhors globalization, Ms. Meloni has paid attention to international markets. After years of criticizing the EU leadership, she works closely with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

Ms. von der Leyen belongs to the European People's Party, a large group of more mainstream European conservatives. Ms Meloni instead leads the European Conservatives and Reformists, a rival group of far-right parties including Spain's far-right party Vox, and Poland's Law and Justice Party, both of which have suffered humiliating electoral defeats that highlight the limited appeal of a extreme right agenda.

Asked whether Mr Orban's party, which left the EPP after the European Commission cracked down on him, was considering joining Ms Meloni's group, Mr Procaccini said: “It is possible.” He added: “Meloni is one of the few people who can talk to Viktor Orban.”

The upcoming and important elections for the President of the Commission, in which Ms von der Leyen is expected to stand for re-election, will be an important benchmark for Europe's ideological orientation, but also for Ms Meloni's ambitions therein.

She did not support Ms von der Leyen in 2019, when she led a smaller and louder opposition party, but this time she has much to gain by working with the re-elected committee chair, and is widely expected to vote for: or does not stand in the way of Mrs von der Leyen's re-election.

In that case, Ms. Meloni will almost certainly nominate an Italian ally to the powerful committee, giving her more influence for Italy in Brussels, and more influence for herself.

Analysts say she is likely to emerge with more influence, especially if her support for Ms von der Leyen proves crucial.

With a more leading role in Europe, Mr. Procaccini said, Ms. Meloni would work to roll back the European Green Deal, a set of sustainable policies against climate change that she has called “climate fundamentalism” and which is sparking protests from farmers over worldwide. Europe.

She would continue to push for stricter border controls and want Europe to work together on major strategic issues, but would often stay out of national affairs.

“She will use sovereigntist rhetoric to rebalance power between the union and the member states, in favor of the states,” Mr. D'Alimonte said, “but not to the point of breaking up the union.”