US is looking for a way to keep troops in Niger

A senior Pentagon official sought Thursday to soften the impact of Niger’s recent decision to withdraw its military cooperation deal with the United States, which has upended the Biden administration’s security strategy in a volatile part of Africa.

If the announcement is completed Saturday by Niger’s military junta, it could force the withdrawal of 1,000 U.S. military personnel and contractors from a country that for years has been a linchpin of U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel region, an arid area south of the Sahara.

But in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Celeste A. Wallander, an assistant secretary of defense, told lawmakers Thursday that the junta’s ruling might not be as dire as initially thought, and that U.S. officials could find a way tried to find American troops to stay in the country.

“Niger’s self-proclaimed government has not asked or demanded that the U.S. military leave,” Ms. Wallander said. “There’s actually quite a mixed message. We are following this up and asking for clarification.”

Ms Wallander said the junta has ended formal military ties for the time being, but that “they have assured us that US forces are protected and that they will not take any action that would endanger them.”

Last week there was a high-level delegation of US officials, including Ms Wallander; Molly Phee, the State Department’s top Africa official; and Gen. Michael E. Langley, the head of the Pentagon’s Africa Command, traveled to Niger to meet with members of the military junta.

In meetings described as tense by Pentagon and State Department officials, the Americans raised serious concerns about the junta’s growing security ties with Russia, negotiations to give Iran access to Niger’s vast uranium reserves and the lack of a clear roadmap to restore democratic rule after the coup that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum last July.

“We made clear in Niger, including very recently, that we had some very real concerns in several areas and that we were concerned about the direction that Niger was taking,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said this week.

The junta stuck to the tone and content of the discussions, U.S. and Nigerien officials said, announcing its decision a few days after the U.S. officials left.

Niger’s rejection of military ties with the United States follows the withdrawal of French troops from the country. France, the former colonial power, has led foreign counter-terrorism efforts against jihadist groups in West Africa for the past decade but has lately been seen as a pariah in the region.

U.S. officials and Western analysts said it was unclear how determined the junta was to drive out the U.S. military presence, rather than use its ruling in negotiations to reap greater benefits from working with the Americans.

Ms. Wallander made the government’s position clear, telling lawmakers that “countries governed by military juntas are not reliable security partners.” She added that “part of the value proposition for us who have access to Niger would be a return to democratic civilian rule in Niger.”

Many of the Americans deployed to Niger are stationed at US Air Base 201, a six-year-old, $110 million installation in the country’s northern desert. But since the coup, troops there have been largely inactive, with most drones grounded except to carry out surveillance missions to help protect Americans.

Due to the coup, the United States suspended security operations and development assistance to Niger.

U.S. officials say they have tried for months to salvage relations with the junta and change its course. However, the Pentagon has planned for the worst contingencies if the talks fail. The Defense Ministry has spoken with several West African coastal countries about establishing new drone bases as a backup to the landlocked base in Niger. The talks are still in their early stages, officials say.

US security analysts said a final decision by the junta to withdraw from the agreement would be particularly damaging after a wave of other coups in the region, including in Mali and Burkina Faso, and because of the growing influence of Russia and China on the continent .

“It’s a total mess for the United States,” said Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consultancy based in New York. “I am concerned that the end of any U.S. assistance to Niger will not only open the door to Russia and the rebranded Wagner forces operating under the banner of the Africa Corps, but also exacerbate the challenge of counterterrorism at a time when Al Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated allies. have become a formidable regional threat.”

Mr Clarke added that JNIM, Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel, “has expanded significantly, not only in terms of manpower, but also in the overall size of the territory in which the group now operates.”

He said that while some U.S. Army Green Berets are training local troops in West African coastal countries such as Benin, “the lack of U.S. presence, coupled with weak governance and porous borders, has given jihadists a free hand to continue expanding.”