A new concern on the Ukrainian battlefield: North Korea's latest missiles

When Russia turned to North Korea's Kim Jong Un to help the country through its war with Ukraine, it came with a big shopping list that included a million artillery rounds to fire at Ukrainian troops dug into trenches in the south and east , and dozens of North Korea's newest, barely tested missiles.

Now these weapons are starting to appear, causing major concern for American and European officials. They say they fear the North's munitions could be of great importance on the battlefield, at a huge moment of vulnerability for Ukraine.

Although many of the North Korean artillery shells appear to be fake — some appear to have been manufactured decades ago — they give the Russians something to fire at Ukrainian forces, who are rationing their own dwindling supplies. The European countries promised Ukraine a massive resupply, but appear to have been able to muster only about 300,000 artillery shells for now.

But it is the missiles that are causing the most concern, from the Pentagon to NATO headquarters in Brussels. In interviews, a series of officials said they fear the Russians hope to use missiles to overwhelm Western air defenses. Although the number of missiles transferred so far is small, likely fewer than 50, U.S. and European officials believe many more could follow.

And unlike the artillery rounds, North Korea is not shipping its older equipment. An analysis by Conflict Armament Research, an organization that has documented the weapons used in Russia's war in Ukraine, has shown that the missiles supplied to Russia are more recent in design. And U.S. officials say the missiles are proving to be just as accurate as Russia's home-made equipment. Three barrages of North Korean missiles targeted Ukrainian positions around the new year, US officials say, and they believe more were used on the battlefield on Sunday.

In South Korea, officials and analysts say the war in Ukraine is giving the North something it desperately needs: a testing ground to see how its new missile arsenal, designed for a conflict with South Korea and the United States, fares against… Western-designed air defense systems. .

The turn to North Korea, as the war nears its second anniversary, reflects Russia's own struggle to keep up with the pace at which both sides are burning through their weapons stockpiles. Russia has also turned to Iran for drones, and is reportedly seeking Iranian missiles as well – although there is no evidence it has received them yet.

The majority of missiles fired into Ukraine are still produced in Russia. But if North Korea steps up its offer, Ukraine could be forced to fire costly air defense rounds, a development that could be devastating for Ukraine if additional military funding is not approved by Congress, U.S. officials said. The import has particularly alarmed senior members of NATO, who have declined to speak publicly but say they worry that the transfer of North Korean weapons could prove particularly troublesome at a time when Ukraine is uncertain about when and from who will receive the next weapons. supplies.

For the time being, the air defense is holding firm. On Tuesday, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, told Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III that he believed the Ukrainian military has sufficient air defenses to survive the winter, two senior U.S. officials said.

But if North Korea ramps up its missile shipments and Congress fails to approve additional aid, that calculus could change.

Russia already has several dozen North Korean missiles and hopes to acquire more. According to North Korean state media, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said he planned to visit North Korea soon. Russia has fired North Korean missiles into Ukraine at least three times since late December, including attacks on December 30, January 2 and January 6.

The missiles come on top of a steady stream of artillery shells, as many as a million shells, that North Korea has been sending to Russia. But the quality of those rounds is poor. Some exploded in Russian cannons, and many of the rest fell harmless in underpopulated areas.

However, quantity itself matters on the battlefield. Last summer, Ukraine fired as many as 7,000 artillery shells a day and had succeeded in damaging Russian ammunition supplies to such an extent that Russia was firing about 5,000 rounds a day, according to American and other Western analysts. Now the Ukrainians are struggling to fire 2,000 shells a day, while Russian artillery, supplemented by North Korean shells, is reaching about 10,000 shells a day, analysts said.

Yet American officials are much more concerned about North Korean missiles.

After the initial barrage, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, began a more intensive effort to rally international support to condemn the arms transfer and trying to increase pressure on North Korea to stop supplying the missiles.

U.S. officials believe that U.S. revelations about North Korean shipments have at times led Pyongyang to halt or delay further transfers since the war in Ukraine began.

The Russian transfers come at a critical time in the war in Ukraine, as further US support hangs in the balance, subject to intense political debates on Capitol Hill. Ukraine's ammunition needs will be the focus of a virtual meeting of Kiev's allies on Tuesday, chaired by Mr Austin.

The United States has supplied Ukraine with numerous air defense systems and munitions. And U.S. officials have said these systems — including Patriot batteries — have proven able to blunt the damage from Russian missile attacks.

But U.S. officials said Congress must approve an additional aid package to deliver more air defense systems and munitions.

U.S. officials say Ukraine's air defenses are a critical concern. After initial setbacks due to Western sanctions, Russia has rebuilt its industrial capacity and stockpiled missiles. But if Russia can obtain even more North Korean missiles, it will be able to more easily overcome Ukraine's defenses.

“The Ukrainians continue to be attacked,” John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said Wednesday. “They continue to come under artillery shells, air strikes, ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drone attacks from the Russians.”

It will be difficult for the United States to stop those additional shipments. North Korea has taken a more combative stance in its foreign policy in recent days. The country has stated that it will no longer seek reconciliation with the South, prompting some experts to speculate that the country may want to provoke a new conflict – although the evidence for this is patchy at best. However, the country has undoubtedly focused on strengthening ties with Russia.

Yet the nature of the renewed relationship is not clear. Russia is promising a range of technology in exchange for the North's ballistic missiles, including aircraft and advanced technological know-how. But U.S. officials do not believe Russia has yet delivered the weapons or additional ballistic missile technology.

Johannes Ismay contributed reporting from washington, and Choe Sang Hun from Seoul.