The long isolation of Syria’s al-Assad is over

When a devastating earthquake struck in February, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad saw an opportunity in disaster. He called for an end to international sanctions against his country and within days some were suspended. Other Middle Eastern states sent planeloads of aid, and senior officials from those countries soon followed for the first high-level visits in years.

In the three months that followed, Mr. al-Assad has made a remarkable comeback, from more than a decade of near-total global isolation following a series of atrocities, to a near-committed return to the Arab fold. And on Friday, he is expected to attend an annual summit of Arab leaders for the first time in 13 years, the most definitive sign yet of his return to embracing the region.

Mr Assad was shunned for brutally suppressing his country’s Arab Spring uprising in 2011, which turned into a civil war that has stalled but still has not ended. His government has been accused of widespread torture, the use of chemical weapons against its own population and forced displacement of populations in a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.

“The fact that Assad is returning strong and untouched sends a signal to Arab leaders,” said Dareen Khalifa, a Syria expert with the International Crisis Group. “Ultimately it has a huge impact. Assad has this victory lap in the region and dictators know you can get away with it.”

Analysts said the Syrian war helped prepare for what the world is now seeing in Ukraine. The government’s brutal crackdown on its own people and the continued existence of Mr. al-Assad was largely due to the extensive military support of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. But Russia has never been held responsible for the attacks it has carried out in Syria, including attacks on hospitals.

And since the early volleys of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the legacy of Mr Putin’s role in the Syrian war has grown. The Russians have used some of the same military tactics used in Syria, such as sieges and starvation. The Syrian war offered Putin other possible lessons, analysts said at the time, confirming that international norms can be violated without dire consequences.

The Biden administration has sent mixed signals about Arab countries restoring relations with Syria, while making it clear that the United States has no plans to do so. Last week, a group of US congressmen introduced the Assad Anti-Normalization Act, an attempt to hold al-Assad’s government and its backers accountable.

“Syria’s readmission to the Arab League indicates to Assad that his barbaric behavior is acceptable,” Representative French Hill, a Republican from Arkansas, recently said.

In February Human Rights Watch insisted Arab countries rushing to normalize ties with Assad’s government, to at least push for accountability and reform. Without it, the group warned, Arab states risk endorsing and aiding the Syrian government’s widespread abuses.

Friday’s Arab League meeting hosted by Saudi Arabia in Jeddah will be the first in which Mr al-Assad has participated since 2010. And while his administration is still subject to US and European sanctions, he does not seem to have paid a high price for reinstatement in the club of Arab leaders.

Mr al-Assad, who arrived in Jeddah on Thursday night, could receive a lukewarm welcome to the summit, with members divided over whether and how to mend their relationship with the Syrian dictator. But his presence alone is a powerful symbol.

Most Arab governments cut ties with Syria early in the war, when Mr. al-Assad besieged entire cities and sent millions of refugees to neighboring countries. The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership in 2011 and Saudi Arabia, one of the leading regional powers, backed some of the rebel groups fighting Mr al-Assad’s rule with funding and weapons in secret coordination with the United States. were delivered.

But as the years passed and Mr. al-Assad clung to power and regained control of large parts of Syria, regional leaders changed their approach.

Now many are openly dealing with his government, arguing that shunning him was of little use. This way, according to officials, they can at least try to influence developments in Syria that affect the entire region, such as the flow of drugs across the borders and the fate of the millions of refugees who remain behind in neighboring countries, where officials say they are putting their resources under pressure and caused resentment among the citizens.

“For the past 11 or 12 years, there has been this policy of maximum pressure and isolation to get some concessions from the regime,” said Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian journalist and senior diplomatic editor for Asharq Al-Awsat, a Saudi newspaper. “Now the new approach is the other way around: let’s give the regime more incentives, such as legitimacy and political normalization, and in return we hope that the regime will enter these fronts.”

At a meeting in Jordan on May 1, a group of Arab foreign ministers pledged to convene a series of meetings aimed at resolving the many issues arising from Syria’s protracted war. A week after the meeting Members of the Arab League voted to take over Syria.

Their decision stated the importance of solving “the burden” that refugees pose and the “danger of drug smuggling”. But addressing those issues was not intended to be a precondition for Syria’s return, which took effect immediately.

“I don’t think there are even any questions let alone conditions,” said Ms. Khalifa.

The Syrian foreign minister, who attended the meeting in Jordan, agreed to take immediate steps to facilitate “the voluntary and safe return of refugees,” a statement from the meeting said. Syria also agreed to work with Jordan and Iraq to stop the flow of illicit drugs across its borders – including the amphetamine captagon – and to “determine the sources of drug production and smuggling in Syria.”

However, it is unclear whether Arab countries have a mechanism to ensure that Syria keeps its promises.

Fighting drug smuggling is a particular concern for Saudi Arabia, a key market for Captagon, where officials last month declared a nationwide “war on drugs.” But in 2021, an investigation by The New York Times found that much of captagon production and distribution is overseen by the Syrian Army’s Fourth Armored Division, an elite unit commanded by Mr. al-Assad’s brother, one of the most powerful men in the country.

Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, longtime regional rivals of Iran, would like to see Mr. al-Assad is curbing the influence of Tehran, his closest ally. But there is little indication so far that the Syrian government will oblige.

Proponents of the Syria takeover say the status quo was unworkable.

Syria’s absence from the Arab League was a “strategic mistake,” according to Libyan columnist Jibreel al-Obaidi. wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday. Reintegrating the region is necessary to reduce foreign influence in the country — including that of Iran, Russia, Turkey and the United States, he argued.

All four of these countries intervened in the Syrian war and supported the government or various opposition groups.

Even in the Gulf, where renewed relations with Syria are well underway, many are uncomfortable with normalizing relations.

“Hopefully we will remember the torment of the Syrian people when meeting al-Assad,” it read. head of an opinion piece in the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas, by columnist Hamed al-Humoud.

However, the only government that has openly opposed normalizing relations with Mr al-Assad is that of Qatar.

“The Syrian people are still displaced, innocent people are in prison,” Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said last month. “Qatar’s decision as a country, individually, is not to take any steps unless there is political progress.”

Ahmad Al Omran in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and Hwaida Sad in Beirut contributed reporting.