How special are the New York special elections?

Special elections in New York's Third Congressional District on Tuesday will determine who will replace George Santos, the former Republican congressman and serial fabulist, for the rest of the year. But the political fallout could be felt far beyond the borders of Nassau County and Queens, with lessons for both parties in November.

The contest pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known lawmaker from Nassau County who is running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who previously held the seat for three terms before leaving to run for governor. The race is expected to be close – with a major last-minute snowstorm on Election Day.

My colleague Nick Fandos, who has been closely following the race, reported today that Nassau County's powerful Republican machine is closely managing Pilip's campaign. Her election filings show that there is not a single person on her campaign payroll, an extremely unusual arrangement.

Here's our guide to the issues dominating the race, and how they could play a role in the 2024 general election.

Immigration

Republicans have embraced immigration as their central issue, hoping to capitalize on suburban voters' unease about the wave of migrants arriving in cities like New York. Pilip, who was born in Ethiopia before emigrating to Israel and then the United States, has campaigned for migrant shelters in Queens and accused her opponent and President Biden of “bringing the border crisis to our doorstep.” Republicans have spent millions blanketing the airwaves with ads portraying Suozzi as an “open-borders radical.”

For his part, Suozzi has refused to put the issue aside, making a tougher stance on immigration a central part of his campaign. He has called on Biden to close the border, and said a group of migrant men accused of assaulting police officers should be deported. He also criticized Pilip for opposing a bipartisan border bill in the Senate.

If Suozzi's strategy succeeds, his approach could become a new immigration playbook for other Democrats in swing suburban districts.

Abortion

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats have used abortion rights as a galvanizing force for their coalition. The $13 million they spent on advertising in the race — twice as much as Republicans — has characterized Pilip as a staunch opponent of abortion rights.

Pilip, an Orthodox Jew and mother of seven, describes herself as “pro-life.” In the first and only debate of the race last Thursday, she said she would not support a national abortion ban. But she declined to say which abortion restrictions she would support and attacked Suozzi for pressing her for specifics, accusing him of telling a woman what she believes.

“I have experienced a pregnancy. I suffered,” she said. “It's a personal choice. Every woman should have that choice. I'm not going to tell her what to do.”

If Pilip wins, her approach could become popular with Republican candidates, who have struggled to find a voter-friendly position on abortion since the fall of Roe.

The path to November

Democratic and Republican leaders will look to tomorrow's special election to see how their messaging strategies could play out in a crucial battleground this fall.

Control of the House of Representatives in 2025 could depend on a handful of suburban areas around New York City, such as the Third District, which stretches from the suburbs of Queens to the outskirts of Nassau County. Republicans flipped four of those districts in 2022, giving them a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

At the time, Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklyn congressman who would soon become the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, predicted those gains would be short-lived. He described the chairs as those “Republicans rent, not own.”

Special elections, which typically involve low turnout and are subject to the dynamics of idiosyncratic House districts, are not perfect predictors of a general election. Think of them as the previews for a Broadway show: they can hint at how the play might go, but nothing really counts until the curtain rises on opening night.

Or, with Jeffries' metaphor in mind, this special election could give Democrats the first hint at how long that Republican lease could last.

RFK Jr. apologizes for a Super Bowl ad

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized last night after a super PAC in support of his presidential campaign nostalgia-tinged Super Bowl ad that closely resembled a place made famous by his uncle John F. Kennedy.

The ad featured the same jingle and the same upbeat cartoons, interspersed with candid photos of Kennedy, who won the 1960 race, showing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s face. had been placed.

Some Kennedy family members were quick to criticize the ad. Many of them have denounced him for promoting unsubstantiated theories about vaccines and other matters.

Bobby Shriver, a cousin of John F. Kennedy, said on X: “My cousin's Super Bowl ad used our uncle's faces – and my mother's. She is said to be shocked by his deadly views on healthcare. Respect for science, vaccines and healthcare equality were in her DNA.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. himself, who has appealed to his legendary political family and its legacy during his candidacy, was quick to respond.

“I am so sorry if the Super Bowl ad caused pain to anyone in my family,” he wrote on X on Sunday evening. “The ad was created and aired by the American Values ​​Super PAC without any involvement or approval from my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you.”

In addition, the Democratic National Committee filed a complaint Friday accusing Kennedy and the super PAC of illegal coordination.

Kennedy is running for president as an independent. His candidacy has worried many Democrats, who fear that Kennedy — an environmental lawyer who has become a prominent purveyor of conspiracy theories — could siphon votes away from President Biden.

The super PAC has exacerbated these suspicions. A substantial portion of the funding, about $15 million, came from Timothy Mellon, a Republican who has also given $10 million to a super PAC supporting former President Donald J. Trump.

Longtime Democratic political consultant Robert Shrum wrote: “This RFK Jr. Super Bowl ad is a straight plagiarism of the 1960 JFK ad. What a fraud – and to quote Lloyd Bentsen with a minor amendment: “Bobby, you're no John Kennedy.” Instead, you are an ally of Trump.” — Rebecca Davis O'Brien

Read the full story here.