What you need to know about the race to replace George Santos

USA

After nearly a year with George Santos as local congressman, New York voters finally have the chance to elect his replacement.

Early voting has already begun in the closely watched special election for the House of Representatives, and the February 13 battle is seen as an unusually high-stakes one – both for the immediate balance of power in the House of Representatives and for the November general election.

It pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County lawmaker who is running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic congressman.

Here's what you need to know.

How we got here

Mr. Santos, a Republican, won New York's Third Congressional District in November 2022, amid a wave of Republican success. But it was only weeks before his resume began to unravel based on reporting by The New York Times and other news outlets.

His remarkable series of lies included fabricated academic degrees, a non-existent career on Wall Street and a family fortune, and even a collegiate volleyball championship. Federal prosecutors soon added 23 criminal charges accusing him of campaign fraud, credit card fraud and other crimes.

Mr. Santos survived it all until last December, when irritated colleagues — armed with a damning report from the House of Representatives Ethics Committee — voted to make him only the sixth member of the House of Representatives to be expelled. Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York then called for a special election to fill his seat.

Meet the candidates

Republicans nominated Ms. Pilip, who boasts a remarkable personal story but a relatively thin political resume. She was born in Ethiopia, served in the Israeli army and became a US citizen in 2009. She won her first and only office in the part-time Nassau County Legislature in 2021, and is still a registered Democrat despite campaigning for the opposing party. .

Ms Pilip, 44, has pledged to crack down on illegal immigration and address the region's painfully high cost of living. But she has run an under-the-radar campaign, making it difficult to determine her positions on many proposed abortion restrictions or on former President Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Suozzi, 61, is considered a political moderate. He has called on state Democrats to tighten New York's bail laws and touted his time leading the bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus. Yet he was also a reliable voice for President Biden and the Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives.

A referendum on immigration (and other issues)

The race has become a proxy battle on many of the key issues dividing Washington, none more so than immigration. Here are the candidates' positions on important policy questions.

Immigration: The massive influx of migrants at the southern border and in New York City has helped fuel a wave of voter discontent in the largely suburban district. Mr. Suozzi's response was a bipartisan agreement in the Senate that would limit asylum applications and close the border if there were too many attempts to cross. Although it features a Republican wish list, Ms. Pilip characterized the deal as “the legalization of the invasion of our country.” She supports a stricter, partisan alternative.

Abortion rights: Mr. Suozzi said he would vote to restore federal abortion rights and has the support of Planned Parenthood. Ms. Pilip said she is against a national abortion ban. But she is personally opposed to abortion and has not expressed positions on other abortion restrictions that Republicans have put forward, such as one that would prevent the Pentagon from covering the costs of service members traveling for the procedure.

Israel-Hamas warBoth candidates have sought to build unwavering support for Israel amid the war with Hamas. Ms. Pilip, an Orthodox Jew, is trying to win over Jewish Democrats, alarmed by anti-Israel sentiment on the left. Mr Suozzi has argued that he would be more valuable as a bulwark against it within his party.
Presidential politics: Mr. Suozzi has been a longtime ally of President Biden, but as the president's popularity declines, he has distanced himself. Ms. Pilip's position on Mr. Trump appears to have changed: She initially said she would not support him if he were convicted in his ongoing criminal cases, but recently told CNN that he was a “great president” and “didn't commit a single crime” when he tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Santos: The infamous former congressman was surprisingly absent from the race. Despite campaigning together in 2022, Ms. Pilip has strongly denounced Mr. Santos. The disgust is mutual: Mr. Santos has said he will not vote this time because Ms. Pilip is not conservative enough.

What do the polls say?

Public opinion polls have been sparse but indicate a statistical dead heat.

a Siena College Survey conducted for Newsday and released Thursday showed Mr. Suozzi leading 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, a lead within the survey's margin of error. The same poll showed Biden narrowly trailing Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head showdown.

More than $16 million in outside spending has already flowed into the race from super PACs, labor unions and other special interest groups, according to Federal Election Commission data. As of this week, Democrats have outspent Republicans by about two to one.

But in a race expected to see low turnout, Republicans could overcome the spending disadvantage with their enviable political machine in Nassau County.

This is what it means for the House

Republicans currently hold a slim 219-212 majority in the House of Representatives, meaning they can afford to lose just three votes on a partisan bill. That narrow margin and the party's warring ideological factions have made the chamber almost ungovernable at times.

A Democratic pick-up in New York would take away another vote; a Republican hold could provide a small but welcome amount of breathing room.

The difference could have a profound impact on Republicans' ambitions in the House of Representatives this year. Their ability to oust Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or even Mr. Biden could be made or broken by a single vote.

But it could also shape more basic functions of government in the coming months. Starting in March, Congress faces a series of deadlines to keep the government open and funded and to reauthorize key programs Americans rely on, such as the Federal Aviation Administration and financial aid for needy families.

Looking ahead to November

The district stretches from the suburbs of Queens to the suburbs of Nassau County and includes a socially and economically diverse group of voters. That makes it an important indicator for this fall's general election.

The district is among the most affluent in the country, with an average income of $130,000 a year and Gold Coast mansions selling for tens of millions of dollars. Nearly 60 percent of the district is white, but there are significant ethnic or religious groups that could have a major impact on the race. About 20 percent of registered voters are Asian American, and nearly as many are Jewish.

Mr. Biden won the Third District in 2020 by eight points, and Democrats still enjoy a slight partisan registration advantage. But immigrant enclaves and suburban commuters have since moved to the right in successive elections. Both he and Mr Trump are now deeply unpopular there.

Whoever wins, the outcome will likely decide candidates in a handful of coveted suburban swing districts on Long Island, New York's Hudson Valley and more across the country.