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Super Bowl LVIII projections: Chiefs meet 49ers in rematch of 2020 game

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The Super Bowl LVIII showdown in Las Vegas has begun. In two weeks, the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs will defend their crown against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.

Jeff Howe breaks down the matchup before The Athletic's projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team's chances of achieving football immortality.

Super Bowl LVIII preview

So much for the regular season woes.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes shined against the NFL's best defense, completing 30 of 39 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown in a 17-10 win against the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the Ravens settled down once Chiefs head coach Andy Reid finished his script, but Mahomes was efficient, flawless and delivered when needed, as evidenced by his late 32-yard strike to Marquez Valdes-Scantling on third-and- second place. 9 to secure the victory.

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The Chiefs didn't beat themselves, which has been the case more often this season. An important reason? Mahomes stuck with the players they got here. He was 23 of 24 for 176 yards and a touchdown as he targeted tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isaiah Pacheco, who added 24 carries for 68 yards and a score.

And once again, the Chiefs defense was phenomenal, shutting down MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and forcing three crucial turnovers. The Chiefs have held four of their last five opponents to 17 points or fewer.

But hold off on the Chiefs' coronation. While the 49ers should have been here – if their dominance in the NFC regular season carried any weight – they were anything but sure contenders when they fell 17 points behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

Well, so much for quarterback Brock Purdy's inability to lead the 49ers from behind, which he has now done twice in a row with increasing levels of difficulty. Neither Purdy nor anyone on the 49ers will be deterred by the Mahomes mystique, even if some have already succumbed to it.

This can't be a quarterback battle, though, so don't fall into the Mahomes-Purdy trap. If the 49ers want to win their first Super Bowl in 29 years, they'll have to do it on the spot with Christian McCaffrey and company. The Chiefs ranked 18th in yards and 24th in yards per attempt during the regular season, so they are vulnerable to the rush.

This is a battle with historical implications. The Chiefs are participating in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years and trying to win their third time in that span. They almost failed to become the first back-to-back champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots, and they would lay claim to being the first dynasty of the post-Patriots era. If the franchise wins its fourth Super Bowl, it would rank fifth in history.

The 49ers are looking to revive their glory days and avenge a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs from four years ago. If they can win their sixth Super Bowl, they would tie the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for most all-time.

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As the regular season gives way to the Super Bowl run, Patrick Mahomes remains inevitable

(Photo: Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

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