Russians know Putin will be re-elected, but many worry about what comes next

Maria and her husband, Aleksandr, are confident that President Vladimir V. Putin will secure a fifth term as Russia’s leader in this weekend’s presidential election.

But the couple, who live in Moscow with their three children, are not so sure what will come next. Foremost in their minds is the fear that Mr. Putin, emboldened by winning a new six-year term, could declare a new mobilization for soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Putin announced the first mobilization in September 2022 but recently returned, is even considering leaving the country again, his wife said.

“I only hear about mobilization – that there is a planned offensive for the summer and troops need to change,” Maria, 34, said in a WhatsApp conversation. She refused to allow the couple’s surname to be used, fearing government repercussions.

Many Russians have been concerned about a host of issues ahead of the vote, which started Friday and will last three days. Although Russian authorities have denied that a new mobilization for the war is planned, a sense of unease remains.

The concerns appear to be based on the possibility that Putin will use his unlimited power to implement changes he avoided before the election. Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, one of Russia’s few independent pollsters, said these concerns are still felt mainly by the minority of Russians who oppose the government.

Although a possible mobilization remains the biggest source of concern, there is also unrest about finances and the economy. Some Russians fear the ruble has been propped issued by the government after last year’s slump could depreciate again, raising import costs. Business owners worry about higher taxes, and opposition activists expect more crackdowns on dissent.

“People are very worried,” said Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York City who regularly visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, just as the Russian people are used to uncertainty.”

The concerns reflect the current mood in Russia, where many have learned to hope for the best but expect the worst. The uncertainty has been exacerbated by a government that experts say has become increasingly authoritarian.

After more than two decades in power, Mr. Putin is no longer held back by an opposition party in parliament or a strong civil society. He is therefore relatively free to do what he wants.

Some experts say the Kremlin could use the outcome of the vote – which is expected to be a landslide victory for Putin – to further crack down on dissent and escalate the war in Ukraine, which was intended to be a tough one special military operation’. ‘, but has become a slog that has caused hundreds of thousands of victims.

“In authoritarian elections, the results are predictable, but the consequences are not,” said Yekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist, in response to written questions from The New York Times. “If the system decides it has done a good job and all is well, the post-election period could be the time to make unpopular decisions.”

Ms Schulmann cited Putin’s last re-election in 2018 as an example, which was followed by a highly unpopular increase in Russia’s retirement age.

Russia’s elections are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, thanks to its near-total control of the media and state-owned companies, whose employees are often pressured to vote. The election machine is filtering out unwanted candidates, and opposition activists have been forced to flee or end up in Russian prisons. The country’s most prominent dissident, Aleksei A. Navalny, died last month in an Arctic penal colony where he had been imprisoned.

Although the outcome of the vote is not in dispute, the Russians are still preoccupied with the process. The vote will be the first since Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

A Moscow consultant who works with Russian companies said some of his clients had deliberately planned new stock offerings on the Moscow stock exchange to take place during what they expected to be a relatively quiet period before the election. He requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing his relationship with his clients.

Russian consumers also rushed to buy cars early this year, following auto market analysts suggested that the period before the elections may be the best time to buy, as the ruble could be devalued once the elections are over. The number of new cars sold in Russia increased by more than 80 percent in January and February compared to the same period last year. according to to Avtostat, a news website about the Russian automotive industry.

Businesses are concerned that the government will increase taxes after the elections. On Wednesday, Mr Putin said the government would set new tax rules for individuals and private entities, and experts said this most likely meant taxes would rise for both groups.

Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at consultancy PF Capital in Moscow, said companies are mainly concerned about tax increases and higher labor costs. “That would endanger Russia’s competitiveness,” he said.

Mr Nadorshin also pointed to widespread rumors of a new troop mobilization which, if it were to occur, could further restrict the labor market for companies, he said.

Mr. Volkov of the Levada Center said that after the initial shock of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that followed seven months later, most Russians were adapting to the new world. Much of this was the result of government efforts to boost morale by ensuring the country’s economy remained healthy and by injecting money into the industrial sector.

“There has been a serious redistribution of resources in favor of the majority, who feel that they can now lead a normal life without being directly involved in the war,” he said, referring to salary increases for factory workers and various social benefits.

Still, he pointed to what he said was a growing polarization between supporters and opponents of Putin.

“The mutual misunderstanding today is greater and more acute than before,” Volkov said.

Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists – those who remain in the country and those who left – fear a new crackdown on dissent.

Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, said he believed dissidents would face a stark choice between fleeing or jail after the election.

“Nothing will help; the choice will be to go to jail or leave the country,” he said in an interview interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an independent Russian news channel.

But some analysts have expressed doubt that Putin will do much more than he has already done to stamp out dissent.

‘The system cannot remain in a state of mobilization and stress forever’ said Aleksandr Kynev, a Russia-based political scientist who specializes in regional politics. “If you give too much power to the security services, they can take you out of power tomorrow,” he said. “Vladimir Putin understands it well.”

Alina Lobzina reporting contributed.