Netanyahu's Binding: Compromise in Gaza or Power at Home

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is fighting two parallel battles, one in Gaza and one at home – and neither is going according to plan.

In Gaza, Mr Netanyahu is leading a military campaign to defeat Hamas and free the remaining Israeli hostages captured in the October 7 attack on Israel. At home, he is fighting for both his short-term political survival and his long-term legacy.

He is having a hard time on both fronts.

More than a hundred hostages remain imprisoned in Gaza despite months of war and lengthy negotiations for their release. Hamas is battered but undefeated, and generals have said privately that despite destroying Gaza and killing more than 26,000 people, officials there say the war is nearing a stalemate. In Israel, polls show that the prime minister would easily lose an election if elections were held tomorrow. And after Netanyahu presided over a failed defense policy on October 7, the deadliest day in Israel's history, his legacy has been ruined.

His efforts to resolve these crises are at odds with each other, analysts said.

To burnish his legacy, he is pushing for a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia, a long-term strategic goal for Israel. However, Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations without an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution. And without greater cooperation from Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies, it will be more difficult for Israel to conclude the war in Gaza and plan for the territory's future.

But to retain power and maintain his right-wing coalition, he must reject the premise of a Palestinian state.

“We are reaching the end of the Netanyahu era, but he is not done yet,” said Mazal Mualem, a biographer of Netanyahu.

“Netanyahu has proven to have unparalleled skills in freeing himself from entanglements,” she added, “but this time he is in so deep that he may struggle to climb out.”

Mr. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is often described as a political magician capable of changing his political fortunes, even if that means taking new positions that contradict old ones. Given his long history of political survival, both his allies and critics say it is too early to predict the premature collapse of his government before its term is formally completed in 2026, let alone the end of his political career.

As opposition leader in 1996, he was twenty points behind in the polls and looked likely to lose the general election. Within five months, after running a campaign steeped in skepticism about the Oslo peace accords, he was elected prime minister. Once in power, however, Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to parts of the deal and ceded some territory to the Palestinians.

In 2017, he was investigated on corruption charges and later tried, leading many to predict his political downfall. The case is still ongoing, and despite losing many close allies and parts of his political base, he has managed to win four of the five subsequent elections. Even after effectively suspending a peace process with the Palestinians, he nonetheless struck landmark diplomatic deals in 2020 with three Arab states that had shunned Israel over the Palestinian issue.

“Believe me, Bibi is the champion,” said Yitzhak Goldknopf, a minister leading one of the parties in Netanyahu's coalition, using a nickname for the prime minister. “Netanyahu will complete his term.”

Such a prediction used to be a safe bet, but the war in Gaza has complicated matters for the prime minister. There is no obvious course of action that can end the war, satisfy Saudi Arabia and please the Israeli right.

In Gaza, Israeli generals fear that Netanyahu's two main objectives are mutually incompatible. Routing Hamas would most likely cost the lives of many hostages held in Hamas's underground fortress. Alternatively, a diplomatic deal to free the hostages would most likely give Hamas control of at least part of Gaza.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu's far-right coalition partner Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to quit the government if Netanyahu struck a deal with Hamas that freed the hostages but left the group in power.

Should Netanyahu lose the support of the far right, or willfully abandon it, he could team up with centrist leaders like former army chief Benny Gantz — or opposition leader Yair Lapid, who this week offered to support a hostage deal — and continue the hostage negotiations. An alliance with the center would also give him the political cover to allow a reconstituted Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to govern the parts of Gaza where Hamas has lost control.

That approach could undermine growing global condemnation of Israel, amid accusations – which Israel vehemently denies – that the country is committing a genocide in Gaza.

But, several allies and analysts said, such a move would anger his right-wing base — much of which wants Jewish Israelis to resettle Gaza — and boost right-wing rivals like Mr. Ben-Gvir.

Since the October 7 attack, popular support for a two-state solution has declined, according to polls. If elections are called, Netanyahu wants to focus the campaign on the issue of Palestinian statehood, allies and analysts said.

According to Nadav Shtrauchler, Netanyahu's former media strategist, the prime minister thinks he can regain some lost votes by presenting himself as the only leader with the conviction, experience and authority to resist American and Arab pressure for a to create a Palestinian state in Gaza. the West Bank.

“Netanyahu's narrative in the elections will be: where do we want to go?” said Mr. Shtrauchler.

“He'll say, 'Do you want someone who has the backbone to stand up to the United States and who doesn't want a two-state solution?'” Mr. Shtrauchler added. “Or do you want someone like Benny Gantz, who doesn't really say what he thinks about a Palestinian state?”

Netanyahu's public rejection of Palestinian sovereignty is at odds with what his envoys discuss with Saudi Arabia in back-channel talks mediated by the United States.

Mr. Netanyahu believes he can close the circle by convincing Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel in return for a nominal plan for a Palestinian state, according to a person involved in the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information. The plan, the person said, had so many get-out clauses that it would never happen.

Mr. Netanyahu is “trying to play a double game,” said Avigdor Liberman, a former key adviser to Mr. Netanyahu who now heads an opposition party.

“He is telling his own constituency: 'Don't worry, I will never agree to a Palestinian state,'” Mr. Liberman said. “And he says to Saudi Arabia: 'Don't worry, we will find a solution.'”

Mr Netanyahu declined to be interviewed for this article. In a statement, his office said he opposed full Palestinian sovereignty but believed a deal with Saudi Arabia was feasible, without explaining why.

“The prospects are good and the Prime Minister intends to commit himself to this,” the statement said about a deal with Saudi Arabia. 'The United States wants it. Saudi Arabia wants it and Israel wants it. There is a common desire for it.”

The statement said he had a clear strategy for Gaza and that it was possible to both defeat Hamas and rescue the hostages.

“The war is going better than many expected,” the statement said, adding that the Israeli army advanced faster than the US-led coalition in Mosul, Iraq, between 2016 and 2017.

“We are paying a high price,” the statement added. “But we are absolutely committed to achieving total victory.”

Still, his critics say the military's progress has been hampered by his government's failure to come up with a postwar plan. The sooner the war ends, the sooner Netanyahu must tackle tough questions about Gaza's governance that could jeopardize his grip on power — questions some think he is trying to avoid.

In January, three commanders told The New York Times that without a long-term vision for Gaza, the military would be unable to make short-term tactical decisions on how to capture the southernmost neighborhoods bordering Egypt. According to the commanders, such an operation would require more cooperation from Egypt, but the government is not prepared to go into the post-war plan without guarantees from Israel.

Netanyahu's allies reject the claim, arguing that the prime minister has avoided putting soldiers in unnecessary danger. If he seems indecisive, they say, it is because Israel has no easy options, not because his political motivations cloud his judgment.

“He wouldn't risk our soldiers for his own politics,” Mr. Shtrauchler said. “He is working toward the country's goals as he sees them.”

But opinion polls since October 7 show that the public has lost confidence in Netanyahu. On Tuesday, Israel's main private television station, Channel 12, released a poll showing that less than a quarter of Israelis preferred him to Mr. Gantz, his main rival.

“But even though the polls say he has no chance, he knows his situation can improve,” said Ms. Mualem, his biographer. “It's happened before and it could happen again.”

“This is Bibi – he never gives up,” she added. “This feeling is stronger than him.”

Nathan Odenheimer reporting contributed.