Five lessons from the Democrats' recapture of a seat in the House of Representatives

Tom Suozzi's victory in a special House election in New York on Tuesday gave Democrats a much-needed dose of election-year optimism and a model for how to deal with one of their biggest political problems: the influx of migrants flooding the southern border.

Abortion was also at the forefront again, but the race for the rocking chair of Queens and Long Island also brought with it local issues that were difficult to replicate. The candidates were vying to replace George Santos, a serial fabulist who turned the district into a national laughing stock, and a snowstorm on Election Day gave Suozzi an eleventh boost.

The outcome will reduce Republicans' razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, but that party also emerged from the extraordinarily close finish with reasons for optimism as they prepare for fall races in districts like this one, where President Biden is unpopular.

Here are five takeaways from the results.

A new Democratic playbook on immigration

Democrats have fought for years to defend themselves against Republican attacks when it comes to immigration and illegal crossings at the southern border. Mr. Suozzi may have just helped write a playbook on how to do that, especially during a handful of crucial House contests in New York.

The issue had everything to do with a political storm. The number of illegal border crossings reached a record high in December, and the arrival of more than 170,000 migrants in New York City has brought the sense of chaos close to home.

But instead of avoiding the issue, Mr. Suozzi made the migrant crisis a centerpiece of his campaign. He called on Mr. Biden to close the border and called on local news for the deportation of a group of migrant men accused of attacking police officers in Times Square.

When his opponent, Mazi Pilip, condemned a bipartisan deal in the Senate that included tough border security provisions that conservatives had called for, Mr. Suozzi went on the offensive, accusing her of putting partisanship over national security.

“People want to say immigration is a Republican issue and abortion is a Democratic issue,” he said. “These are the issues people care about.”

The Republican House majority just shrunk

Speaker Mike Johnson was already struggling to steer his unwieldy majority in Washington. It's going to be a lot more difficult.

When Mr. Suozzi takes the oath of office in the coming weeks, Republicans will outnumber Democrats in the House 219 to 213. That means Republican leaders can afford to lose just two votes on a partisan bill.

The difference could significantly limit Republicans' election-year ambitions, including the possible impeachment of Mr. Biden. It will also affect their bargaining position in the negotiations to avoid a government shutdown in March.

Experience still matters, and voters liked bipartisanship

These are two of the most pejorative words in an election campaign: 'career politician'. But they may have helped put Mr. Suozzi over the top.

Mr. Suozzi, 61, has spent nearly three decades in public office. With wars raging abroad and Americans yearning for normalcy as the Covid pandemic subsides, he cast himself as a proven lawmaker, ready to step in and work across the aisle on immigration and on one of the suburban district's top priorities: repealing the cap on the state and local tax deduction, or SALT.

“People are tired of extremism and finger pointing,” he said repeatedly. “And nothing gets done.”

There were some costs. Republicans mined Suozzi's reputation to produce a series of damaging ads portraying him as weak on immigration and border security.

But in a shortened race, Mr. Suozzi compensated them with a deep knowledge of policy, as well as an understanding of Long Island's unique breed of socially liberal, tax-hating moderates. He deftly targeted smaller immigrant communities and knew when to stick with his party and when to distance himself.

Ms. Pilip, a 44-year-old black immigrant and Israeli military veteran, offered voters another attractive quality in politics: a fresh face, free of political baggage. But her inexperience showed. She bumbled through the lone debate, giving convoluted answers on abortion rights and gun safety, and telling voters to simply trust her ability to deliver on other issues, like the SALT deduction.

An ill-timed snowstorm helped the Democrats

An Election Day snowstorm blanketed much of the district with half a foot of snow on Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation falling during the morning. Turnout plummeted, and Republicans were disproportionately affected.

That's because Democrats tend to participate in early and absentee voting in larger numbers, and built an early lead. In this case, Mr. Suozzi started Tuesday with thousands of votes.

Republicans have more than made up for it in previous election days, when they dominated in-person voting. But with roads covered and schools canceled, there simply wasn't enough time for Nassau County's vaunted Republican machine to close the gap. Apparently even private snow plows hired by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, were not enough.

Santos' shadow still hurt Republicans

Mr. Santos was not on the ballot. By his own account, he did not even vote for a successor. But Democrats involved in the race said the federally charged serial liar turned out to be one of their biggest turnout machines.

Republican leaders broke with Santos a year ago and hoped that the House of Representatives' vote to expel him in December would finally put him out of their minds.

Voters were not so quick to turn the page. Many said they were particularly put off by Ms. Pilip's under-the-radar campaign. Mr. Suozzi amplified their concerns by calling her “Santos 2.0.”

“There are a lot of people who didn't vote last time who realized their vote matters,” said Howard Kroplink, 74, a Democrat who voted for Mr. Suozzi.

Ellen Jan reporting contributed.