What you need to know about the NBA Draft Lottery
NBA fans are about to take a break from praying that a wild, unbalanced three-pointer goes in and instead pray that a certain envelope contains their favorite team’s logo.
The NBA lottery draw may seem like a strange spectacle, but it could affect the future of franchises for years to come. And this year it has a special meaning: the winner has the right to choose Victor Wembanyama from France, who is predicted to become a trailblazing superstar.
When and where is the lottery and how can I watch? The lottery is Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern in Chicago. ESPN will broadcast the event; you can also expect the news on social media soon as fans celebrate or lament the result.
Who’s taking part in this year’s raffle? The 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs are eligible; that includes the four teams that made it to the play-in games but failed to advance to the playoffs proper.
However, it’s a bit more complicated than that. Due to past trades, the Dallas Mavericks will give their pick to the Knicks unless it falls in the top 10, and the Chicago Bulls will give their pick to the Orlando Magic unless it is in the top four.
How does it work? A random draw is held to determine the top four draft picks, with weaker teams having better odds. Choices 5 through 14 are then assigned in reverse order of the teams’ records.
Who has the best chance of the number 1 choice? Each of the three weakest teams in the regular season — the Detroit Pistons, the Houston Rockets and the San Antonio Spurs — has a 14 percent chance of making the top pick.
Who else has a chance at number 1? The rest of the teams have smaller chances on a sliding scale, from the Charlotte Hornets at 13 percent to the New Orleans Pelicans, who had a regular season winning record and only have a 0.5 percent chance of being the top pick. The rest of the teams with a chance are the Blazers at 11 percent, Magic 9, Pacers 7, Wizards 7, Jazz 5, Mavericks 3, Bulls 2, Thunder 2, Raptors 1 (numbers rounded to the nearest percentage).
What about choices 15 through 30? Those are all done, starting with the playoff team with the worst record, the Hawks, at No. 15, and going pick by pick to the better teams.
Is what I see on TV the actual lottery? No. What you see is more of a ceremonial unveiling of the draft decision. The actual lottery is held just before that in front of a handful of league, team and news media witnesses locked in another room.
I read that the lottery is fixed. Is that true? No. Conspiracy theorists sometimes argue that the league sets the draw in favor of teams in major markets, most notably for the inaugural lottery in 1985 when the Knicks won and earned the right to choose Patrick Ewing.
There has never been any credible evidence that a draft lottery has indeed been established, and with no teams from New York or Los Angeles in the draw, it is hoped the conspiracy talks will be muted this year.
When and where is the actual design? June 22 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, for the ninth time in the past 10 years. (The exception was the pandemic year, when it was conducted via conference call.)
Who will be selected? Everyone expects Wembanyama to be number 1. Occasionally reported to be between 7 feet 2 inches and 7 feet 4, he has a wingspan of over eight feet that makes him a nightmare on defense. He is fast and can also score. He has averaged 22 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks this season in the French League for Metropolitans 92, a team based in Paris. He won’t turn 20 until January and should have a huge advantage.
Unusually, forecasters who put a lot of thought into the draft also begin to reach a consensus on Picks 2 through 4. Those seem likely to be guard Scoot Henderson, who averaged 17 points per game with the G League Ignite; forward Brandon Miller of the University of Alabama; and guard Amen Thompson, who played with the City Reapers of Overtime Elite.
But that could change depending on which team gets which pick, and stocks could rise and fall over the next month.
What about Purdue’s college player of the year, Zach Edey? Despite his excellent season, Edey is not highly regarded by NBA scouts. At 6ft 4 and bulky, he looks like a classic NBA center, but his inability to score from the outside doesn’t seem to suit the modern game. He could end up somewhere in the second round.
If my team gets the best pick, we’re done, right? Players like Tim Duncan, LeBron James and Anthony Davis all became number 1 and Wembanyama certainly looks the part.
But Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett and Ben Simmons all ended up being No. 1 as well, a humble reminder not to start counting championships just yet.