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NFL Playoffs: Last 4 Teams' Odds to Win the Super Bowl, with Conference Title Game Analysis

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We're down to the final four. The top-seeded Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers will try to fend off challenges from the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs and the upstart Detroit Lions to reach Super Bowl LVIII.

Jeff Howe reviews the conference championship games before The Athletic's projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, 3:00 PM ET, Sunday

Quarterback Lamar Jackson was the best player on the field during the Ravens' 34-10 win against the Houston Texans, and when that happens, they'll be virtually unstoppable. The Ravens are 10-0 this season, including Saturday, when Jackson's passer rating is above 90, and that doesn't even consider his rushing prowess.

It's not all Jackson, though. Head coach John Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Todd Monken and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald were brilliant in their playoff opener. Monken's adjustments were excellent against the Texans' aggressive blitz packages, while Macdonald accomplished the rare feat of shutting down quarterback C.J. Stroud. It would be a surprise at this point if Macdonald doesn't get a head coaching job this cycle, and it's not unthinkable to think the Ravens could lose both coordinators.

While it seemed like the Ravens' year, they now have to defeat the reigning Super Bowl champions as the Chiefs continue to try to stake their claim as a modern dynasty. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off his first career playoff win on the road, and he'll have to do it again in his sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance.

Not only that, but the Chiefs simply played their best game of the season by a significant margin. The defense finished the game with three straight scoreless possessions, but that unit has been solid all season. Even more impressive, Mahomes and his supporting cast delivered in several key moments, making just one crucial mistake. If they play this well in Baltimore, the title game should be a thriller.

NFC

No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 3 Detroit Lions, 6:30 PM ET, Sunday

This match can be decided on the pitch, and the Lions will need to step up their efforts in that area. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who ranked last in rushing and yards per carry during the regular season, ran 15 times for 89 yards on Sunday in Detroit. That was a surprising performance against a Lions defense that ranked second in rushing yards and third in yards per carry.

The 49ers' ground game needs little introduction with superstar Christian McCaffrey, who was an MVP frontrunner for much of the season. If the Niners move the ball with McCaffrey, they can double the Bucs' rushing numbers.

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On the other hand, the Packers ran 28 times for 136 yards (4.9 yards per carry) against a 49ers defense that ranked 14th in allowing 4.1 yards per carry in the regular season. The Lions' two-pronged offense of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ranked fifth in yards and yards per carry.

There will understandably be a lot of focus on quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, but the identity of every offense is built on the ground. Purdy struggled against the Packers before his impressive game-winning drive, while Goff was efficient in both playoff victories. Both quarterbacks are difficult to defend if the offense stays on schedule, which is why the NFC Championship Game will likely be decided by the better team on the ground.

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(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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