MLB trade qualities: Taking stock of the Yankees-Padres Juan Soto mega deal

By Tim Britton, Grant Brisbee and Stephen J. Nesbitt

The trade

Yankees get: Juan Soto, OF, Trent Grisham, OF

Padres get: Michael King, RHP; Drew Thorpe, RHP; Jhony Brito, RHP; Randy Vasquez, RHP; and Kyle Higashioka, C

Tim Britton: Any team would be better if it added Juan Soto. But perhaps no team needed Soto more than the Yankees.

That’s not just for narrative reasons – although in that regard, adding one of the sport’s best hitters does help counteract your worst season in three decades. But in 2023, only two teams saw worse production from their left-handed hitters than the Yankees. Perhaps it follows that only one team gave fewer at-bats to lefties than New York. What’s bad for any team is especially egregious for a team playing in a ballpark designed to accommodate left-handed sluggers.

The Yankees ranked 26th in the majors in OPS from their outfield, despite the presence of Aaron Judge. Remove him from the calculation and New York’s outfielders slashed .214/.276/.360 for a .636 OPS. So yes, even if it costs you a good pitching prospect and a promising big-league arm, you do what it takes to add Soto’s career .946 OPS to that group. Add to that his otherworldly outlook, the power that will play in the Bronx and the versatility he brings to a lineup that has become stable in recent years. It’s Juan Soto.

For San Diego, part of the trade for Soto when they did that was that they knew if things went wrong, they could always try to recoup some of the prospect’s cost by signing him before free agency. They got an NLCS gig from the trade and some legitimate talent back, but things have gone south financially. It’s hard to see the Soto trade as a positive.

Yankees rating: a
Padres Rank: c

Grant Brisbee: Juan Soto is on a Hall of Fame path. Check that out, he’s on his way to becoming an inner circle Hall of Famer, right there among the greatest of the greats. If you want to push that back, remember that guy just turned 25. Twenty-five years. Four players play who are 25 years or older MLB’s Top-100 Prospect List.

However, this is not just a curiosity. When you look at someone using free agency in the prime of a very special career, wouldn’t you want 10 months where you’re the only baseball team that can talk to him about an extension? This involves not only planting the seeds, but also watering them and placing them under a halogen lamp. People will groan because the Yankees are giving up a lot of talent for a one-year rental, especially when it comes to Major League production in 2024, but it’s not just that. It’s a test drive. See how hospitable Yankees fans are? See how perfectly the short veranda on the right helps you? Wouldn’t you like to hang around here for another fourteen years?

My only complaint about the Yankees going all-in on Soto is that it forces Aaron Judge into center field, which isn’t ideal for a big 30-something who suffers a toe injury, but that’s really more Alex Verdugo’s fault. Juan Soto is with the Yankees. That is something to celebrate.

Juan Soto is not on the Padres. I understand why, but that doesn’t mean it’s not depressing. They needed weapons to compensate for the many losses they suffered in the private sector, and they need to reduce labor costs because it turns out they were on the fence, and that wasn’t sustainable.

That doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck. They lose a guy who played 162 games for them last year and posted a .410 on-base percentage, .930 OPS and 158 OPS+. They need to replace pitchers, yes, but how do you replace that? They still have a lot of great players, but they were already below league average in points scored per game. Losing 162 games of base wizardry will be nearly impossible to catch up on.

Talent is coming back, to be clear. Michael King will assist immediately. Drew Thorpe looks like a fast mover. Randy Vásquez had a shiny ERA in the majors and a dusty FIP, and he struggled with his control in the minors, but he should help at some point in the near future.

There’s a lot of hope going the other way, though, so it’s hard to love from the Padres’ perspective.

Yankees: A+
Padres: C+

Stephen J Nesbitt: The last left-handed (or switch) hitters with a .400 OBP over a full season for the Yankees are Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. It’s been sixteen years since either of them last did this.

And the last Yankees lefties with a 140 OPS+ over a full season are Robinson Canó, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. It’s been ten years since any of them last did that.

Soto has never had a season below .400 OBP or 140 OPS+. Not in the main subjects. Not in the minors. Probably not as a sweet swinging child in Santo Domingo! In today’s game, Soto is in a league of his own as a hitter. Plus eye, plus contact, plus power. He has a World Series ring, a Home Run Derby trophy and a batting title, yet he looks most proud when he’s spitting on a ball inches from the plate. His expertise fits beautifully with the Yanks’ greatest needs. Soto will spray baseballs around Yankee Stadium in 2024 and park them on the short porch, joining forces with Judge to form a supreme one-two punch of strength and patience.

Grisham doesn’t move the needle offensively, but he gives the Yankees a fourth outfielder who can play center pending the return of Jasson Dominguez.

The next question, of course, is whether one season is all they will get together. If that’s it, the Yankees better make it count. Their first order of business is to strengthen the rest of the roster — starting with the rotation that just lost some depth in this trade — and then turn their attention to whether they can keep Soto in the Bronx long term.

For the Padres, the return is the return. It’s fine, if you’ve come to accept the position that the Padres need to move Soto and his projected $33 million salary as soon as possible. But it doesn’t surprise you. Michael King has looked really good at times, and even better lately, but he’s also 28, two years removed from free agency, and has yet to carry a full starter workload in the majors. A 2022 second-round pick, Thorpe is a promising prospect with significant upside as a starter. He’s coming off an excellent season – a 2.52 ERA between High A and Double A – and was named MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect of the Year. Still, the Padres aren’t bringing in can’t-miss guys here. The only thing that is certain is that the man is going the other way.

Before the trade, the Padres’ projected rotation in 2024 consisted of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and then a steep decline. Between King, Thorpe, Brito and Vazquez, they will patch up the back end of their rotation for next season and strengthen things for the future. That could work out just fine. But generally speaking, you’re not going to send in a Soto-sized bat and look like a winner.

Yankees: a
Padres: B-

(Top photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)