Collapse of the Dutch government highlights Europe’s new migration policy

The collapse of a Dutch coalition government over a proposed refugee policy has once again underlined the power of immigration as an arbiter of European politics and how preventing far-right parties from taking advantage of it is a growing problem for mainstream politicians.

The current crisis in the Netherlands was precipitated by conservative Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who resigned after his centrist coalition partners refused to support his tough new refugee policy.

Dutch media reported that Mr Rutte had proposed, among other things, a two-year waiting period before the children of recognized refugees living in the Netherlands could join their parents, a non-starter for his coalition partners.

For Mr Rutte, a deft switchboard operator known as “Teflon Mark” for his resilience during 13 years in power, holding the line on an issue many of his constituents care deeply about was a matter of political survival, say analysts, which went beyond the lifetime of this particular coalition.

More generally, his willingness to topple the government rather than compromise speaks of a new phase of European migration policy. Far-right parties that have gained strength recently have dominated the narrative on migration, playing on growing public fears about national identity, and Rutte’s push for an unusually tough policy seemed to prevent just that, analysts said.

And that deeper issue is set against the backdrop of a crisis in the cost of living, insecurity due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a growing number of asylum seekers and migrant tragedies at EU borders.

Over the past decade, centrist parties have tried to accommodate the hardline migration views of traditional conservative voters, while rallying to keep the far-right parties at bay. But as the collapse of the Dutch government seems to show, that strategy could run its course.

Mr. Rutte’s four-party coalition, with two smaller parties to his left, was already in trouble. The way he chose to end it resembled a controlled demolition.

“That the coalition collapsed on this issue is extremely surprising,” says Marcel Hanegraaff, associate professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam. But its collapse was hardly a shock, he added. “It just wasn’t a happy marriage.”

Rutte has said he will not form a government with far-right parties such as Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom, an anti-migration group that emerged almost 20 years ago in an earlier uprising against immigrants. Mr Wilders has had little electoral success, but his ideas found wider appeal and permeated mainstream politics following the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, when more than a million refugees sought safety in Europe.

On the European stage, Mr Rutte has emerged as a steadfast advocate for reducing migration to the European Union, playing a different role for himself than Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who has roots in the far right, or Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the conservative Greek leader who has overseen brutal border practices against migrants.

To emphasize his role in Europe and the growing importance of migration politics at home, Mr Rutte accompanied Ms Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on a recent visit to Tunisia, where the three offered the government $1 billion in financial aid and asked it to prevent migrants from coming to Europe.

Mr Rutte has also been a strong supporter of Europe-wide migration management tools, such as the European Union’s Joint Border Agency, aimed at keeping migrants away from Europe’s prosperous northern interior, where his country is located.

In a European context, the Netherlands hardly registers as a country with a serious migration problem. It is the fourth richest nation in the EU, but scores exactly on the EU average in the refugee population it receives. Nevertheless, the number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands has grown over the past year, in line with the general trend in Europe.

But Dutch analysts say a critical issue fueling migration fears is an affordable housing crisis, compounded by the idea that the country, with its growing population and sprawling agricultural sector, is running out of space.

Critics say the hard line advocated by Mr Rutte would have had limited impact, even if introduced. The number of refugees in the Netherlands who want to have family members with them is so small, says Mark Klaassen, assistant professor of immigration law at Leiden University, that it would not mean a significant decrease in the total number of refugees.

Mr. Klaassen says that Mr. Rutte, known as a consensus builder who was previously unwilling to use migration politics to his own advantage, seemed to be changing his position. “What is new is that with this development, migration law is being used to gain political advantage,” he added.

Mr Klaassen said Mr Rutte’s migration problems were partly due to his own government. The slow processing has exacerbated bottlenecks in the asylum procedure, Mr Klaassen said. And the lack of affordable housing has led recognized refugees to stay longer in processing centers as they struggle to find permanent homes, leading to overcrowding and inhumane living conditions.

Attje Kuiken, the leader of the Dutch Labor Party, one of two coalition members who objected to Rutte’s proposals, called the decision to drop the government on the issue irresponsible. Including the Dutch government.

“Rutte chose his own interests over those of the country, and I hope everyone sees that,” said Ms Kuiken in a Dutch talk show.

“We saw a completely different Mark Rutte,” says Jan Paternotte, the party chairman of the center party D66, one of the coalition parties that refused to support part of Rutte’s migration policy. He added that Mr Rutte refused to compromise on his proposals and questioned the real motives behind the persistence.

The collapse of the government delighted Mr Wilders, the right-wing leader, who agreed Twitter to say that the end would make the Netherlands “a beautiful country again, with fewer asylum seekers and crime, more money and housing for our own people”.

What happens next in Dutch politics is not yet clear, and Rutte could still try to form a new coalition government, although he may face the same range of coalition options. On Friday evening he tendered his resignation to the Dutch king and will remain as acting prime minister until new elections are held, probably in November.