Thursday briefing: the stakes of the elections in Pakistan
What is at stake in Pakistan's elections?
Pakistan is holding its national elections today. Experts say they will be among the least credible in the country's history. Days before the election, Imran Khan, who was ousted as prime minister in 2022, was sentenced in two to a total of 24 years in prison. different verdicts. The verdicts were widely seen as part of a military-led campaign to sideline Khan's political party.
Tensions are running high. Yesterday there were two separate explosions outside election offices in an insurgency-hit area of Pakistan at least 22 people killed.
For more information about the elections, I contacted Christina Goldbaum, our Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief.
How is the mood in Pakistan at the moment?
Christina: The military's crackdown on Imran Khan and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, has made this one of the most lackluster election cycles we have seen in Pakistan.
There has not been the usual boisterous campaigning by political parties. Until a few weeks ago, many people doubted that the elections would actually take place in February.
At the moment, many people feel demoralized by the army's campaign of intimidation. A common refrain is that this is a “selection” – not an election – as in: The military has predetermined the winner. Then why bother voting?
How did the military intervene in the elections?
The military has taken much harder action this time, especially as Khan managed a remarkable comeback after his ouster and sparked widespread anger against the military among his supporters, which turned violent in May.
In the run-up to these elections, analysts tell me there was a feeling among the military's top brass that they needed to regain control.
They turned to their usual tactics of arresting PTI leaders and pressuring them to denounce the party. But the military is also casting a much wider net, arresting members of the elite who traditionally have strong ties to the military. They also arrested casual supporters of the party such as youth who posted pro-PTI messages on social media.
That has had a truly chilling effect, including in places like Punjab – the political heart of Pakistan – which had never experienced such a heavy hand from the military.
Who is expected to win?
Most people expect a victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif has been prime minister three times, but each term was cut short after he fell out with the military.
What will you be watching after the elections?
The next Prime Minister will inherit an economic mess, not to mention the increase in terrorist attacks over the past two years. Once the elections are over, many hope the military will turn its attention to containing militant groups in the country's tribal areas.
Since Khan was ousted, the military has also taken on a greater role in shaping Pakistan's economic policies. That could lead to friction with Sharif if he wins. Known as pro-business, he built his reputation by reviving economic growth and building major infrastructure projects.
He has also pushed for more civilian control in the government. That raises a lot of questions about how long his current relationship with the military will last.
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Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, Hamas's counterproposal for a ceasefire was rejected yesterday in Gaza. He said “surrendering to the ridiculous demands” would not restore Israel's security or free the remaining hostages. “There is no other solution than total victory,” he said. His comments appeared to undermine cautious hopes for progress toward a deal.
Background: In response to an offer negotiated by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, Hamas had submitted its own proposal. It outlined a path to the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of Hamas's remaining hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
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That's it for today's briefing. See you tomorrow. – Amelia
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Correction: Yesterday's newsletter incorrectly reported the number of Israeli hostages captured and killed on October 7. A fifth of the remaining 136 hostages died, not a fifth of the total number, which was about 240.