LORD ASHCROFT: Many Biden voters doubt he can do the job now — let alone four years from now

With a tie at 40 percent, this poll points to a nerve-wracking race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But many feel the momentum is with Trump.

Next week, the former president is expected to wrap up the Republican nomination with a primary victory over Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina.

According to my poll, more voters expect him to return to the White House than Biden. There are good reasons to think they might be right.

Two-thirds of Americans believe their country is on the wrong track, including half of those who voted for Biden in 2020. About 58 percent disapprove of his job performance, and only 37 percent approve — worse numbers than Trump faced at the same stage of his presidency. They are also more pessimistic than optimistic about the prospects for the US economy.

When asked who they think would do better on the issues at stake, voters favor Trump because of wide margins on immigration and the border, defense, the economy, taxes, crime and the cost of living, and by smaller margins in US representation abroad. , standing up for everyday Americans and defending constitutional rights.

Next week, the former president is expected to wrap up the Republican nomination with a primary victory over Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina. Pictured: Lord Ashcroft

Biden is only leading on health care and the environment.

Unlike Biden, Trump is more popular than his party, and Republicans themselves are more positive about their man than Democrats are about the sitting president.

This gap in enthusiasm between the two parties – the 'intensity gap', as political scientists call it – is important. In a tense election in a divided country, convincing your people to make the effort to vote can mean the difference between victory and defeat.

This gap is not only visible in the numbers. In our focus groups in recent weeks, Democratic-leaning voters complained about the country as readily as Republicans, and no one said Biden had exceeded their expectations — if they had any at all.

For all the White House railing against Special Counsel Robert Hur's description of the president as “an older man with a bad memory” — issued this month after an investigation into Biden's handling of classified files — many of Biden's own voters have serious doubts indicates that he is in trouble. only requirement to do the job now, let alone still be doing it in four years.

They will talk at length about Trump's iniquities, but when you ask if they are committed to voting for Biden, they are remarkably reluctant to commit. No two elections are the same, but in this regard, listening to these voters was strangely reminiscent of the weeks leading up to Trump's 2016 victory.

Not that Trump's supporters love everything about him. They can see his shortcomings as clearly as anyone else. If they could find someone who could “do Trump without being Trump,” as they sometimes put it, they would gleefully nominate him (or her).

But of the candidates recently fielded, they believe only Trump promises action on the things they care about — whether it's border control, energy independence, deregulation, international trade or a move away from the identity politics they left drive – and has the track record and strength of personality to give them the confidence he can deliver.

“I would rather tolerate Trump's behavior than tolerate what we have now,” one woman told us. Although many dislike his clumsiness, the feeling that 'he cannot be controlled' is worth many votes.

Many are also spurred on by what they see as efforts by Democrats to deprive them of the opportunity to vote for Trump, either through the 91 charges he faces or the efforts in Colorado and Maine to remove him from the ballot (which makes even many of his opponents feel nauseous). Nearly two-thirds of voters told us there was probably some truth in the charges against Trump — but more Americans think the charges will boost rather than hinder his election chances.

If the election were happening now, you would have to rate Trump's chances. But with nine months to go, there is more than enough time for Biden to regain the initiative.

One potentially telling factor is that voters are more optimistic about the economy for themselves and their families than for the country as a whole. Gasoline prices are down, consumer confidence is increasing and the stock market is up.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump (pictured) are neck and neck in the race for the White House – but if they were to dump Biden, Democrats would beat the former president, a new poll shows

President Joe Biden (pictured) is leading alone on health care and the environment

Even if many aren't yet feeling the benefits in their pockets, there's still time for them to filter through them well before Election Day, especially if rates fall later in the year, as some analysts expect.

Moreover, the numbers suggest that while support for Trump is not exactly weak, there is plenty of potential for Biden to strengthen his position.

Trump leads among Hispanic voters, and among all voters under 35. This should be food for thought for those who argue that 'demography is destiny' and that a younger and more diverse electorate will inevitably put the liberal left in pole position.

Significantly, however, many say they would vote for a candidate other than Trump and Biden, or wouldn't vote, or don't know what they would do. The same goes for African American voters, among whom Biden has only a 55 to 22 percent lead, compared to his 75-point margin in 2020.

At the same time, the majority of 2020 Biden voters who only slightly disapprove of his performance in the White House still prefer him to Trump on most issues — but only half say they would vote to replace the Democrat re-elect. In all these groups, many will surely be convinced to return to Biden's fold as the prospect of a Trump recovery becomes increasingly real.

Just because it feels like 2016 again doesn't mean the same outcome is inevitable. For many voters wondering whether they can bring themselves to vote for Biden again, 2016 will be a cautionary tale.

That's why Biden is determined to make the election all about Trump — and why Trump will need the discipline to make it about the voters.

• Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. Full details of the investigation are available LordAshcroftPolls.com. Follow him on X or Facebook @LordAshcroft.