The Sudanese military comes under scrutiny after a major city falls to rival forces

Tuesday’s rapid takeover of a major city in Sudan’s agricultural breadbasket by the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces has sent shockwaves across the country, casting doubt on the power of its rival – the Sudanese army – and creating a new and potentially deadlier phase in the battle opened. eight-month civil war that devastated one of Africa’s largest countries.

The paramilitary group was needed for that only four days to conquer the cityWad Madani, where tens of thousands of people had fled the capital Khartoum, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) northwest, when the war began in April. The fall of Wad Madani has sent them fleeing again, dealing a huge blow to the prestige of an army that had promised to protect them.

“Depression is an understatement of how we feel,” said Omnia Elgunaid, a 21-year-old international relations graduate who fled from Wad Madani on Tuesday to a village further south. “People are devastated because they now feel unsafe all over the country.”

The army confirmed in a statement Tuesday evening that it had withdrawn from the city and – in a highly unusual move – said it had begun an investigation into the reasons for this defeat.

The war has already killed at least 10,000 people, although Sudanese health workers and United Nations officials say this is a vast underestimate.

According to the United Nations, about 300,000 people have fled Wad Madani in recent days. Many of them, sick and hungry, left the city on foot and walked for hours to neighboring countries, dragging suitcases and sheets with their meager belongings.

Aid agencies have largely halted operations in Wad Madani and the wider El Gezira state, and the UN has moved its staff quieter areas in the east of the country or across the border with South Sudan. Aid workers, who have made the city a hub for their efforts, are concerned about the prospect of looting of humanitarian supplies and warehouses.

“The Sudanese people have lived through eight months of horror and the humanitarian situation continues to worsen,” said Sofie Karlsson, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Sudan. “When your only choice is to leave on foot with what you can carry, you know conditions have reached an all-time low.”

Amid the tumult, there has been a sharp focus on the battlefield tactics of the army and its chief, General al-Burhan.

In Rufaa, a town about 50 kilometers north of Wad Madani, the army used a shipping container to prevent paramilitary forces from crossing a bridge, a desperate deterrent that failed to halt their advance, residents said.

Experts say part of the reason for the military’s recent setbacks can be traced back to its history.

Under former dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the Sudanese army has largely outsourced the task of ground fighting to tribal militias such as the Janjaweedthe hated group that terrorized the Darfur region in the 2000s and later became the Rapid Support Forces.

Now that the military is fighting a tough war in a vast country, its weaknesses are quickly emerging, said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group.

“It was a highly politicized army, people were often promoted because of ideology and nepotism. It became very corrupt,” Mr Boswell said. “The military has never had to fight a war like this before and has proven itself to be unfit for purpose.”

The fall of Wad Madani shows that the failures extend all the way to the top of the military, said Kholood Khair of Confluence Advisory, a Sudanese research group.

“Something has gone terribly wrong within the top brass of the Sudanese armed forces,” she said. “It’s something that even some of them don’t understand.”

The capture of Wad Madani could pave the way for the paramilitary group to launch new attacks on other major cities, including Gedaref in the east and Kosti in the south.

Buoyed by their success, the paramilitaries may now try to spark an uprising within the army, analysts say.

In a post on social media on Tuesday, the RSF commander said: Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan, said its forces would not “become the alternative army” – a comment that many observers saw as an attempt to undermine the army chief, General al-Burhan.

Whether General al-Burhan can keep his job, Mr. Boswell said, depends on whether other Sudanese generals are willing to make a potentially destabilizing leadership change in the middle of a war and risk splitting their own ranks.

General al-Burhan is the main interlocutor of the military’s foreign backers. Mr Boswell added: “Other generals may need to assess whether removing him could damage those connections.”

As the conflict enters a new phase, experts say there is also a greater risk of foreign interference. This includes neighboring countries such as Eritrea, whose autocratic leader Met in September and November with the army chief of Sudan.

The United Arab Emirates has provided weapons and medical support to paramilitary forces, charges it denies. A destabilized Sudan would also be worrying for Saudi Arabia, which sits across the Red Sea.

A broader regional conflict would be “a nightmare scenario, not just for Sudan but for the world,” said Ms. Khair, the analyst.

For now, many Sudanese hope they can find food and shelter. On Wednesday, Ms Elgunaid said she woke up with a fever, but none of the pharmacies in the village she was in were open. Phone and internet connections were slow and many people were still sleeping in the open, she said.

“We have no idea what we’re going to do next,” she says. “We all feel trapped.”

Declan Walsh contributed reporting from Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.