What you need to know about the elections in Pakistan

Pakistan goes to the polls on Thursday in an election that analysts say will be among the least credible in the country's 76-year history and comes at a particularly turbulent time for the country.

The military has ruled directly for almost half of Pakistan's existence. Even under civilian governments, military leaders have wielded enormous power, bringing in the politicians they elected and expelling those who stepped out of line.

This will be only the third democratic transition between civilian governments in Pakistan's history. And it is the first national election since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from power in a vote of no confidence in 2022. Mr Khan's ouster – which he accused the military of orchestrating, though powerful generals deny it – sparked a political crisis. crisis that the nuclear-weapon country has been embroiled in over the past two years.

Thursday's vote marks the culmination of a particularly contentious campaign season, in which analysts say the military has sought to undermine Khan's broad support and pave the way to victory for the party of his rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Here's what you need to know.

How was the campaign?

Over the past two years, Pakistanis have come out en masse to protest the behind-the-scenes role they believe the military played in Khan's ouster. The generals have responded forcefully, arresting Mr Khan's allies and supporters and crippling his party before the election.

While the military has often interfered in elections to clear the way for its favored candidates, analysts say this crackdown is more visible and widespread than others.

That has also made this perhaps the most muted election in Pakistan in decades. Streets that would normally be filled with political rallies have remained empty. For weeks, many people were convinced that the elections would not even take place on the scheduled date. A common refrain among Pakistanis is that this is a “selection” – not an election – because many feel it is clear that the military has predetermined the winner.

Who's running?

About 128 million voters will be able to cast their votes for a new parliament, which will elect a new prime minister after the elections.

There are 266 seats to be filled in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, with a further 70 seats reserved for women and minorities. If no party wins an outright majority – which is considered very likely – the one with the largest share of parliamentary seats can form a coalition government.

Three major parties dominate politics in Pakistan: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Mr Khan, the PTI leader, has been conspicuously absent from the campaign: he was arrested in August and has since been sentenced to multiple prison terms for a variety of offenses and banned from holding public office for 10 years. His party's candidates say they have been arrested, forced to denounce the party and subjected to campaigns of intimidation.

Most election observers expect a victory for the PMLN, Mr Sharif's party. Mr Sharif was a three-time prime minister and built his political reputation by reviving economic growth. He has repeatedly fallen out with the military after pushing for more civilian control in the government, but ended up in favor of the military again in this election.

The PPP is led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2007. The party is expected to win some seats in the south, where it has a power base, and would most likely be part of the PPP. a Sharif-led coalition government.

What is at stake?

Pakistan's next government will inherit a host of problems. The economy is in shambles, terrorist attacks have flared up again and relations with neighboring countries – especially Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban – are tense.

The cost of living has soared in Pakistan, where inflation reached a record high of almost 40 percent last year. Meanwhile, gas outages and electricity outages are a frequent occurrence for the country's 240 million residents. Pakistan has had to turn to the International Monetary Fund for bailouts to keep its economy afloat and shore up its foreign exchange reserves. The country has also relied on funding from wealthy allies such as China and Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, extremist violence in Pakistan has surged since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Much of it has been carried out by the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP – an ally. and ideological twin of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

That has fueled tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Pakistani officials accusing the Taliban of offering the Pakistani Taliban a safe haven on Afghan territory, a claim Taliban officials deny. Those tensions seemed to boil over last year when Pakistan ordered all undocumented foreigners to leave the country by November 1, a measure that particularly affected Afghans.

How will the vote take place?

A day before the election, two separate explosions outside election offices in an insurgency-hit area of ​​Pakistan killed at least 22 people. The blasts were the latest in a series of attacks on election-related activities, including targeting candidates, during the campaign season.

In light of such security threats, authorities have designated half of Pakistan's approximately 90,000 polling stations as “sensitive” or “most sensitive” and deployed the military to secure them.

The polling stations close at 5 p.m. Preliminary results are expected late Thursday evening, but it could take up to three days before all votes are officially counted.

Once the count is completed, members of parliament will meet to form the government and elect the next prime minister. The election of the prime minister is expected at the end of February.

Zia ur-Rehman reporting contributed.